Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
801 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW OVER KANSAS WILL MOVE THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY TUESDAY AND
CONTINUE NORTH INTO HUDSON BAY PULLING A COLD FRONT INTO EASTERN
OHIO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTH ALONG THE FRONT INTO EASTERN CANADA LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR SCT EVE TSRA. DURING
THE NIGHT A PUNCH OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND SHOULD SHIFT THE THREAT OF CONVECTION INTO MAINLY LERI AND THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO LOCALLY
SEVERE...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE THE SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE
BETTER. TEMPS WILL REMAIN SEASONALLY WARM WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA SHOULD CAUSE SCT TSRA TO SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUE WITH THE BEST CHANCE TUE NIGHT AS THE
FRONT CROSSES MOST OF THE CWA. ONCE AGAIN...DUE TO INSTABILITY AND
SOME WIND SHEAR SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG AND POSSIBLY EVEN
LOCALLY SEVERE.

SOME AREAS COULD SEE REPEATED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SO EVENTUALLY SOME
FLOODING MAY OCCUR BUT THE SITUATION IS TOO DIFFUSE TO TRY AND NAIL
DOWN WHERE THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL OCCUR. PW'S WILL BE AVERAGING
AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF FOR MOST OF THE AREA TUE AND TUE NIGHT SO
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAVY RAINS WILL BE THERE.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR WESTERN PA FOR
WED AS THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO CUT OFF WELL WEST OF THE AREA. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH UP THRU THE CWA WED NIGHT
INTO FRI SO WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD SHRA...EMBEDDED WITH TSRA. THE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHRA WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO ELEVATE THE FLOOD THREAT SO THE SITUATION WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND MOST LIKELY A FLOOD WATCH WILL NEED TO BE
ISSUED AND EVENTUALLY PROBABLY SOME WARNINGS TOO.

TEMPS WILL COOL WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AIDED DURING THE DAY
BY THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME SHOWERS WILL BE LINGERING ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY BUT THEY WILL BE MOVING OUT AS THE DAYS
GOES ON. AN UPPER TROF WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING MAINLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. MORE TIMING MAY BE ABLE TO BE PUT IN
THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. SLOWLY DECREASED THE
POPS AS THE TROF MOVES EAST. MAINLY USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND TSTSMS THROUGH THE EVENING AND MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY THAT THE WINDS AND WAVES COULD GET CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE AS A LOW
MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. THIS LOW MAY ALSO CAUSE THE WINDS TO INCREASE
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE ENTIRE LAKE. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
THROUGH THURSDAY THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ON THE LAKE AT ANY TIME AND
PROMPT SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT WINDS ON
THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/JAMISON
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA/TK
MARINE...KIELTYKA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
912 AM EDT MON MAY 12 2014

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-131315-
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-
ASHTABULA INLAND-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-
WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-
HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
CRAWFORD PA-
912 AM EDT MON MAY 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
COULD BE SEVERE. THE GREATEST THREAT WOULD BE FROM LARGE HAIL OR
DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-131315-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
912 AM EDT MON MAY 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
523 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     HAIL             VERMILION               41.41N 82.32W
05/12/2014  E0.75 INCH       LORAIN             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KING