Storm Warning 26, NWS Juneau, AK

765 
FZAK52 PAJK 050810 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1110 PM AKST TUE NOV 4 2014

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-060215-
1110 PM AKST TUE NOV 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STORM FORCE LOW IS DEVELOPING WELL SW OF DIXON ENTRANCE AND
WILL MOVE TO 80 NM W OF HAIDA GWAII AT 976 MB BY LATE WED
AFTERNOON. THIS STORM WILL HAVE A VERY STRONG ASSOCIATED FRONT.
THE LOW WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CAPE OMMANEY WED NIGHT AND WILL
RAPIDLY DISSIPATE INLAND ON THU. 

$$

PKZ041-060215-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1110 PM AKST TUE NOV 4 2014

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. SHOWERS.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT
BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO SW GALE TO
40 KT LATE. SEAS 22 FT BUILDING TO 26 FT LATE. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-060215-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1110 PM AKST TUE NOV 4 2014

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. SHOWERS.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT
BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE STORM FORCE WIND TO 60 KT BECOMING W GALE
TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS 20 FT BUILDING TO 25 FT LATE. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-060215-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1110 PM AKST TUE NOV 4 2014

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE GALE TO 45 KT BECOMING NW LATE. SEAS 15 FT
BUILDING TO 19 FT LATE. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-060215-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1110 PM AKST TUE NOV 4 2014

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 25 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT
SUBSIDING TO 8 FT LATE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-060215-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1110 PM AKST TUE NOV 4 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE LATE. SEAS 8 FT.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 



$$

500 
FZAK52 PAJK 051237
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2014 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-060100-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2014 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE N TO THE PANHANDLE AROUND CAPE
DECISION THIS EVENING AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. A SECOND LOW WILL
MOVE NE TO KODIAK ISLAND THU NIGHT WHILE THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER
FRONT WILL SPREAD GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE COAST THU NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-060100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2014 

...STORM WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 40 KT IN THE MORNING...THEN
INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 21 FT
SUBSIDING TO 17 FT LATE. SHOWERS.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-060100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2014 

...STORM WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT BECOMING W 35 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT
SUBSIDING TO 15 FT LATE. SHOWERS.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-060100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2014 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW LATE. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-060100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2014 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING E
20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. S
SWELL IN THE EVENING. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-060100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2014 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW LATE. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL IN
THE EVENING. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

304 
FZAK52 PAJK 052041 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1141 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2014

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-060100-
1141 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE N TO THE PANHANDLE AROUND CAPE
DECISION THIS EVENING AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. A SECOND LOW WILL
MOVE NE TO KODIAK ISLAND THU NIGHT WHILE THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER
FRONT WILL SPREAD GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE COAST THU NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-060100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1141 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2014

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 21 FT
SUBSIDING TO 17 FT LATE. SHOWERS.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-060100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1141 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2014

...STORM WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT BECOMING W 35 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT
SUBSIDING TO 15 FT LATE. SHOWERS.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-060100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1141 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW LATE. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-060100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1141 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2014

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. S
SWELL IN THE EVENING. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-060100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1141 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2014

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW LATE. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL IN
THE EVENING. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
600 AM AKST TUE NOV 4 2014

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY NIGHT'S STORM WAS A LITTLE WEAKER THAN
EXPECTED, TOOK A MORE EASTWARD TRACK THAN EXPECTED, AND MOVED
INTO THE PANHANDLE A LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED. LITTLE
VARIATIONS ON ALL THESE PARAMETERS HAD LARGE RAMIFICATIONS FOR THE
PREDICTED HIGH WIND EVENT. ALTHOUGH STRONG WINDS WERE RECORDED IN
KLAWOCK, KETCHIKAN, ANNETTE, METLAKATLA, AND EVEN PETERSBURG, HIGH
WIND GUSTS WERE NOT REALIZED. IN ADDITION, BECAUSE OF THE MORE
EASTWARD TRACK OF THE STORM OVER CAPE DECISION, SITKA LARGELY
AVOIDED ANY SOUTHEAST WINDS. WITH THE SECOND WRAP FEATURE BEHIND
THE STORM, SITKA IS NOW EXPERIENCING STRONG WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...THESE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. AN ASSOCIATED GALE FOR MARINE ZONES
42 AND 310 WILL FADE LATER THIS MORNING.

NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE SUCCESSFULLY CAPTURED THE SYSTEM'S SPEED.
MSAS ANALYSIS HAS TAKEN THE SYSTEM NOW NORTH OF POINT RETREAT, AND
THUS LATE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST REGARDING SOUTHERLY
FLIPS IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT WITH
MAGNITUDES THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GRADIENTS NOT SUPER IMPRESSIVE,
SO IT ALL DEPENDS ON THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM AND
HOW QUICKLY PRESSURES RISE IN THE SYSTEM'S LEE. STARTED THIS
MORNING WITH A PLETHORA OF SMALL CRAFTS THROUGH THE NORTH-SOUTH
INSIDE CHANNELS, AND CULMINATING WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFTS TO 30 KT
TONIGHT FOR LYNN CANAL. MEANWHILE, RAISED CROSS SOUND TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SMALL CRAFT. EVEN AS THIS SPOT NORMALLY GALES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND MANY A SYSTEM, FEEL THE WEAKENING OF THE
STORM MOVING INLAND AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GULF MAY INHIBIT GALE DEVELOPMENT. WEAKENING WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE MEGA SYSTEM DISCUSSED
BELOW WILL HAVE NOT INFLUENCED THE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO DEMAND
DIRECTIONAL FLIPS TO THE NORTH.

LOTS OF COOLER, UNSTABLE AIR (500 MB TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN
-30 C) HAS BEEN ENVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THUS WE HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER A WIDE AREA OF THE GULF WITH
THE THREAT SPREADING INLAND FROM COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS DID DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OFFSHORE OF
FAIRWEATHER.

USED A BLEND OF NAM, HIGH RES NMM, HIGH RES ARW, AND ECMWF FOR
CHANGES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE FOR TIMING OF SPEED
RISES IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD FOR MOST OTHER ELEMENTS.

.LONG TERM...THE BIG ISSUE IN THE MID RANGE WILL BE THE VERY
STRONG LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVER THE AREA THAT NIGHT. THE LOW IS FORMING THIS
MORNING IN THE NORTH PACIFIC AS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE
BAROCLINIC LEAF SIGNATURE. THERE WILL BE VERY STRONG CYCLOGENISIS
AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FROM THE BERING DIGS INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND INTERACTS WITH THE TROPICAL AIR BEING ADVECTED
NORTHWARD. THE DYNAMICS ALONG WITH A VERY STRONG 150KT JET WILL
ALLOW THIS LOW TO DEEPEN TO THE LOWER 970MBS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS IT LIFTS INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF. THE LOW WILL MOVE
OVER THE CAPE DECISION AREA AND THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
AND WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO DRIFT NNE AND INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS TROPICAL ORIGINS AND WILL BE ADVECTING VERY
HIGH PRECIPITABLE VALUES OVER THE AREA WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z NAM COMING IN LINE WITH
THE MORE CONSISTENT AND FAVORED 00Z GEM. THIS HAS LED TO INCREASE
CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH THAT A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SO WITH THAT SAID...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY OVER
THE SOUTHEAST GULF TO STORM FORCE FROM THE ESE BY THE AFTERNOON.
THE
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS WILL SEE THE CONDITIONS BUT FROM SUMNER
STRAIT NORTHWARD THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE NORTH TO
RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 KT BY THE AFTERNOON. LAND WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 MPH BUT GUSTS
HIGHER THAN 60 MPH IS POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO THE EVENING. THE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF LAND AREAS WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS BUT IT WILL BE LOCALIZED AND
BE IN THE RANGE OF 30 TO 40 MPH. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY
PRODUCE SOME HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE JUNEAU AREA. AS THE LOW LIFTS
INLAND THROUGH THE EVENING TIME FRAME THERE WILL BE ANOTHER LARGE
INCREASE IN WINDS BUT FROM THE SSW BEHIND THE LOW AND FROM THE
STRONG PRESSURE RISES. SO THE STRONG TO HIGH WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND THE WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM N TO S
OVER THE CENTRAL AREAS. THE LAND FALLING LOW WILL BE NEAR THE HIGH
TIDE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MAY CAUSE SOME COASTAL FLOODING THAT
COMMUNITIES WILL NEED TO WATCH OUT FOR. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH TO BE LESS THAN GALES FROM THE SOUTH BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS WILL REMAIN TO SEE SOME NORTHERLY WINDS.

THE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL SLOW DIMINISH OVER
THE NORTHERN AREAS WITH SOME SUN COMING OUT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
INNER CHANNEL AND NORTHERN GULF WITH OFFSHORE FLOW. THE SOUTHERN
AREAS WILL SEE HEAVY RAIN MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH THE WARM FRONT
BY THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG RAIN RATES. THE HIGH RAIN RATES ALONG
WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL INCREASE THE THREATS OF MUDSLIDES
NEAR THE STEEP TERRAIN. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. THE RAIN WILL MAKE IT
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THE FAR NORTHERN
AREAS MAY SEE SOME SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AIR AND WINDS
FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE ALONG
THE HIGHWAYS ESPECIALLY THE HAINES HIGHWAY.

THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT...

WEATHER PATTERN REMAINING ACTIVE FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
THURSDAY AS THE FORMER STORM FORCE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND
INTO INTERIOR BRITISH COLUMBIA AND RAPIDLY WEAKENS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE INSIDE PASSAGE SOUTH OF JUNEAU. FOR LYNN
CANAL, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BRIEFLY
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS, HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE ON
THURSDAY. SNOW LEVEL WILL REMAIN LOW ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO TAKE PLACE
ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER. SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINOR.

 THE NEXT BIG WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS LOW IS FORECASTED TO
HAVE SUB 980 MB PRESSURE. A STRONG WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST
BY FRIDAY MORNING. DO EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE
OUTSIDE COASTAL WATERS. STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG
THE OUTER COAST. WITH MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING FROM THE
SUBTROPICS, DO EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FOUND IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

 FOR THE WEEKEND, MODELS ARE HINTING ON THE WEATHER PATTERN
BECOMING LESS ACTIVE. THE REMNANT OF TYPHOON NURI IS EXPECTED TO
HEAD TOWARDS THE BERING SEA. SELECTED NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
INDICATING NURI WILL BECOME A FAIRLY POTENT EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM,
AND IT WILL HELP BUILD A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
ALASKA. THIS MEANS THAT THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL DRYING FOR THE
PANHANDLE THIS WEEKEND.
&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY

     EVENING FOR AKZ023-026>028.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING FOR AKZ023.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
PKZ012-013-022-031>036-041-043-051-052.

&&

JWA/ABJ/RCL

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU