High Wind Warning 11, NWS Juneau, AK

870 
WWAK77 PAJK 051425
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
525 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2014

AKZ025-052300-
/X.EXA.PAJK.HW.W.0011.141106T0000Z-141106T0900Z/
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JUNEAU
525 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT
AKST TONIGHT. 

* LOCATION...DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS

* WIND...NORTHEAST WIND 25 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 65 MPH.

* TIMING...MOUNTAIN WAVE WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING IN THE
  AFTERNOON AND PEAK EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
  OVERNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...THESE WINDS COULD CAUSE BRANCHES TO FALL ONTO POWER
  LINES. BE PREPARED IN CASE THERE IS A LOSS OF POWER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...STAY ALERT FOR FLYING DEBRIS AND
DOORS SLAMMING SHUT.

BE SURE TO PROTECT BOATS AND AIRCRAFT.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL
WEATHER NEWS SOURCE FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 2 PM AKST WEDNESDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ027-028-052300-
/X.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0011.141105T2100Z-141106T0900Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA
525 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO
MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT...

* LOCATION...THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INCLUDING PRINCE OF WALES 
  ISLAND AND THE KETCHIKAN AREA. 

* WIND...30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH. STRONGEST 
  WINDS IN COASTAL LOCATIONS. 

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
  DAY WEDNESDAY...SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST IN THE
  EVENING...THEN DIMINISH RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT. STRONGEST CONDITIONS
  WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

* IMPACTS...THESE WINDS COULD CAUSE BRANCHES TO FALL ONTO POWER 
  LINES. BE PREPARED IN CASE THERE IS A LOSS OF POWER. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...STAY ALERT FOR FLYING DEBRIS AND
DOORS SLAMMING SHUT.

BE SURE TO PROTECT BOATS AND AIRCRAFT.

MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS STORM.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL
WEATHER NEWS SOURCE FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 2 PM AKST WEDNESDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ023-026-052300-
/X.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0011.141106T0000Z-141106T0900Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...PETERSBURG...
WRANGELL...KAKE
525 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT...

* LOCATION...PORTIONS OF THE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INCLUDING
  SOUTHERN BARANOF ISLAND...KUIU ISLAND...SOUTHERN KUPREANOF
  ISLAND...ETOLIN ISLAND AND ZAREMBO ISLAND.

* WIND...25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS IN
  COASTAL LOCATIONS.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
  DAY WEDNESDAY...SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE EVENING...
  THEN DIMINISH RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT. ALONG SOUTHERN BARANOF
  ISLAND...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
  SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISH LATE. STRONGEST CONDITIONS WILL
  OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

* IMPACTS...THESE WINDS COULD CAUSE BRANCHES TO FALL ONTO POWER 
  LINES. BE PREPARED IN CASE THERE IS A LOSS OF POWER. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...STAY ALERT FOR FLYING DEBRIS AND
DOORS SLAMMING SHUT.

BE SURE TO PROTECT BOATS AND AIRCRAFT.

MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS STORM.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL
WEATHER NEWS SOURCE FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 2 PM AKST WEDNESDAY OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

421 
WWAK77 PAJK 052300
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
200 PM AKST WED NOV 5 2014

AKZ023-025-026-060700-
/X.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0011.141106T0000Z-141106T0900Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...JUNEAU...
PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE
200 PM AKST WED NOV 5 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST
TONIGHT...

* LOCATION...PORTIONS OF THE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INCLUDING
  SOUTHERN BARANOF ISLAND...KUIU ISLAND...SOUTHERN KUPREANOF
  ISLAND...ETOLIN ISLAND AND ZAREMBO ISLAND. ALSO DOWNTOWN JUNEAU
  AND DOUGLAS.

* WIND...25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS
  IN COASTAL LOCATIONS. NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS...NORTHEAST
  WIND WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH OVER THE
  NEXT FEW HOURS.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
  AFTERNOON...SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN
  DIMINISH RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT. ALONG SOUTHERN BARANOF
  ISLAND...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
  SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISH LATE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
  OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. 

* IMPACTS...THESE WINDS COULD CAUSE BRANCHES TO FALL ONTO POWER 
  LINES. BE PREPARED IN CASE THERE IS A LOSS OF POWER. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...STAY ALERT FOR FLYING DEBRIS AND
DOORS SLAMMING SHUT.

BE SURE TO PROTECT BOATS AND AIRCRAFT.

MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS STORM.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL
WEATHER NEWS SOURCE FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 10 PM AKST WEDNESDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ027-028-060700-
/X.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-141106T0900Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA
200 PM AKST WED NOV 5 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST
TONIGHT...

* LOCATION...THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INCLUDING PRINCE OF WALES 
  ISLAND AND THE KETCHIKAN AREA. 

* WIND...30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH. STRONGEST 
  WINDS IN COASTAL LOCATIONS. 

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
  DAY WEDNESDAY...SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST IN THE
  EVENING...THEN DIMINISH RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
  OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

* IMPACTS...THESE WINDS COULD CAUSE BRANCHES TO FALL ONTO POWER 
  LINES. BE PREPARED IN CASE THERE IS A LOSS OF POWER. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...STAY ALERT FOR FLYING DEBRIS AND
DOORS SLAMMING SHUT.

BE SURE TO PROTECT BOATS AND AIRCRAFT.

MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS STORM.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL
WEATHER NEWS SOURCE FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 10 PM AKST WEDNESDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

937 
WWAK77 PAJK 060656
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
956 PM AKST WED NOV 5 2014

AKZ023-025>028-060800-
/X.CAN.PAJK.HW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-141106T0900Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...JUNEAU...
PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA
956 PM AKST WED NOV 5 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. 

HIGH WINDS AND WIND GUSTS WERE RECORDED OVER MUCH OF THE WARNING
AREA THIS EVENING. PEAK CONDITIONS OBSERVED OCCURRED IN THE
KETCHIKAN AREA WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 63 MPH AND PEAK GUSTS OF 92
MPH ON THE ROOF AT KETCHIKAN AIRPORT. 

IN JUNEAU...WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 60 MPH WERE RECORDED IN SOUTH
DOUGLAS AND AT THE ALASKA MARINE LINES TERMINAL BETWEEN 330PM AND
700PM. THE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE WINDS TONIGHT HAS MOVED
INLAND AND IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING. SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE STILL
POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT NO ADDITIONAL HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED. 

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
418 PM AKST TUE NOV 4 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH 500 MB TEMPS
AROUND -34C. HAD ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER TODAY TYPICAL OF THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH A COUPLE OF STRIKES OVER BARANOF ISLAND THIS
MORNING. KEPT A HINT OF THESE IN THE FORECASTS THIS EVENING.

AS WE ARE FINISHING WITH THE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST
NIGHT WE ARE GETTING READY FOR A MONDO STORM CENTER TO MOVE UP PAST
DIXON ENTRANCE MAKING LANDFALL AROUND CAPE OMMANEY 06Z THU.IT HAS
BEEN INTERESTING TO FOLLOW THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF OUR SEVERAL
COMPUTER MODELS TO SEE THE TRENDS AND PROPOSED TRACKS. 04/12Z GEM
WAS THE DEEPEST THIS TIME WITH A 969 MB OFF DIXON ENTRANCE WED
AFTERNOON. GFS HAS BEEN STEADY AS A WEAKER ONE AND THE ECMWF BACKED
OFF WITH TOO RAPID DISSIPATION BY EVENING. NAM STARTED TO FOLLOW
THE GFS. JET SUPPORT IS NOT PERFECT. THIS ONE IS NOT TO LOADED WITH
MOISTURE.

AS THE MODELS HAVE CHANGED THEIR MINDS WE DECIDED TO STAY THE
COURSE AND NOT DRASTICALLY CHANGE THE FORECASTS THIS PACKAGE. WE
WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WATCHES DUE TO ABOUT 60% CERTAINTY FOR
60 MPH IN SOME PLACES. MORE CONFIDENT WITH STORM FORCE WINDS AND
SOME HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS PLUS HUGE SEAS ARRIVING ON THE TAIL END.
THINKING THE BENT BACK OCCLUDED FRONT ON THIS ONE WILL BE VERY
STRONG SO PUT SOME REALLY STRONG NW GUSTS ON THE BACK SIDE. TIDES
WILL BE HIGH BUT NOT SUPPER HIGH WITH SOME ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECT THE
BEACH LOGS TO FLY ON SOME SPOTS PARTICULARLY SOUTHERN BARANOF AND
OUTSIDE OF PRINCE OF WALES. LOOK FOR AN UPDATE ON THESE FORECASTS
AND ESPECIALLY THE WATCHES BASED ON 05/00Z NEW MODEL RUNS. HERE
GOES.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...ON THURSDAY THE BIG SYSTEM
DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT DEPARTS TO THE NORTH. IN
THE MORNING THERE WILL BE A COL OVER THE CENTRAL LYNN CANAL ARE
WHICH WILL SEPARATE THE NORTH/SOUTH WINDS. A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE TROUGH WHERE THE COL IS THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY THEN BECOME MORE SCATTERED GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
BE WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE AN OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THE FRONT HAS A TROPICAL
CONNECTION...MEANING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL AREAS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE OUTSIDE
WATERS AND OCEAN ENTRANCES LATE THURS NIGHT.

PRECIP BECOMES MORE INTERMITTENT AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THE BEST
CHANCE OF A BREAK IN THE RAIN LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOST
OF SUNDAY. HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS
TIME FRAME SO HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OR RAIN IN THE
FORECAST. MODELS DIFFER MORE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH WHERE
THE NEXT LOW COMES FROM. BEING FALL TIME STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY
LONG DURATION DRY PERIODS YET.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THE MID RANGE FORECAST THEN RELIED
LARGELY ON NATIONAL WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE IN THE MID RANGE THEN LOWER FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR AKZ023-026>028.
         STRONG WIND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ029.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ035-036-041-042.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-033.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-022-031-032-034-043-051-052.

&&

JC/FERRIN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU