Alert archive / Minnesota / River Flood Warnings in 2014
River Flood Warning 38, NWS La Crosse, WI
NWS La Crosse, WI issued this river flood warning at Jun 18, 2014, 7:41 AM CDT for Mower County, Minnesota. It took effect at Jun 18, 2014, 10:30 AM CDT. It was in force for 65 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 18, 2014, 7:41 AM CDT (12:41 UTC)
- In effect from
- Jun 18, 2014, 10:30 AM CDT
- Expired
- Jun 21, 2014, 3:09 AM CDT
- In force
- 65 hr
- Issued by
- NWS La Crosse, WI
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- Minor
County Mower County, MN
The radar
The La Crosse radar (KARX), 137 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The river
Written for the forecast point Dobbins Creek near Austin (DOBM5).
- Action stage
- 9 ft
- Minor stage
- 11.5 ft
- Moderate stage
- 14 ft
- Major stage
- 18 ft
This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests
Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 05455970, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
302 WGUS43 KARX 181241 FLWARX BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 741 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014 ...FLOOD WARNING FOR DOBBINS CREEK NEAR AUSTIN... .HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE HIGH WATER ALONG DOBBINS CREEK. MINOR FLOODING IS AGAIN EXPECTED. RIVER FORECASTS TAKE INTO ACCOUNT BOTH OBSERVED AND FORECAST PRECIPITATION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IF YOU LIVE IN A THREATENED AREA...BE ALERT FOR HIGH OR RISING WATER...AND BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF NECESSARY. DO NOT DRIVE CARS INTO FLOODED AREAS. REMEMBER...IT TAKES ONLY TWO FEET OF WATER TO FLOAT MOST AUTOMOBILES...INCLUDING SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES. TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN. STAY TUNED TO YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION...INCLUDING NOAA WEATHER RADIO...FOR LATER STATEMENTS. ADDITIONAL RIVER AND WEATHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE . && MNC099-190041- /O.NEW.KARX.FL.W.0038.140618T1530Z-140621T0809Z/ /DOBM5.1.ER.140618T1530Z.140620T0400Z.140620T1409Z.NO/ 741 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LA CROSSE WI HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WARNING FOR THE DOBBINS CREEK AT AUSTIN 2NE. * UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. * AT 6:30 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.0 FEET. * FLOOD STAGE IS 11.5 FEET. * MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 12.5 FEET BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY MORNING. && LAT...LON 4366 9297 4368 9296 4373 9287 4374 9277 4369 9279 $$
6 follow-up statements
401 WGUS83 KARX 181605 FLSARX FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 1105 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014 .HEAVY RAINFALL IN RECENT DAYS...AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL FORECAST PRECIPITATION...WILL BRING DOBBINS CREEK TO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY. RIVER FORECASTS TAKE INTO ACCOUNT BOTH OBSERVED AND FORECAST PRECIPITATION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... DO NOT DRIVE CARS INTO FLOODED AREAS. REMEMBER...IT TAKES ONLY TWO FEET OF WATER TO FLOAT MOST AUTOMOBILES...INCLUDING SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES. TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN. ADDITIONAL RIVER AND WEATHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE . && MNC099-190705- /O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-140620T2100Z/ /DOBM5.1.ER.140619T1219Z.140619T1800Z.140620T0300Z.NO/ 1105 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE DOBBINS CREEK AT AUSTIN 2NE. * UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. * AT 9:30 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.1 FEET. * FLOOD STAGE IS 11.5 FEET. * MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 11.7 FEET BY THURSDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY EVENING. && LAT...LON 4366 9297 4368 9296 4373 9287 4374 9277 4369 9279 $$
426 WGUS83 KARX 190201 FLSARX FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 901 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014 RIVER FORECASTS TAKE INTO ACCOUNT BOTH OBSERVED AND FORECAST PRECIPITATION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... DO NOT DRIVE CARS INTO FLOODED AREAS. REMEMBER...IT TAKES ONLY TWO FEET OF WATER TO FLOAT MOST AUTOMOBILES...INCLUDING SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES. TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN. ADDITIONAL RIVER AND WEATHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE . && MNC099-191701- /O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-140621T0000Z/ /LANM5.1.ER.140617T2345Z.140619T1200Z.140620T0600Z.NO/ 901 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE CEDAR RIVER AT LANSING. * UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. * AT 8:30 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.9 FEET. * FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET. * MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 19.0 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY MORNING. * IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING BEGINS. && LAT...LON 4385 9298 4378 9293 4372 9295 4372 9297 4385 9304 $$ MNC099-191701- /O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-140621T1440Z/ /ASTM5.2.ER.140618T1912Z.140620T0000Z.140620T2040Z.NO/ 901 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE CEDAR RIVER AT AUSTIN. * UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. * AT 3:00 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.2 FEET. * FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. * MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 18.1 FEET BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY. * IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...NUMEROUS HOMES AND BUSINESSES MAY BE THREATENED BY HIGH WATER. && LAT...LON 4372 9295 4361 9297 4361 9299 4368 9299 4372 9297 $$ IAC067-191701- /O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0035.000000T0000Z-140622T1320Z/ /CCYI4.2.ER.140619T0118Z.140620T1800Z.140621T1920Z.NO/ 901 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE CEDAR RIVER AT CHARLES CITY. * UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. * AT 8:30 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.0 FEET. * FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET. * MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 15.3 FEET BY FRIDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY. * IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...LELAND AVENUE FLOODS AND FLOODING ON PARK DRIVE IS LIKELY. && LAT...LON 4321 9286 4321 9273 4301 9255 4293 9255 4304 9273 $$ MNC099-191701- /O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-140620T2340Z/ /DOBM5.1.ER.140619T1218Z.140620T0400Z.140620T0540Z.NO/ 901 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE DOBBINS CREEK AT AUSTIN 2NE. * UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. * AT 7:30 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.1 FEET. * FLOOD STAGE IS 11.5 FEET. * MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 12.5 FEET BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY MORNING. && LAT...LON 4366 9297 4368 9296 4373 9287 4374 9277 4369 9279 $$ MNC099-191701- /O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-140622T0224Z/ /TRCM5.2.ER.140617T1848Z.140620T0000Z.140621T0824Z.NO/ 901 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE TURTLE CREEK NEAR AUSTIN 3NW. * UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. * AT 8:30 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.7 FEET. * FLOOD STAGE IS 10.5 FEET. * MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 12.4 FEET BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING. * IMPACT...AT 10.5 FEET...MINOR FLOODING BEGINS ALONG THE CREEK IN AUSTIN. && LAT...LON 4370 9305 4368 9300 4365 9297 4364 9298 4367 9305 $$
625 WGUS83 KARX 191016 FLSARX FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 516 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014 ...SEVERAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT... .ALL OF THE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA IN RECENT DAYS IS RESULTING IN FLOODING FOR SOME CREEKS AND RIVERS. THE LATEST STAGES AND FORECASTS ARE PROVIDED BELOW. RIVER FORECASTS TAKE INTO ACCOUNT BOTH OBSERVED AND FORECAST PRECIPITATION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... DO NOT DRIVE CARS INTO FLOODED AREAS. REMEMBER...IT TAKES ONLY TWO FEET OF WATER TO FLOAT MOST AUTOMOBILES...INCLUDING SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES. TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN. ADDITIONAL RIVER AND WEATHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE . && MNC157-WIC011-200116- /O.CON.KARX.FL.W.0036.140620T1800Z-000000T0000Z/ /WABM5.1.ER.140620T1800Z.140623T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/ 516 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WABASHA. * FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. * AT 4:00 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.6 FEET. * FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET. * MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 12.5 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING. * IMPACT...AT 12.5 FEET...FLOODING OCCURS ON THE SOCCER FIELD ON HIAWATHA DRIVE. && LAT...LON 4445 9207 4442 9200 4435 9192 4433 9200 4439 9209 $$ IAC005-043-WIC023-043-200116- /O.CON.KARX.FL.W.0043.140622T1800Z-000000T0000Z/ /MCGI4.1.ER.140622T1800Z.140624T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/ 516 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT MCGREGOR. * FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. * AT 4:45 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.8 FEET. * FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET. * MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 16.9 FEET BY TUESDAY. * IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING BEGINS AND ACCESS TO PARKS NEAR THE RIVER IN PRAIRIE DU CHIEN ARE AFFECTED. && LAT...LON 4321 9109 4300 9111 4298 9119 4316 9121 4324 9115 $$ WIC053-200116- /O.CON.KARX.FL.W.0039.000000T0000Z-140620T1017Z/ /BRFW3.1.ER.140619T1026Z.140619T1200Z.140619T1617Z.NO/ 516 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE BLACK RIVER AT BLACK RIVER FALLS. * UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. * AT 3:15 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 46.3 FEET. * FLOOD STAGE IS 47.0 FEET. * MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 47.5 FEET BY THIS MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THIS MORNING. * IMPACT...AT 47.0 FEET...SOME RURAL ROADS MAY BEGIN TO FLOOD INCLUDING COUNTY HIGHWAY VV DOWNSTREAM NEAR THE LA CROSSE COUNTY LINE. && LAT...LON 4437 9080 4413 9100 4411 9097 4417 9088 4435 9075 $$ WIC063-121-200116- /O.CON.KARX.FL.W.0042.140621T1200Z-140622T1200Z/ /GALW3.1.ER.140621T1200Z.140621T1200Z.140621T1800Z.NO/ 516 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE BLACK RIVER NEAR GALESVILLE. * FROM SATURDAY MORNING TO SUNDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. * AT 4:45 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.5 FEET. * FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET. * FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING. * IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...FLOODING MAINLY IMPACTS WILDLANDS AND AGRICULTURAL PASTURE LAND. HOWEVER THE APPROACH TO THE SOUTH END OF THE COUNTY ROAD VV BRIDGE OVER THE BLACK RIVER MAY BE FLOODED. && LAT...LON 4413 9100 4407 9133 4395 9138 4393 9135 4411 9097 $$ MNC099-200116- /O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-140621T0600Z/ /LANM5.1.ER.140617T2345Z.140620T0000Z.140620T1200Z.NO/ 516 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE CEDAR RIVER AT LANSING. * UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. * AT 4:30 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.6 FEET. * FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET. * MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 18.5 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY MORNING. * IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING BEGINS. && LAT...LON 4385 9298 4378 9293 4372 9295 4372 9297 4385 9304 $$ MNC099-200116- /O.CON.KARX.FL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-140621T1440Z/ /ASTM5.1.ER.140618T1912Z.140620T0600Z.140620T2040Z.NO/ 516 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE CEDAR RIVER AT AUSTIN. * UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. * AT 4:30 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.9 FEET. * FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. * MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 16.4 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY. * IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...THE CITY OF AUSTIN TAKES SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO WARN PEOPLE AND BUSINESSES. && LAT...LON 4372 9295 4361 9297 4361 9299 4368 9299 4372 9297 $$ IAC067-200116- /O.CON.KARX.FL.W.0035.000000T0000Z-140622T1320Z/ /CCYI4.2.ER.140619T0118Z.140620T1800Z.140621T1920Z.NO/ 516 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE CEDAR RIVER AT CHARLES CITY. * UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. * AT 4:30 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.4 FEET. * FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET. * MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 15.3 FEET BY FRIDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY. * IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...LELAND AVENUE FLOODS AND FLOODING ON PARK DRIVE IS LIKELY. && LAT...LON 4321 9286 4321 9273 4301 9255 4293 9255 4304 9273 $$ MNC099-200116- /O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-140621T1236Z/ /DOBM5.2.ER.140619T1648Z.140620T0400Z.140620T1836Z.NO/ 516 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE DOBBINS CREEK AT AUSTIN 2NE. * UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. * AT 4:30 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.3 FEET. * FLOOD STAGE IS 11.5 FEET. * MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 14.2 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY. && LAT...LON 4366 9297 4368 9296 4373 9287 4374 9277 4369 9279 $$ MNC099-200116- /O.CON.KARX.FL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-140622T0224Z/ /TRCM5.2.ER.140617T1848Z.140620T0000Z.140621T0824Z.NO/ 516 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE TURTLE CREEK NEAR AUSTIN 3NW. * UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. * AT 4:30 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.4 FEET. * FLOOD STAGE IS 10.5 FEET. * MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 12.4 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING. * IMPACT...AT 10.5 FEET...MINOR FLOODING BEGINS ALONG THE CREEK IN AUSTIN. && LAT...LON 4370 9305 4368 9300 4365 9297 4364 9298 4367 9305 $$ WIC011-121-200115- /O.CON.KARX.FL.W.0040.140620T0000Z-140623T0300Z/ /DDGW3.1.ER.140620T0000Z.140621T0600Z.140622T0900Z.NO/ 516 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE TREMPEALEAU RIVER AT DODGE. * FROM THIS EVENING TO SUNDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. * AT 4:45 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.0 FEET. * FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET. * MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 10.1 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY MORNING. * IMPACT...AT 9.5 FEET...THE ENTRANCE ROAD TO THE TREMPEALEAU NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE IS FLOODED. && LAT...LON 4404 9158 4420 9163 4423 9158 4422 9158 4402 9149 $$
433 WGUS83 KARX 191747 FLSARX FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 1247 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014 .FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CEDAR RIVER AT LANSING...AUSTIN AND CHARLES CITY...AND FOR DOBBINS CREEK NEAR AUSTIN...AND TURTLE CREEK NEAR AUSTIN. RIVER FORECASTS TAKE INTO ACCOUNT BOTH OBSERVED AND FORECAST PRECIPITATION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... DO NOT DRIVE CARS INTO FLOODED AREAS. REMEMBER...IT TAKES ONLY TWO FEET OF WATER TO FLOAT MOST AUTOMOBILES...INCLUDING SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES. TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN. ADDITIONAL RIVER AND WEATHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE . && MNC099-200847- /O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-140621T1800Z/ /LANM5.1.ER.140617T2345Z.140618T1545Z.140621T0000Z.NO/ 1247 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE CEDAR RIVER AT LANSING. * UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. * AT 12:30 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.2 FEET. * FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET. * FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY EVENING. * IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING BEGINS. && LAT...LON 4385 9298 4378 9293 4372 9295 4372 9297 4385 9304 $$ MNC099-200847- /O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-140621T1800Z/ /ASTM5.1.ER.140618T1912Z.140621T0000Z.140621T0000Z.NO/ 1247 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE CEDAR RIVER AT AUSTIN. * UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. * AT 11:00 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.2 FEET. * FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. * FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY EVENING. * IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...THE CITY OF AUSTIN TAKES SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO WARN PEOPLE AND BUSINESSES. && LAT...LON 4372 9295 4361 9297 4361 9299 4368 9299 4372 9297 $$ IAC067-200847- /O.CON.KARX.FL.W.0035.000000T0000Z-140623T0454Z/ /CCYI4.2.ER.140619T0118Z.140621T0600Z.140622T1054Z.NO/ 1247 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE CEDAR RIVER AT CHARLES CITY. * UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. * AT 12:30 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.0 FEET. * FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET. * MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 16.2 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY MORNING. * IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...LELAND AVENUE FLOODS AND FLOODING ON PARK DRIVE IS LIKELY. && LAT...LON 4321 9286 4321 9273 4301 9255 4293 9255 4304 9273 $$ MNC099-200847- /O.CON.KARX.FL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-140621T1236Z/ /DOBM5.1.ER.140619T1740Z.140620T0300Z.140620T1836Z.NO/ 1247 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE DOBBINS CREEK AT AUSTIN 2NE. * UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. * AT 12:30 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.3 FEET. * FLOOD STAGE IS 11.5 FEET. * MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE TODAY AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 13.9 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY. && LAT...LON 4366 9297 4368 9296 4373 9287 4374 9277 4369 9279 $$ MNC099-200847- /O.CON.KARX.FL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-140622T1240Z/ /TRCM5.3.ER.140617T1848Z.140620T1200Z.140621T1840Z.NR/ 1247 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE TURTLE CREEK NEAR AUSTIN 3NW. * UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. * AT 12:30 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.1 FEET. * FLOOD STAGE IS 10.5 FEET. * MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 14.0 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY. && LAT...LON 4370 9305 4368 9300 4365 9297 4364 9298 4367 9305 $$
274 WGUS83 KARX 192205 FLSARX FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 505 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014 RIVER FORECASTS TAKE INTO ACCOUNT BOTH OBSERVED AND FORECAST PRECIPITATION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... DO NOT DRIVE CARS INTO FLOODED AREAS. REMEMBER...IT TAKES ONLY TWO FEET OF WATER TO FLOAT MOST AUTOMOBILES...INCLUDING SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES. TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN. ADDITIONAL RIVER AND WEATHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE . && MNC099-201305- /O.CON.KARX.FL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-140621T1800Z/ /LANM5.1.ER.140617T2345Z.140618T1545Z.140621T0000Z.NO/ 505 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE CEDAR RIVER AT LANSING. * UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. * AT 4:30 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.2 FEET. * FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET. * FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY EVENING. * IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING BEGINS. && LAT...LON 4385 9298 4378 9293 4372 9295 4372 9297 4385 9304 $$ MNC099-201305- /O.CON.KARX.FL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-140621T1800Z/ /ASTM5.1.ER.140618T1912Z.140621T0000Z.140621T0000Z.NO/ 505 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE CEDAR RIVER AT AUSTIN. * UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. * AT 12:00 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.9 FEET. * FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. * FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY EVENING. * IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...THE CITY OF AUSTIN TAKES SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO WARN PEOPLE AND BUSINESSES. && LAT...LON 4372 9295 4361 9297 4361 9299 4368 9299 4372 9297 $$ IAC067-201305- /O.CON.KARX.FL.W.0035.000000T0000Z-140623T0454Z/ /CCYI4.2.ER.140619T0118Z.140621T0600Z.140622T1054Z.NO/ 505 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE CEDAR RIVER AT CHARLES CITY. * UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. * AT 4:30 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.0 FEET. * FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET. * MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 16.2 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY MORNING. * IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...LELAND AVENUE FLOODS AND FLOODING ON PARK DRIVE IS LIKELY. && LAT...LON 4321 9286 4321 9273 4301 9255 4293 9255 4304 9273 $$ MNC099-201304- /O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-140620T2145Z/ /DOBM5.1.ER.140620T0130Z.140620T0300Z.140620T0345Z.NO/ 505 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE DOBBINS CREEK AT AUSTIN 2NE. * UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. * AT 4:30 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.1 FEET. * FLOOD STAGE IS 11.5 FEET. * MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 11.6 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING. && LAT...LON 4366 9297 4368 9296 4373 9287 4374 9277 4369 9279 $$ MNC099-201304- /O.CON.KARX.FL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-140622T1240Z/ /TRCM5.3.ER.140617T1848Z.140620T1200Z.140621T1840Z.NR/ 505 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE TURTLE CREEK NEAR AUSTIN 3NW. * UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. * AT 4:30 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.3 FEET. * FLOOD STAGE IS 10.5 FEET. * MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 14.0 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY. && LAT...LON 4370 9305 4368 9300 4365 9297 4364 9298 4367 9305 $$
208 WGUS83 KARX 200208 FLSARX FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 908 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014 RIVER FORECASTS TAKE INTO ACCOUNT BOTH OBSERVED AND FORECAST PRECIPITATION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... DO NOT DRIVE CARS INTO FLOODED AREAS. REMEMBER...IT TAKES ONLY TWO FEET OF WATER TO FLOAT MOST AUTOMOBILES...INCLUDING SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES. TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN. ADDITIONAL RIVER AND WEATHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE . && MNC099-200238- /O.CAN.KARX.FL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-140621T1800Z/ /LANM5.1.ER.140617T2345Z.140618T1545Z.000000T0000Z.NO/ 908 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014 THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE CEDAR RIVER AT LANSING. * AT 8:30 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.5 FEET. * FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET. * FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 17.9 FEET. THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 16.8 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. $$ MNC099-200238- /O.CAN.KARX.FL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-140621T1800Z/ /ASTM5.N.ER.140618T1912Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/ 908 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014 THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE CEDAR RIVER AT AUSTIN. * AT 12:00 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.9 FEET. * FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. * FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 13.9 FEET. THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 13.1 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. $$ MNC099-200238- /O.CAN.KARX.FL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-140620T2145Z/ /DOBM5.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/ 908 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014 THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE DOBBINS CREEK AT AUSTIN 2NE. * AT 8:30 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.7 FEET. * FLOOD STAGE IS 11.5 FEET. * FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 11.0 FEET. THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 9.2 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS La Crosse, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Jun 18, 7:10 AM CDT, 31 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 18, 7:10 AM CDT, 31 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
710 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...SHRA/TSRA/SEVERE CHANCES AND
HEAVY RAIN THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD LOW PRESSURE IN FAR NORTHEAST CO WITH A
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHEAST ACROSS NEB THEN ACROSS NORTHERN IA.
THIS BOUNDARY AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE
OF A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO/OVER IT REMAIN THE MAIN
FORCING MECHANISMS FOR SHRA/TSRA ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS
MORNING. AFTER A LULL/SLOW START THRU MUCH OF THE EVENING...
CONVECTION GENERALLY INCREASING FROM SOUTHEAST SD TO MUCH OF WI
EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST CELLS SLOWER MOVING THIS MORNING...CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
NO BIG PROBLEMS NOTED WITH 18.00Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. SOLUTIONS
RATHER SIMILAR IN THE LARGER SCALE FOR TODAY/TONIGHT AS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES LOW/TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TREND FAVORS
FASTER OF THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THE PORTION OF THE TROUGH MOVING
INTO NEB/SD/ND BY 12Z THU. BETTER CONSENSUS OF THE SFC LOW/TROUGH/
FRONT TO NEAR THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER AT 12Z THU. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF
MESO-SCALE/LOWER-LEVEL DETAIL DIFFERENCES...WHICH IMPACT CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION THE NEXT 24-36 HRS. GIVEN THESE DETAIL DIFFERENCES WITH
IMPACTS ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE AT BEST THIS CYCLE.
SHORT-TERM FCST PROBLEMATIC THIS CYCLE WITH NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CAN-GEM
STRUGGLING ON CONVECTION TIMING/PLACEMENT EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST
HRRR AND RAP13 HIGH-RES/WRF RUNS DOING BETTER CAPTURING SHRA/TSRA
TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING. SHRA/TSRA MOTION GRADUALLY BECOMING
EASTERLY AS CONVECTION/COMPLEX MATURES AND TAKES ON THE CORFIDI
VECTOR MOTION...AND HEADING INTO THE FCST AREA. MAINTENANCE AS IT
COMES EAST THRU THE MID MORNING HOURS IS THE BIGGER QUESTION. THE
STRONGER OF THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE
PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER NORTHWEST IA...AND WEAKENS THRU 12Z AND 18Z
TODAY. HOWEVER MODELS INDICATE CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF 925-850MB
LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER NORTHERN IA/SOUTHERN MN THRU AT LEAST
12Z. WILL FOLLOW TRENDS OF HRRR/RUC13 AND CARRY LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS MORNING...TRENDING DOWNWARD THRU THE
MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE/INFLOW GRADUALLY WEAKEN...
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THIS. LOWER LEVEL FORCING/LIFT
INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT PROGGED TO BE JUST SOUTHWEST
OF THE FCST AREA AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKING TO APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. CONTINUED THE 60-70 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TONIGHT.
WITH PW VALUES OF AROUND 1.75 INCHES OR HIGHER IN THE INFLOW AIR...
WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF AROUND 4KM AND THE SLOWER STORM MOTION...TSRA
WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAIN RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HR. FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WAS DUE TO EXPIRE AT 7 AM THIS MORNING. WILL EXTEND THIS
TO 7 AM THU. GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE AREA AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR FOCUSING LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/LIFT OF THIS AIRMASS IN THE AREA...THE THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINS/FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES TONIGHT. EXPECTATIONS ARE THERE WILL
BE A LULL IN THE SHRA/TSRA IN THE FCST AREA AROUND MID-DAY TODAY...
BUT SEEMS EASIER TO JUST RUN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THRU 12Z THU.
EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS MAY OCCUR REMAINS IN QUESTION BUT 3
HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA ARE
AROUND 2 INCHES OR LESS. SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSRA CONTINUES
TODAY/TONIGHT...SEE SWODY1 FOR DETAILS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THU THRU FRI NIGHT...CONTINUED
HIGHER SHRA/TSRA CHANCES...SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN THREATS THU/THU NIGHT.
18.00Z MODELS OFFER SLOWLY IMPROVING AGREEMENT THU THRU FRI NIGHT AS
THE US/CAN BORDER MID LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND PUSHES 2 LOWER
LEVEL/SFC TROUGH/FRONTS INTO THE FCST AREA. FIRST OF THESE TO
ADVANCE IN THU NIGHT AND THE SECOND TO PUSH TOWARD THE AREA FRI
NIGHT. PLENTY OF MESO-SCALE/LOWER LEVEL DETAIL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
IN THE THU-FRI NIGHT PERIOD...MAKING FCST CONFIDENCE THIS PERIOD
ALSO AVERAGE AT BEST.
FIRST LOWER LEVEL TROUGH FRONT TO HAVE 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF PW AHEAD
OF IT THU. WITH FALLING HGTS ALOFT AND WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING THRU
THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL LOW....LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT TO AID
CONVECTION THU. STRONGER OF THE LOWER LEVEL FORCING/LIFT SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA THU...SLOWLY TRANSLATING EAST OF THE AREA THU NIGHT.
CONTINUED THE 60-75 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THU...TRENDING
DOWNWARD AND EASTWARD THU NIGHT. POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR MORE
DOWNPOURS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS THU/THU NIGHT...AND IN TIME WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THRU THU/THU NIGHT. WITH
SOME INCREASE OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR THU/THU EVENING...A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THU. SEE SWODY2 FOR
DETAILS. THIS THU/THU EVENING RISK MAY BE MUTED IF CONVECTION IS
ONGOING OR DEVELOPS ALREADY THU MORNING.
BY THE TIME THE SECOND LOWER LEVEL TROUGH/FRONT ARRIVES MORE
WESTERLY 850-700MB FLOW BEHIND THE FIRST TROUGH/FRONT WILL HAVE
PUSHED SOME OF THE DEEPER/HIGHER PW AIRMASS EAST OF THE AREA. WITH
THE AREA BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS FRI...LESSER SHRA/TSRA CHANCES OR
TRENDING TOWARD DRY SEEMS REASONABLE. SOME INCREASE OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING FRI NIGHT AS THE SFC-850MB
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA. 20-40 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BY
LATER FRI NIGHT ALSO REASONABLE. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS
LOWS FOR THU THRU FRI NIGHT.
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.../DAYS 4-7/...
ONCE AGAIN...DID NOT SPEND A LOT OF TIME LOOKING AT THE DETAILS IN
THE DAY 4-7 PORTION OF THE FCST.
18.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WEAKEN AND TRACK THE US/CAN BORDER LOW
FURTHER NORTH/EAST SAT...WITH BROAD WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
BREAKS DOWN SUNDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER CENTRAL NOAM AND
ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH DROPS DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THIS RIDGE
TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF TIMING/DETAIL DIFFERENCES
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGHING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
MON/TUE. NEEDLESS TO DAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE SAT-TUE PORTION OF THE
FCST IS BELOW AVERAGE.
MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN SUGGESTS A SERIES OF LOWER LEVEL TROUGHS AND
ROUNDS OF INCREASED MOISTURE/FORCING/LIFT TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SAT THRU TUE. THIS PERIOD LOOKS DRIER THAN THIS WEEK...BUT MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HAS PERSISTENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. BY
SUNDAY...WITH MORE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGHING BRINGING COOLER MID LEVEL AIR TO THE REGION...TEMPS FOR
SUN-TUE DO LOOK TO COOL TO MORE NEAR NORMAL VALUES...WITH LOWER DEW
POINTS/HUMIDITY VALUES. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT
THRU TUE APPEAR TO HAVE THIS WELL TRENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 710 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
PERIODS OF TS/SHRA WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. TRYING TO
PINPOINT THE HIGHEST THREAT TIME...AND THE ACCOMPANYING IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE PROBLEMATIC. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ADVANCED EAST OF THE
KRST/KLSE...AND NOT ANTICIPATING MORE STORMS /OTHER THAN A STRAY ONE
THROUGH 9 AM/ THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD LEAD TO RE-
IGNITION OF SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND THE WEST-EAST RUNNING FRONT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND MORE NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT. GOING TO
ADD A TEMPO GROUP TOWARD THIS TIME TO INDICATE THE LIKELY-HOOD OF
STORMS DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE
EXACT TIMING...NOR THAT THIS WOULD BE THE ONLY PERIOD WITH IFR/MVFR
STORMS. ANTICIPATE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH AROUND ANY STORM.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THU NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACHING 4.0 KM. TSRA WILL CONTINUE
TO BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. REPEATED ROUNDS OF THESE TSRA WILL
PRODUCE A HEIGHTENED FLASH FLOOD THREAT THRU THU NIGHT. HAVE
EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THRU 7 AM
THURSDAY...AND THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THRU THU/THU
NIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR WIZ032-033-
041>044-053>055-061.
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.
&&
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....RIECK
HYDROLOGY....RRSHazardous weather outlook, Jun 18, 4:32 AM CDT, 3 hours 9 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 432 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014 IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029- 032>034-041>044-053>055-061-191000- MITCHELL-HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FLOYD-CHICKASAW-FAYETTE- CLAYTON-WABASHA-DODGE-OLMSTED-WINONA-MOWER-FILLMORE-HOUSTON- TAYLOR-CLARK-BUFFALO-TREMPEALEAU-JACKSON-LA CROSSE-MONROE-JUNEAU- ADAMS-VERNON-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT- 432 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT ONE ROUND OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE STRONGEST OF THE STORMS WILL MOVE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 THROUGH 9 AM. THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WHICH MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN WITH THIS ROUND OF STORMS BUT IT APPEARS TO BE DURING THE MID EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS AND FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING RAINS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. IF STORMS OCCUR EARLIER IN THE EVENING...AN ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD BE POSSIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THERE IS ANOTHER RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND FLASH FLOODING. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCERN IF THERE WOULD BE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL REPORTS ARE APPRECIATED. .EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION... NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED AT THIS TIME. RRS
In the hours before
Local storm report, Jun 18, 6:40 AM CDT, 1 hour 1 minute before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
640 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0545 AM TSTM WND DMG 2 S WEST SALEM 43.87N 91.08W
06/18/2014 LA CROSSE WI NWS EMPLOYEE
TREES DOWN OVER COUNTY ROAD M SOUTH OF WEST SALEM.
&&
RODSLocal storm report, Jun 18, 6:42 AM CDT, 59 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
642 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0525 AM FLASH FLOOD 10 E BLACK RIVER FALLS 44.30N 90.64W
06/18/2014 JACKSON WI LAW ENFORCEMENT
WATER REPORTED OVER NUMEROUS ROADS ACROSS EASTERN JACKSON
COUNTY.
&&
RODSSpecial weather statement, Jun 18, 6:49 AM CDT, 52 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
649 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
IAZ030-WIZ055-061-181215-
CLAYTON-RICHLAND-GRANT-
649 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CLAYTON...
SOUTHEASTERN RICHLAND AND EASTERN GRANT COUNTIES...
AT 648 AM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR RICHLAND CENTER TO NEAR FENNIMORE TO NEAR
LUXEMBURG...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.
WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THESE
STORMS HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH.
THE STRONG WINDS COULD BRING DOWN SOME TREES OR BRANCHES. TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY WITH THE STORMS.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PLATTEVILLE...RICHLAND CENTER...LANCASTER...CUBA CITY...MUSCODA...
HAZEL GREEN...DICKEYVILLE...PRESTON...GEORGETOWN...LONE ROCK...
ARTHUR...MONTFORT...POTOSI...LIVINGSTON...ELLENBORO...TENNYSON...
UNION AND NORTH BUENA VISTA.
THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
LAT...LON 4263 9070 4265 9075 4267 9089 4264 9090
4264 9100 4296 9062 4335 9034 4334 9020
4333 9019 4317 9020 4321 9030 4320 9043
4251 9042 4251 9064
TIME...MOT...LOC 1148Z 291DEG 29KT 4332 9027 4295 9055 4256 9104
AJLocal storm report, Jun 18, 6:54 AM CDT, 47 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
654 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0630 AM HEAVY RAIN BLACK RIVER FALLS 44.30N 90.85W
06/18/2014 E3.05 INCH JACKSON WI PUBLIC
&&
NWS LA CROSSE WI
IRIS SYSTEMLocal storm report, Jun 18, 6:55 AM CDT, 46 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
655 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0647 AM HAIL FENNIMORE 42.98N 90.65W
06/18/2014 E1.00 INCH GRANT WI TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
RODSLocal storm report, Jun 18, 7:25 AM CDT, 16 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
725 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN TAYLOR 44.32N 91.12W
06/18/2014 E4.00 INCH JACKSON WI PUBLIC
&&
NWS LA CROSSE WI
IRIS SYSTEMThe office that day
Everything else NWS La Crosse, WI issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2:18 AM CDT | Special Weather Statement | ARX | Dodge | 27 min |
| Jun 18, 3:28 AM CDT | Special Weather Statement | ARX | Mower | 32 min |
| Jun 18, 3:39 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ARX | Mower | 51 min |
| Jun 18, 4:33 AM CDT | Special Weather Statement | ARX | Fillmore, Houston, Olmsted, Winona | 27 min |
| Jun 18, 4:42 AM CDT | Special Weather Statement | ARX | Winona | 33 min |
| Jun 18, 5:07 AM CDT | Special Weather Statement | ARX | Houston | 38 min |
| Jun 18, 3:25 PM CDT | River Flood Warning | ARX | Mower | 60 hr |
Nearby
River Flood Warnings in Minnesota, 2014Every river flood warning in 2014
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.