Tornado Warning 6, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

459 
WWUS54 KCRP 272107
SVSCRP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
407 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

TXC025-297-272130-
/O.CON.KCRP.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-140527T2130Z/
BEE-LIVE OAK-
407 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN LIVE OAK AND NORTHWESTERN BEE COUNTIES...

AT 402 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WHITSETT...OR 7
MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAMPBELLTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  INTERSTATE 37...
  CHOKE CANYON...
  PAWNEE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 
GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING 
FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 2870 9801 2870 9799 2863 9791 2843 9834
      2861 9834 2879 9810
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 326DEG 21KT 2864 9823

$$

CB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1228 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE DUE TO
SHRA/TSRAS...MAINLY FOR ALI AND VCT TAF SITES. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE
BEST CHC IS FCST TO MOVE INLAND FROM THE COAST AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF S TX BY THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN CHCS DECREASE TONIGHT.
MVFR CIGS DVLP TONIGHT THEN LIFT AND BECOME SCT THRU MID MORNING
ON WED. THERE IS A CHC OF PRECIP ON WED...HOWEVER WILL NOT MENTION
IN LATTER PART OF TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TODAY'S FORECAST DUE TO
MESO AND MICRO SCALE FEATURES. SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW
CONVECTION RIDING SW ALONG THE COAST THRU THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE
RUC PROGS PRECIP TO SHIFT INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE ANOTHER MODEL PROGS CONVECTION TO MOVE ENE.
LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGHEST CAPE/LI AND LOWEST CIN ALONG THE
COAST. BASED ON LAPS AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AM EXPECTING
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NE CWA WITH LESSER ACTIVITY TO
THE S AND W. IN ADDITION...THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVG INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS ALONG THE OUTFLOW BDRY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS
IT CONTINUES TO SHIFT SE ACROSS THE WATERS THRU THE REMAINDER OF
THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO DVLP WITH THE BEST ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE ACROSS THE MID
SECTIONS OF THE CWA DUE TO STRONGEST INSTABILITY SHIFTING INLAND
WHILE THE COAST STABILIZES SOMEWHAT. AS FOR THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...SUSTAINED WINDS ARE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THEREFORE
HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA. HOWEVER...CONTD THE SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THE OUTFLOW
BDRY. WILL CONT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THRU THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
EXPECTED ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE AT THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND POSSIBLY IMPACT THE VCT TERMINAL. HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS REMARKS WITH TEMPO THUNDER. AFTER THIS INITIAL ROUND
OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY BUT HAVE NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS YET UNTIL
TRENDS BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED. REFINEMENTS WILL BE LIKELY IN
LATER FORECASTS. A RETURN TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN TONIGHT AT ALI/VCT/CRP.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SHORT TERM. THIS FEATURE
WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY ALONG THE RED RIVER AND BE
LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS BY TONIGHT. WINDS HAVE RETURNED TO A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION OVER THE COASTAL LOCATIONS AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA RETREATS. A FEW STREAMER
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED RECENTLY AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

TO THE NORTH ACROSS SAN ANTONIO/S AREA...MCS IS LOCATED ROUGHLY
ALONG A LINE FROM SOMERVILLE TO BASTROP TO AROUND KERRVILLE. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...PERHAPS
ENCOUNTERING NORTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...FURTHER
SUSTAINING THE CONVECTION. FAVORED SPOTS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE OVER THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS REGION...WHERE LIKELY POPS ARE SITUATED. PW VALUES WILL
REMAIN AROUND 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING MCS.
ALONG WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL OF 5 TO 6 INCHES YESTERDAY AND LOWER
FFG GUIDANCES VALUES NOW...THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES...AND EXTEND THE
WATCH THROUGH 00Z. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TO THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. SUFFICIENT SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. POPS WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 40
PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AGAIN LOCATED OVER
THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...DID NOT ALTER TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH IN
THE SHORT TERM. HIGHS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER TODAY AND TOMORROW
WITH MID/UPPER 90S OUT WEST TO MID/UPPER 80S OVER THE EAST. HIGHS
COULD BE TEMPERED THOUGH IF ANY LOCATIONS RECEIVE RAINFALL BEFORE
PEAK HEATING...WHICH WOULD MOST LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...LITTLE CHANGES
NEEDED  TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. MODELS INDICATE UPPER LVL LOW
WILL BE OVER NORTH LOUISIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF STILL SHOWS
THE LOW HOLDING TOGETHER A BIT LONGER THAN THE GFS...BUT WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LVL JET STREAK
OVER THE REGION WILL DISSIPATE AS THE LOW WEAKENS AS WELL...BUT
WILL STILL MAINTAIN A DIURNAL LOW END CHANCE POPS IN
NORTHEAST/COASTAL BEND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE ELSEWHERE. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH REGARD TO MOISTURE AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP. GFS DRIES
THINGS OUT MORE QUICKLY...WHILE THE ECMWF STAYS WETTER THROUGH
SUNDAY. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES FOR THE
TIME ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WITH PWAT VALUES FALLING BELOW 1.5 INCHES...AND ENDING RAIN
CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM...WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    88  75  92  73  90  /  40  20  30  20  30
VICTORIA          86  72  86  68  89  /  50  30  40  20  40
LAREDO            97  74  98  73  96  /  20  20  20  20  20
ALICE             91  73  93  71  92  /  50  20  30  20  30
ROCKPORT          83  75  87  74  87  /  50  20  30  20  30
COTULLA           93  72  93  71  93  /  20  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        91  74  93  73  92  /  50  20  30  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       84  76  87  75  87  /  40  20  30  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEE...GOLIAD...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

TE/81...AVIATION

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
546 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-281100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
546 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BEE...VICTORIA...AND GOLIAD
COUNTIES THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
TEXAS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE
POSSIBLE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG
GULF FACING BEACHES OF THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ALONG
WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1016 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

TXZ234-246-247-271615-
CALHOUN-REFUGIO-VICTORIA-
1016 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE AFFECTING CALHOUN...REFUGIO AND VICTORIA
COUNTIES...

AT 1012 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES EAST OF WOOD
HI TO GREEN LAKE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES EAST OF
VICTORIA TO 9 MILES EAST OF MCFADDIN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

TE