Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS Dodge City, KS

251 
WWUS53 KDDC 222302
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
602 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

KSC145-165-222330-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0145.000000T0000Z-140622T2330Z/
RUSH KS-PAWNEE KS-
602 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
PAWNEE AND RUSH COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 601 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TIMKEN...AND
MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ASH VALLEY...FRIZELL...LARNED...ROZEL AND BURDETT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS!

&&

LAT...LON 3834 9903 3816 9901 3818 9956 3844 9959
      3863 9937 3869 9903
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 355DEG 17KT 3843 9921

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

18

413 
WWUS53 KDDC 222326
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
626 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

KSC145-165-222336-
/O.EXP.KDDC.SV.W.0145.000000T0000Z-140622T2330Z/
RUSH KS-PAWNEE KS-
626 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN PAWNEE AND RUSH
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 630 PM CDT/530 PM MDT/...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
 HOWEVER...SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE
WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3834 9903 3816 9901 3818 9956 3844 9959
      3863 9937 3869 9903
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 355DEG 17KT 3832 9920

$$

18

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
158 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2014

...Updated long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

Short range models indicate an upper level shortwave ejecting east
out of the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains this
evening setting off thunderstorms across western and central Kansas
overnight. Ample low/mid level moisture remains locked in across
central and much of western Kansas ahead of an approaching cold
front from the northwest. As the upper level shortwave kicks out
into the high plains, an associated jet maxima is projected to
intensify as it shifts eastward across northeastern Colorado into
western Nebraska and northern portions of western Kansas. The
increasing dynamic support aloft, combined with plenty of low
level forcing as the cold front pushes through, will support
thunderstorm development across the area this evening into early
Monday morning. NAM/GFS model soundings show steep low/mid level
lapse rates early this evening with SBCAPE values still in excess
of 2000 J/KG and favorable enough vertical shear profiles to
support the potential for severe storms. The primary threat looks
to be large hail initially with the addition of damaging winds
going into this evening. Enough veering exists that an isolated
tornado cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms.
Additionally, the potential for periods of heavy rainfall exists
with the strongest storms with PW values well in excess of 1.5
inches based on the model soundings. Localized flooding could be
an issue, especially during the mid to late evening hours. Any
lingering storms Monday morning are expected to taper off west
to east by early to mid afternoon.

Temperatures will easily fall into the 60s(F) tonight across
southwest and much of central Kansas in wake of a cold front pushing
through western Kansas. The cooler air, not to mention the help of
widespread rainfall, will help drop temperatures. Highs are expected
only up into the 80s(F) Monday afternoon as a north to northeasterly
flow behind the departing front allows slightly cooler air to filter
down into western Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

Several subtle upper level disturbances embedded in a westerly
flow will cross the Central High Plains through mid week. As one
of these disturbances move out into the central plains Monday
night a moist upslope flow will be present north of a stationary
front located in Oklahoma. Convection developing over eastern
Colorado ahead of this next upper level disturbance late Monday
will move east/southeast along the low level moisture axis. At this
time the NAM and GFS differ on where this moisture axis will be but
at this time based on the 700mb baroclinic zone will continue to
favor the slightly further south NAM solution on track and timing
of the Monday night/early Tuesday convection.

By Tuesday night the surface boundary across Oklahoma will begin
to lift north as a warm front with moisture and warm air advection
improving north of this front. Each day this area of moisture and
lift will be a little further north than the previous night so
overnight precipitation chances will gradually shift further north
mid week.

Temperatures will warm in the 850mb to 700mb level mid week and
based on the mixing potential from the model soundings and
temperatures in the 850mb to 700mb level at 00z Thursday and 00z
Friday the previous forecast still looks on track with
temperatures rebounding back into the 90s. Gusty
south/southeasterly winds can also be expected mid to late week as
an area of low pressure develops along the lee of the Rockies.
These gusty winds will begin to draw more humid air back to
western Kansas late week and early this weekend. This will give
rise to some widely scattered thunderstorms near the Colorado
border late week. Improving chances for thunderstorms across all
of western Kansas early this weekend as the next more significant
upper level trough approaches the central Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

Thunderstorms are likely across central and portions of southwest
Kansas late this afternoon and evening, potentially affecting all
three TAF sites with MVFR cigs/vsbys. IFR cigs/vsbys will be
possible with the strongest storms. Low level stratus is expected
to develop behind a cold front as it moves through southwest and
central Kansas late this evening through the overnight hours. MVFR
cigs will be possible in the vicinity of all TAF sites overnight
with periods of IFR cigs possible generally after 06Z. Winds will
remain light and variable through early this evening as a surface
trough across southwest Kansas moves very little during the period.
An approaching cold front will then push through western Kansas
mid to late evening turning winds north to northeasterly 15 to
30kt. These winds will subside below 20kt by daybreak Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  83  63  86 /  80  20  20  30
GCK  60  83  63  86 /  80  10  30  40
EHA  60  85  63  86 /  60  10  40  40
LBL  62  85  64  87 /  70  10  40  40
HYS  60  83  63  85 /  80  10  10  20
P28  65  86  67  87 /  80  30  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...JJohnson

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
329 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-230830-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
329 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014 /229 AM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HAIL UP TO GOLFBALLS AND
WIND OVER 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL OF STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. CHECK LATER FORECASTS AND
OUTLOOKS FOR UPDATED AND MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
508 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     HAIL             DODGE CITY              37.79N 100.04W
06/22/2014  E0.75 INCH       FORD               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS REPORTED.

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
516 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             3 SW DODGE CITY         37.73N 100.05W
06/22/2014  M1.00 INCH       FORD               KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

MRUSSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
527 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     HAIL             5 SE VICTORIA           38.80N 99.08W
06/22/2014  E2.75 INCH       ELLIS              KS   PUBLIC

            HAIL WAS GOLF BALL TO BASEBALL SIZE.

&&

GERARD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
528 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

KSZ031-046-222315-
ELLIS-RUSH-
528 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RUSH AND SOUTHEASTERN ELLIS
COUNTIES...

AT 523 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LORETTA...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3836 9904 3839 9955 3880 9944 3881 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 010DEG 13KT 3860 9922

18

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
540 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 SSE HOWELL            37.70N 100.14W
06/22/2014  E70 MPH          FORD               KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL WAS ALSO REPORTED.

&&

MRUSSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
541 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     HAIL             6 SSE HOWELL            37.70N 100.14W
06/22/2014  E1.50 INCH       FORD               KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

MRUSSELL