Gale Warning 335, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
418 PM AKST TUE NOV 4 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH 500 MB TEMPS
AROUND -34C. HAD ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER TODAY TYPICAL OF THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH A COUPLE OF STRIKES OVER BARANOF ISLAND THIS
MORNING. KEPT A HINT OF THESE IN THE FORECASTS THIS EVENING.

AS WE ARE FINISHING WITH THE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST
NIGHT WE ARE GETTING READY FOR A MONDO STORM CENTER TO MOVE UP PAST
DIXON ENTRANCE MAKING LANDFALL AROUND CAPE OMMANEY 06Z THU.IT HAS
BEEN INTERESTING TO FOLLOW THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF OUR SEVERAL
COMPUTER MODELS TO SEE THE TRENDS AND PROPOSED TRACKS. 04/12Z GEM
WAS THE DEEPEST THIS TIME WITH A 969 MB OFF DIXON ENTRANCE WED
AFTERNOON. GFS HAS BEEN STEADY AS A WEAKER ONE AND THE ECMWF BACKED
OFF WITH TOO RAPID DISSIPATION BY EVENING. NAM STARTED TO FOLLOW
THE GFS. JET SUPPORT IS NOT PERFECT. THIS ONE IS NOT TO LOADED WITH
MOISTURE.

AS THE MODELS HAVE CHANGED THEIR MINDS WE DECIDED TO STAY THE
COURSE AND NOT DRASTICALLY CHANGE THE FORECASTS THIS PACKAGE. WE
WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WATCHES DUE TO ABOUT 60% CERTAINTY FOR
60 MPH IN SOME PLACES. MORE CONFIDENT WITH STORM FORCE WINDS AND
SOME HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS PLUS HUGE SEAS ARRIVING ON THE TAIL END.
THINKING THE BENT BACK OCCLUDED FRONT ON THIS ONE WILL BE VERY
STRONG SO PUT SOME REALLY STRONG NW GUSTS ON THE BACK SIDE. TIDES
WILL BE HIGH BUT NOT SUPPER HIGH WITH SOME ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECT THE
BEACH LOGS TO FLY ON SOME SPOTS PARTICULARLY SOUTHERN BARANOF AND
OUTSIDE OF PRINCE OF WALES. LOOK FOR AN UPDATE ON THESE FORECASTS
AND ESPECIALLY THE WATCHES BASED ON 05/00Z NEW MODEL RUNS. HERE
GOES.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...ON THURSDAY THE BIG SYSTEM
DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT DEPARTS TO THE NORTH. IN
THE MORNING THERE WILL BE A COL OVER THE CENTRAL LYNN CANAL ARE
WHICH WILL SEPARATE THE NORTH/SOUTH WINDS. A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE TROUGH WHERE THE COL IS THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY THEN BECOME MORE SCATTERED GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
BE WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE AN OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THE FRONT HAS A TROPICAL
CONNECTION...MEANING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL AREAS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE OUTSIDE
WATERS AND OCEAN ENTRANCES LATE THURS NIGHT.

PRECIP BECOMES MORE INTERMITTENT AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THE BEST
CHANCE OF A BREAK IN THE RAIN LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOST
OF SUNDAY. HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS
TIME FRAME SO HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OR RAIN IN THE
FORECAST. MODELS DIFFER MORE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH WHERE
THE NEXT LOW COMES FROM. BEING FALL TIME STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY
LONG DURATION DRY PERIODS YET.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THE MID RANGE FORECAST THEN RELIED
LARGELY ON NATIONAL WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE IN THE MID RANGE THEN LOWER FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR AKZ023-026>028.
         STRONG WIND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ029.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ035-036-041-042.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-033.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-022-031-032-034-043-051-052.

&&

JC/FERRIN

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