River Flood Warning 3, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
637 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVED THROUGH THE NEARSHORE
WATERS DOWN THROUGH THE CORPUS CHRISTI AREA. CONVECTIVE TRENDS
HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AND ALONG WITH DIMINISHING
THE THREAT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...CONVECTION ON THE WANE THIS EVENING...AND ONLY HAVE
SHOWERS (KALI) AND THUNDER (KCRP) MENTIONED THROUGH 02Z WHICH MAY
BE TOO LONG ANYWAY. MAY MAKE A FINAL ADJUSTMENT BEFORE ISSUANCE.
FARTHER WEST...ANY CONVECTION COMING IN FROM MEXICAN
MOUNTAINS/EDWARDS PLATEAU WILL MAINLY BE (IF THEN) BETWEEN 08Z AND
08Z...AND HAVE A TEMPO FOR THUNDER THERE. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY
WINDS TONIGHT (UP FOR A SHORT TIME DUE TO MESO-SCALE EFFECTS)...
WILL GRADUALLY VEER OVERNIGHT. THEN NEXT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE TOWARD MORNING EASTERN TERMINALS WITH ARRIVAL OF UPPER
JET. FOR THAT...CONVECTION FORECAST BEFORE 12Z AT KVCT THEN
FARTHER SOUTH AT KCRP AND KALI AFTER SUNRISE. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE SOUTH OF AREA WITH JET...AND DO NOT HAVE ANYTHING
MENTIONED IN THE AFTERNOON AS CONFIDENCE IN AFTERNOON ACTIVITY IS
NOT THAT GREAT AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE... CONCERNING CIGS...AM
GOING TO FOLLOW SIMILAR CIGS TIMING AS WE HAVE SEEN DURING THE
LAST DAY OR TWO...WITH LOWER CIGS EXPECTED IN CONVECTION.
THUS...MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...THEN IMPROVE BY 18Z. SEE
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...SMALLER SCALE MODELS
TEND TO WEAKEN ON-GOING CONVECTION BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND DO NOT SHOW
MUCH DEVELOPING AFTER THAT...WHILE LARGER SCALE MODELS SHOWING
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS NEXT UPPER JET APPROACHES. THIS MOST OF
THIS CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN THIS EVENING...BUT MORE DEVELOPMENT
IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS RESPECTABLE UPPER JET APPROACHES. THUS...AM
GOING TO KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE SIDE OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MODELS STILL RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT IN REGARDS TO UPPER LEVEL LOW. GFS HASNT CHANGED MUCH AT
ALL. ECMWF HOLDS ONTO A WEAK LOW OVER EAST TEXAS A BIT LONGER THAN
IT HAD...EVEN TRYING TO RETROGRADE IT A BIT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.
BECAUSE OF THIS IT KEEPS MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA LONGER. FOR NOW
WILL LEAN A LITTLE MORE TOWARD GFS AND EARLIER ECMWF RUNS AND NOT
LINGER PRECIP PAST SUNDAY. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH UPPER JET
LINGERING OVERHEAD. BY THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND UPPER LEVEL WIND
PATTERN MUCH WEAKER WITH NO REAL JET DYNAMICS OVERHEAD. HAVE A 40
POP GOING FOR NORTHEAST ZONES ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL DROP TO 20-30
FOR REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DID EXTEND 20 POPS INTO SUNDAY AS HAD
BEEN ON THE FENCE WITH THIS THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS AND GFS STARTING
TO HINT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO GO ALONG WITH ECMWF.

TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT ON WEDNESDAY...THEN LEVEL OUT OR DECREASE
JUST A BIT LATE IN THE WEEK. BY SUNDAY COULD START TO WARM AGAIN
WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  88  75  93  73  /  40  20  20  30  20
VICTORIA          70  86  71  87  69  /  50  50  30  40  20
LAREDO            76  97  74  99  73  /  30  10  20  10  20
ALICE             73  91  73  94  71  /  40  20  20  30  20
ROCKPORT          77  83  75  88  75  /  40  30  20  20  20
COTULLA           71  93  71  94  72  /  40  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        75  91  74  94  73  /  30  20  20  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       76  84  76  88  75  /  30  20  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEE...GOLIAD...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

TMT/89...SHORT TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
306 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-271100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
306 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COUNTIES OF
BEE...VICTORIA AND GOLIAD COUNTIES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS...GENERALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF LAS
TIENDAS...TO SAN DIEGO...TO ODEM...TO PORT ARANSAS LINE. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL AND A
POSSIBLE TORNADO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE MAIN CONCERN
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COUNTIES OF
BEE...VICTORIA AND GOLIAD COUNTIES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ESSENTIALLY
ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE QUARTER TO
GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL ALONG WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. A
TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS ON TUESDAY MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ON TUESDAY ALONG
GULF FACING BEACHES OF THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

AT THIS TIME...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...
SPOTTERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

GW/TB/LK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
346 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

TXZ232-233-246-262130-
BEE-GOLIAD-REFUGIO-
346 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING BEE...GOLIAD AND REFUGIO
COUNTIES...

AT 344 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF BLANCONIA...OR 14 MILES EAST
OF BEEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

CB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
404 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

TXZ231-232-241-244-246-262145-
BEE-JIM WELLS-LIVE OAK-REFUGIO-SAN PATRICIO-
404 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING BEE...LIVE
OAK...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN JIM WELLS
COUNTIES...

AT 401 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TYNAN...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
SKIDMORE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM WITH 1 TO 2
INCHES.

CB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
441 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     TORNADO          2 NW TYNAN              28.17N 97.76W
05/26/2014                   BEE                TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORT OF DAMAGE TO A GIN NEAR INTERSECTION OF 359 AND
            796. ALSO VISUAL REPORT OF TORNADO LOOKING FROM 188 AND
            630.

&&

HART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
459 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TORNADO          6 W SINTON              28.05N 97.60W
05/26/2014                   SAN PATRICIO       TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTED AT INTERSECTION OF HWY 188 AND 630.

&&

HART

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
514 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

TXZ232-244-246-262300-
BEE-REFUGIO-SAN PATRICIO-
514 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING BEE...REFUGIO AND SAN PATRICIO
COUNTIES...

AT 511 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SINTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM...IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN.

CB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
516 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0401 PM     TORNADO          2 NW TYNAN              28.17N 97.76W
05/26/2014                   BEE                TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORT OF DAMAGE TO A GIN NEAR INTERSECTION OF 359 AND
            796. TIME IS ESTIMATE FROM RADAR.

&&

HART