Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
601 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2014

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

Short range models indicate an upper level shortwave pushing across
the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains tonight creating
thunderstorm chances lee of the Rockies through early Sunday. As
the shortwave approaches, moisture will continue to advect northward
into central and much of western Kansas ahead of a developing
surface low in extreme eastern Colorado. Although the flow aloft
will remain fairly weak, plenty of instability combined with
increased low level convergence in the vicinity of the surface
trough will be enough to support thunderstorm development lee of
the Rockies late this afternoon. A few of these storms could drift
into west central and portions of southwest Kansas this evening
through the overnight hours. The upper level shortwave will move
further east across the high plains Sunday dislodging the surface
low/trough into western Kansas and shifting the focus for
thunderstorm development along with it. Although the flow aloft
will remain fairly weak, steep low/mid level lapse rates and
SBCAPE values in excess of 3000 J/KG ahead of the surface trough
will be enough to support strong to potentially lower threshold
severe storms. The potential for periods of heavy rainfall with
the strongest storms exist as well with NAM/GFS model soundings
indicating PW values well in excess of 1.5 inches. Localized
flooding could be an issue, especially going into Sunday evening.

As a low level southerly flow prevails across central and western
Kansas tonight, moisture advection into the region will help keep
surface dewpoints well up into the 50s(F) to the lower 60s(F)
tonight. Look for lows only down into the mid to upper 60s(F)
early Sunday morning with near 70F likely in portions of central
and south central Kansas. Little change to the air mass is expected
from today into Sunday, so highs can be expected back up into the
90s(F) once again Sunday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

Widespread convection will continue Sunday night as a cold front
moves across western Kansas. MCS development still appears
possible overnight based on improving low level frontogenesis and
mid level instability ahead of an upper level disturbance as it
crosses the Central High Plains. Given the high preciptable water
values along the low level thta-e axis the main hazard overnight
will veer away from large hail and strong winds early and become
more of a heavy rainfall event.

The steady rainfall will taper off early Monday as the cold front
moves into Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle. Given the decreasing
clouds and 850mb temperature trends from 00z Monday to 00z Tuesday
will keep highs mainly in the mid 80s Monday afternoon.

ECMWF and GFS may differ on timing and track, however both agree
that several upper level disturbances will cross the Central
Plains from Monday night through at early Thursday. A low level
moisture axis will be in place across portions of eastern Colorado
and western Kansas as each of these disturbance passes which
continues to support daily precipitation chances. Monday and
Tuesday the better opportunity for precipitation appears be near
the Colorado border and across southwest Kansas given where the
location of low level moisture axis, afternoon instability, and
lift will be located by the GFS and ECMWF. The surface boundary
will then lift north as a warm front towards Nebraska mid week and
the 850mb and 700mb temperatures will begin to warm. Based on the
warming the GFS and ECMWF has in the 850mb to 700mb level late
week the latest CRExtendFcst_Init looks on track so will not stray
far. Precipitation chances mid to late week are expected to shift
from southwest Kansas into north central Kansas as the better lift
north of the warm front moves into northern Kansas and mid levels
warm across southwest Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

Scattered thunderstorms over extreme west central Kansas are forecast
by the HRRR and other convective allowing models to diminish in
intensity before reaching the highway 83 corridor by mid evening.
Southerly winds will continue overnight, with diminishing gusts
around sunset. A frontal boundary will be the focus for thunderstorm
development again by mid afternoon Sunday, which will have a good
chance of affecting he local terminals in the late afternoon with
heavy rains and gusty winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  93  64  84 /  10  60  90  20
GCK  68  94  63  83 /  20  70  80  20
EHA  67  95  61  85 /  40  60  70  20
LBL  68  94  64  85 /  10  60  70  20
HYS  68  90  63  83 /  20  60  80  20
P28  70  93  69  87 /  10  50  90  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Russell

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
433 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-221000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
433 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014 /333 PM MDT SAT JUN 21 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL OF STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. CHECK LATER FORECASTS AND
OUTLOOKS FOR UPDATED AND MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED WEST OF A LAKIN TO ULYSSES LINE
THROUGH SUNSET.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

BURGERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
445 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

KSZ061-212230-
HAMILTON-
345 PM MDT SAT JUN 21 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HAMILTON COUNTY...

AT 343 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COOLIDGE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3826 10205 3827 10155 3783 10157 3775 10205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 228DEG 23KT 3797 10194

18

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
500 PM MDT SAT JUN 21 2014

KSZ061-220000-
HAMILTON-
500 PM MDT SAT JUN 21 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HAMILTON COUNTY...

AT 458 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF SYRACUSE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3826 10205 3827 10157 3826 10156 3800 10156
      3774 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 207DEG 19KT 3807 10184

18

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>