Special Weather Statement, NWS La Crosse, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
934 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

STARTING TO WONDER IF FLASH FLOODING MAY BE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER RISK
TONIGHT WITH OTHER SEVERE RISKS LOOKING LESS LIKELY COMPARED TO
EARLIER. STILL HAVE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT
MESOSCALE MODELS AND 17.00Z NAM SUGGEST BETTER CONVERGENCE MIGHT
REMAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST / WEST. ISENTROPIC LIFT FIGHTING CAP AND
OUTSIDE OF ELEVATED STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...BEEN
PRETTY QUIET SO FAR. ALSO SEEING SOME STORMS FIRE CLOSER TO BOUNDARY
NEAR ILLINOIS BORDER BUT THOSE TOO ARE NOT GROWING VERY RAPIDLY.

WILL LIKELY START TO CHANGE PRODUCE SUITE TO CONCENTRATE ON HEAVY
RAIN RISK OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWER EMPHASIS ON OTHER SEVERE WEATHER
ELEMENTS. PLAN ON HOLDING ON TO FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH PRIMED SETUP
AND CONCERN FROM HEAVY RAIN GROUP AT NESDIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FORECAST SETUP FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TIMING WHEN THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS PLACES A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM SIOUX FALLS EAST
THROUGH NORTHERN IOWA THEN DIVING SOUTHWARD TO ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. A STRONG CAP CENTERED AROUND 725 MB
AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER UPPER RIDGING IS KEEPING THE CONVECTION FROM
FIRING THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS WILL CHANGE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND THE LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSES INTO THE WARM FRONT. IF
STORMS GET ROLLING EARLIER THAN THIS EVENING ALONG THE WARM FRONT
THEY WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO NEAR THE WARM FRONT BUT
0-1 KM SHEAR LOOKS RATHER WEAK. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH 0-1 KM MUCAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO 3500 J/KG AND THIS
INSTABILITY IS FEEDING NORTHWARD INTO THE FRONT. STORMS SHOULD
REALLY GET GOING IN THE 900 PM TO 1000 PM TIMEFRAME AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. THE CONVECTION MAY ACTUALLY FIRE RIGHT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AND ORGANIZE INTO BOWING STRUCTURE WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. GIVEN THE STRONG 0-1 KM
SHEAR BY THAT TIME CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES
TONIGHT SO ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.
GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST
IOWA...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN...CHOSE TO
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS FROM 7PM TONIGHT THOUGH
7 AM WEDNESDAY.

SHOWER AND STORMS SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THE STORMS BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON WHERE
BOUNDARIES SET UP FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO TURN SOUTHWEST AND A
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE AND WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACHING 4.0 KM. THERE WILL FINALLY BE A BREAK IN
THE HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
SLIPS SOUTH. ANOTHER TROUGH DROPS SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LEANED TOWARD A MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND FROM LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WITH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

MAIN FOCUS HAS BEEN TIMING OF EXPECTED CONVECTION AGAIN TONIGHT
GIVEN DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL JET TO THE SOUTHWEST. UNSTABLE AIR...ESPECIALLY JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA...SHOULD FUEL DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
LATER THIS EVENING. TIMING OF THAT A BIT DIFFICULT BUT WOULD EXPECT
A FEW HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS AS LINE OF STORMS PASSES THROUGH.
DEPENDING ON WHERE BOUNDARY ENDS UP...COULD HAVE ANOTHER LULL
BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY SO BESIDES A RETURN OF CAPPED
MID LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5
TO 2.0 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACHING 4.0 KM. REPEATED
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THIS
WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED TO ISSUE A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR FLOODING/
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. ALSO...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN FROM 7PM TONIGHT THROUGH 7AM WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE NEED THROUGH THE WEEK AS DETAILS ON ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF TSRA/LOCATION OF GREATER RISK OF MORE HEAVY RAINS BECOME
CLEARER.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR WIZ032-033-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...SHEA
HYDROLOGY...WETENKAMP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
645 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-181100-
MITCHELL-HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FLOYD-CHICKASAW-FAYETTE-
CLAYTON-WABASHA-DODGE-OLMSTED-WINONA-MOWER-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-
BUFFALO-TREMPEALEAU-JACKSON-LA CROSSE-MONROE-JUNEAU-ADAMS-VERNON-
CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT-
645 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE A FEW STORMS MAY FORM OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE MAIN THREAT AREA IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 BETWEEN 10 PM AND ROUGHLY 3 AM WEDNESDAY.

INITIALLY THE MAIN THREATS LOOK TO BE LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...THE THREATS
SHOULD TRANSITION TO FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAIN...AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS ANOTHER RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAINS.

FLASH FLOODING FROM REPEATED ROUNDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THROUGH FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCERN IF THERE WOULD BE A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT OUTSIDE OF THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL REPORTS ARE APPRECIATED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED AT THIS TIME.

WIZ017-029-181100-
TAYLOR-CLARK-
114 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT TIME IS BETWEEN 11 PM AND
4 AM.

INITIALLY THE MAIN THREATS LOOK TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THE THREATS SHOULD TRANSITION
TO FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS ANOTHER RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAINS.

FLASH FLOODING FROM REPEATED ROUNDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THROUGH FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCERN IF THERE WOULD BE A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT OUTSIDE OF THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 10PM.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

04/SHEA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
939 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

WIZ017-180315-
TAYLOR-
939 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN TAYLOR COUNTY...

AT 935 PM...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LIKELY PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN AND HAIL NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64 IN TAYLOR COUNTY THIS EVENING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... RIB LAKE...CHELSEA...WESTBORO...AND
CAMP FOREST SPRING.

LAT...LON 4535 9005 4521 9046 4522 9048 4537 9060
      4538 9059 4538 9004
TIME...MOT...LOC 0237Z 242DEG 22KT 4531 9048

SHEA