Areal Flood Warning 5, NWS La Crosse, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
710 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...SHRA/TSRA/SEVERE CHANCES AND
HEAVY RAIN THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD LOW PRESSURE IN FAR NORTHEAST CO WITH A
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHEAST ACROSS NEB THEN ACROSS NORTHERN IA.
THIS BOUNDARY AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE
OF A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO/OVER IT REMAIN THE MAIN
FORCING MECHANISMS FOR SHRA/TSRA ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS
MORNING. AFTER A LULL/SLOW START THRU MUCH OF THE EVENING...
CONVECTION GENERALLY INCREASING FROM SOUTHEAST SD TO MUCH OF WI
EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST CELLS SLOWER MOVING THIS MORNING...CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

NO BIG PROBLEMS NOTED WITH 18.00Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. SOLUTIONS
RATHER SIMILAR IN THE LARGER SCALE FOR TODAY/TONIGHT AS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES LOW/TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TREND FAVORS
FASTER OF THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THE PORTION OF THE TROUGH MOVING
INTO NEB/SD/ND BY 12Z THU. BETTER CONSENSUS OF THE SFC LOW/TROUGH/
FRONT TO NEAR THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER AT 12Z THU. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF
MESO-SCALE/LOWER-LEVEL DETAIL DIFFERENCES...WHICH IMPACT CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION THE NEXT 24-36 HRS. GIVEN THESE DETAIL DIFFERENCES WITH
IMPACTS ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE AT BEST THIS CYCLE.

SHORT-TERM FCST PROBLEMATIC THIS CYCLE WITH NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CAN-GEM
STRUGGLING ON CONVECTION TIMING/PLACEMENT EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST
HRRR AND RAP13 HIGH-RES/WRF RUNS DOING BETTER CAPTURING SHRA/TSRA
TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING. SHRA/TSRA MOTION GRADUALLY BECOMING
EASTERLY AS CONVECTION/COMPLEX MATURES AND TAKES ON THE CORFIDI
VECTOR MOTION...AND HEADING INTO THE FCST AREA. MAINTENANCE AS IT
COMES EAST THRU THE MID MORNING HOURS IS THE BIGGER QUESTION. THE
STRONGER OF THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE
PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER NORTHWEST IA...AND WEAKENS THRU 12Z AND 18Z
TODAY. HOWEVER MODELS INDICATE CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF 925-850MB
LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER NORTHERN IA/SOUTHERN MN THRU AT LEAST
12Z. WILL FOLLOW TRENDS OF HRRR/RUC13 AND CARRY LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS MORNING...TRENDING DOWNWARD THRU THE
MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE/INFLOW GRADUALLY WEAKEN...
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THIS. LOWER LEVEL FORCING/LIFT
INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT PROGGED TO BE JUST SOUTHWEST
OF THE FCST AREA AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKING TO APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. CONTINUED THE 60-70 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TONIGHT.

WITH PW VALUES OF AROUND 1.75 INCHES OR HIGHER IN THE INFLOW AIR...
WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF AROUND 4KM AND THE SLOWER STORM MOTION...TSRA
WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAIN RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HR. FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WAS DUE TO EXPIRE AT 7 AM THIS MORNING. WILL EXTEND THIS
TO 7 AM THU. GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE AREA AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR FOCUSING LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/LIFT OF THIS AIRMASS IN THE AREA...THE THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINS/FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES TONIGHT. EXPECTATIONS ARE THERE WILL
BE A LULL IN THE SHRA/TSRA IN THE FCST AREA AROUND MID-DAY TODAY...
BUT SEEMS EASIER TO JUST RUN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THRU 12Z THU.
EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS MAY OCCUR REMAINS IN QUESTION BUT 3
HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA ARE
AROUND 2 INCHES OR LESS. SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSRA CONTINUES
TODAY/TONIGHT...SEE SWODY1 FOR DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THU THRU FRI NIGHT...CONTINUED
HIGHER SHRA/TSRA CHANCES...SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN THREATS THU/THU NIGHT.

18.00Z MODELS OFFER SLOWLY IMPROVING AGREEMENT THU THRU FRI NIGHT AS
THE US/CAN BORDER MID LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND PUSHES 2 LOWER
LEVEL/SFC TROUGH/FRONTS INTO THE FCST AREA. FIRST OF THESE TO
ADVANCE IN THU NIGHT AND THE SECOND TO PUSH TOWARD THE AREA FRI
NIGHT. PLENTY OF MESO-SCALE/LOWER LEVEL DETAIL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
IN THE THU-FRI NIGHT PERIOD...MAKING FCST CONFIDENCE THIS PERIOD
ALSO AVERAGE AT BEST.

FIRST LOWER LEVEL TROUGH FRONT TO HAVE 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF PW AHEAD
OF IT THU. WITH FALLING HGTS ALOFT AND WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING THRU
THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL LOW....LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT TO AID
CONVECTION THU. STRONGER OF THE LOWER LEVEL FORCING/LIFT SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA THU...SLOWLY TRANSLATING EAST OF THE AREA THU NIGHT.
CONTINUED THE 60-75 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THU...TRENDING
DOWNWARD AND EASTWARD THU NIGHT. POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR MORE
DOWNPOURS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS THU/THU NIGHT...AND IN TIME WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THRU THU/THU NIGHT. WITH
SOME INCREASE OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR THU/THU EVENING...A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THU. SEE SWODY2 FOR
DETAILS. THIS THU/THU EVENING RISK MAY BE MUTED IF CONVECTION IS
ONGOING OR DEVELOPS ALREADY THU MORNING.

BY THE TIME THE SECOND LOWER LEVEL TROUGH/FRONT ARRIVES MORE
WESTERLY 850-700MB FLOW BEHIND THE FIRST TROUGH/FRONT WILL HAVE
PUSHED SOME OF THE DEEPER/HIGHER PW AIRMASS EAST OF THE AREA. WITH
THE AREA BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS FRI...LESSER SHRA/TSRA CHANCES OR
TRENDING TOWARD DRY SEEMS REASONABLE. SOME INCREASE OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING FRI NIGHT AS THE SFC-850MB
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA. 20-40 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BY
LATER FRI NIGHT ALSO REASONABLE. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS
LOWS FOR THU THRU FRI NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.../DAYS 4-7/...

ONCE AGAIN...DID NOT SPEND A LOT OF TIME LOOKING AT THE DETAILS IN
THE DAY 4-7 PORTION OF THE FCST.

18.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WEAKEN AND TRACK THE US/CAN BORDER LOW
FURTHER NORTH/EAST SAT...WITH BROAD WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
BREAKS DOWN SUNDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER CENTRAL NOAM AND
ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH DROPS DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THIS RIDGE
TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF TIMING/DETAIL DIFFERENCES
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGHING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
MON/TUE. NEEDLESS TO DAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE SAT-TUE PORTION OF THE
FCST IS BELOW AVERAGE.

MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN SUGGESTS A SERIES OF LOWER LEVEL TROUGHS AND
ROUNDS OF INCREASED MOISTURE/FORCING/LIFT TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SAT THRU TUE. THIS PERIOD LOOKS DRIER THAN THIS WEEK...BUT MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HAS PERSISTENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. BY
SUNDAY...WITH MORE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGHING BRINGING COOLER MID LEVEL AIR TO THE REGION...TEMPS FOR
SUN-TUE DO LOOK TO COOL TO MORE NEAR NORMAL VALUES...WITH LOWER DEW
POINTS/HUMIDITY VALUES. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT
THRU TUE APPEAR TO HAVE THIS WELL TRENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 710 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

PERIODS OF TS/SHRA WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. TRYING TO
PINPOINT THE HIGHEST THREAT TIME...AND THE ACCOMPANYING IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE PROBLEMATIC. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ADVANCED EAST OF THE
KRST/KLSE...AND NOT ANTICIPATING MORE STORMS /OTHER THAN A STRAY ONE
THROUGH 9 AM/ THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD LEAD TO RE-
IGNITION OF SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND THE WEST-EAST RUNNING FRONT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND MORE NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT. GOING TO
ADD A TEMPO GROUP TOWARD THIS TIME TO INDICATE THE LIKELY-HOOD OF
STORMS DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE
EXACT TIMING...NOR THAT THIS WOULD BE THE ONLY PERIOD WITH IFR/MVFR
STORMS. ANTICIPATE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH AROUND ANY STORM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THU NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACHING 4.0 KM. TSRA WILL CONTINUE
TO BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. REPEATED ROUNDS OF THESE TSRA WILL
PRODUCE A HEIGHTENED FLASH FLOOD THREAT THRU THU NIGHT. HAVE
EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THRU 7 AM
THURSDAY...AND THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THRU THU/THU
NIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR WIZ032-033-
     041>044-053>055-061.

MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MNZ079-086>088-
     094>096.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-018-
     019-029-030.

&&

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....RIECK
HYDROLOGY....RRS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
923 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-191000-
MITCHELL-HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FLOYD-CHICKASAW-FAYETTE-
CLAYTON-WABASHA-DODGE-OLMSTED-WINONA-MOWER-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-
TAYLOR-CLARK-BUFFALO-TREMPEALEAU-JACKSON-LA CROSSE-MONROE-JUNEAU-
ADAMS-VERNON-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT-
923 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

HEAVY RAIN FROM OVERNIGHT...AND THE PAST FEW DAYS...CONTINUES TO
CAUSE FLOODING IN SOME AREAS. MANY AREA RIVERS ARE ON THE RISE OR
FLOODING AS WELL. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 94.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN WITH THIS ROUND OF STORMS BUT IT APPEARS TO
BE DURING THE MID EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING RAINS WOULD BE THE MAIN
THREATS. IF STORMS OCCUR EARLIER IN THE EVENING...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS ANOTHER RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND FLASH FLOODING.

CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO DISCERN IF THERE WOULD BE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH
ANY OF THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS COULD BE NEEDED AT TIMES OVERNIGHT IF THE THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND MATERIALIZES. RAINFALL REPORTS AND OBSERVATIONS OF
FLOODING ARE APPRECIATED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED AT THIS TIME.

RRS/SHEA

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
905 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SSE ADAMS             43.89N 89.79W
06/18/2014                   ADAMS              WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN SCATTERED ABOUT ADAMS COUNTY BUT MOST
            CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTY.
            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

AJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
913 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 AM     HAIL             3 ESE ELLENBORO         42.77N 90.56W
06/18/2014  E0.88 INCH       GRANT              WI   PUBLIC

            JUST UNDER QUARTER SIZED HAIL. WIND
            UNREMARKABLE. 7207 SNOWY LANE.

&&

NWS LA CROSSE WI
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
915 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 AM     HAIL             3 ESE ELLENBORO         42.76N 90.58W
06/18/2014  E0.25 INCH       GRANT              WI   PUBLIC

&&

NWS LA CROSSE WI
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
916 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0706 AM     HAIL             4 ESE ELLENBORO         42.76N 90.54W
06/18/2014  E0.25 INCH       GRANT              WI   PUBLIC

            WIND UNREMARKABLE.

&&

NWS LA CROSSE WI
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
933 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CATARACT                44.09N 90.83W
06/18/2014                   MONROE             WI   OTHER FEDERAL

            POST OFFICE REPORTED CUSTOMERS COMING IN SAYING PEOPLE
            HAD TO TURN AROUND ON BACK ROADS AROUND CATARACT THIS
            MORNING. ROADS SUCH AS COUNTY B AND Q AS WELL AS HIGHWAY
            162 HAD FLOODING. TIME OF FLOODING ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

AJ