Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
637 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVED THROUGH THE NEARSHORE
WATERS DOWN THROUGH THE CORPUS CHRISTI AREA. CONVECTIVE TRENDS
HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AND ALONG WITH DIMINISHING
THE THREAT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...CONVECTION ON THE WANE THIS EVENING...AND ONLY HAVE
SHOWERS (KALI) AND THUNDER (KCRP) MENTIONED THROUGH 02Z WHICH MAY
BE TOO LONG ANYWAY. MAY MAKE A FINAL ADJUSTMENT BEFORE ISSUANCE.
FARTHER WEST...ANY CONVECTION COMING IN FROM MEXICAN
MOUNTAINS/EDWARDS PLATEAU WILL MAINLY BE (IF THEN) BETWEEN 08Z AND
08Z...AND HAVE A TEMPO FOR THUNDER THERE. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY
WINDS TONIGHT (UP FOR A SHORT TIME DUE TO MESO-SCALE EFFECTS)...
WILL GRADUALLY VEER OVERNIGHT. THEN NEXT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE TOWARD MORNING EASTERN TERMINALS WITH ARRIVAL OF UPPER
JET. FOR THAT...CONVECTION FORECAST BEFORE 12Z AT KVCT THEN
FARTHER SOUTH AT KCRP AND KALI AFTER SUNRISE. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE SOUTH OF AREA WITH JET...AND DO NOT HAVE ANYTHING
MENTIONED IN THE AFTERNOON AS CONFIDENCE IN AFTERNOON ACTIVITY IS
NOT THAT GREAT AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE... CONCERNING CIGS...AM
GOING TO FOLLOW SIMILAR CIGS TIMING AS WE HAVE SEEN DURING THE
LAST DAY OR TWO...WITH LOWER CIGS EXPECTED IN CONVECTION.
THUS...MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...THEN IMPROVE BY 18Z. SEE
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...SMALLER SCALE MODELS
TEND TO WEAKEN ON-GOING CONVECTION BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND DO NOT SHOW
MUCH DEVELOPING AFTER THAT...WHILE LARGER SCALE MODELS SHOWING
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS NEXT UPPER JET APPROACHES. THIS MOST OF
THIS CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN THIS EVENING...BUT MORE DEVELOPMENT
IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS RESPECTABLE UPPER JET APPROACHES. THUS...AM
GOING TO KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE SIDE OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MODELS STILL RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT IN REGARDS TO UPPER LEVEL LOW. GFS HASNT CHANGED MUCH AT
ALL. ECMWF HOLDS ONTO A WEAK LOW OVER EAST TEXAS A BIT LONGER THAN
IT HAD...EVEN TRYING TO RETROGRADE IT A BIT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.
BECAUSE OF THIS IT KEEPS MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA LONGER. FOR NOW
WILL LEAN A LITTLE MORE TOWARD GFS AND EARLIER ECMWF RUNS AND NOT
LINGER PRECIP PAST SUNDAY. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH UPPER JET
LINGERING OVERHEAD. BY THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND UPPER LEVEL WIND
PATTERN MUCH WEAKER WITH NO REAL JET DYNAMICS OVERHEAD. HAVE A 40
POP GOING FOR NORTHEAST ZONES ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL DROP TO 20-30
FOR REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DID EXTEND 20 POPS INTO SUNDAY AS HAD
BEEN ON THE FENCE WITH THIS THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS AND GFS STARTING
TO HINT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO GO ALONG WITH ECMWF.

TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT ON WEDNESDAY...THEN LEVEL OUT OR DECREASE
JUST A BIT LATE IN THE WEEK. BY SUNDAY COULD START TO WARM AGAIN
WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  88  75  93  73  /  40  20  20  30  20
VICTORIA          70  86  71  87  69  /  50  50  30  40  20
LAREDO            76  97  74  99  73  /  30  10  20  10  20
ALICE             73  91  73  94  71  /  40  20  20  30  20
ROCKPORT          77  83  75  88  75  /  40  30  20  20  20
COTULLA           71  93  71  94  72  /  40  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        75  91  74  94  73  /  30  20  20  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       76  84  76  88  75  /  30  20  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEE...GOLIAD...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

TMT/89...SHORT TERM