Storm Warning 176, NWS Anchorage, AK

717 
FZAK51 PAFC 311227
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
327 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-010115-
327 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND REMAIN THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 270 NM SOUTH OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 1000 MB EARLY THU MORNING...THEN TO 85 NM SOUTH
OF YAKUTAT THU AFTERNOON AT 990 MB. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE INLAND
OVER THE PANHANDLE LATE FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-010115-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
327 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30
KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA. SEAS
10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ120-010115-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
327 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-010115-
RESURRECTION BAY-
327 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-010115-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
327 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-010115-
PORT VALDEZ-
327 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-010115-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
327 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...WINDS BECOMING S 15 KT LATE THIS MORNING. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-010115-
VALDEZ ARM-
327 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ129-010115-
PASSAGE CANAL-
327 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
55 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-010115-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
327 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR KAMISHAK
BAY.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-010115-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
327 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-010115-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
327 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ136-010115-
CHINIAK BAY-
327 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-010115-
MARMOT BAY-
327 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-010115-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
327 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF WESTERN BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ139-010115-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
327 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT DIMINISHING TO 5 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-010115-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
327 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-010115-
KACHEMAK BAY-
327 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
510 AM AKST TUE DEC 30 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
WHILE THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN CONTINUES IT APPEARS AS IF THE
LAST MAJOR DISTURBANCE IN THE TROUGH IS LIFTING OUT TOWARD THE
BERING STRAIT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS BARELY PROPAGATED TO THE
EAST OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WHILE THE LONG LIVED BERING SEA UPPER
LEVEL LOW/TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO GET SQUEEZED BY A QUICKLY
DEEPENING KAMCHATKA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE STILL IS SOME
MOISTURE WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL JET THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
AND COLDEST CLOUD TOPS HAVE MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
STATE.

THE HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TURNAGAIN ARM AND THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ANCHORAGE. MCHUGH CREEK HAS BEEN NEAR WARNING
LEVEL FOR MOST OF THE DAY WHILE THE STRONG DOWN INLET GRADIENT HAS
KEPT THE UPPER ELEVATIONS VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AND QUITE A BIT
LOWER IN MAGNITUDE. AS THE BERING SEA SURFACE LOW GAINS
LATITUDE...STRONGER SOUTHEAST GUSTS ARE BEGINNING TO MANIFEST
THEMSELVES AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE MAIN FRONT IS CURRENTLY HANGING UP ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
BRINGING A WIDE AREA OF GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF.
THE COOK INLET REGION IS REMAINING WIDELY DOWNSLOPED EXCEPT FOR
THE KACHEMAK BAY AREA WHICH IS EXPERIENCING RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES IN THE PATTERN. THE MAIN DISCREPANCY IN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS THE THE POSSIBILITY OF A TRIPLE POINT LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE KAMCHATKA LOW/FRONT. BOTH VARIANTS OF THE
CANADIAN MODEL DEVELOP A STRONG CIRCULATION ON THE FRONT BUT THIS
SOLUTION DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY...HOWEVER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES
SHOW ENHANCED MOISTURE/LIFT IN THIS REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE FRONT MOVING TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL AND ACCOMPANYING WAVE
HEADING TOWARD THE AK PEN WILL CONTINUE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL TROUGH TONIGHT. WARNING LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE
THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND
PEAK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
TONIGHT STRONG PRESSURE RISES ON THE BACK SIDE WILL BRING BRISK
SOUTHERLY FLOWS AND WARMING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. RAIN IS
EXPECTED ALONG COASTS WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES INLAND. TEMPS
COOL ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL WITH COLD ADVECTION FROM THE WEST ON WED.
AT THAT POINT MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SNOW SHOWERS.
UPSLOPE FLOW COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE EASTERN
AND NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY)...
WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY AREA AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY BEGINS TO RELAX AND BECOME LESS FAVORABLY
ORIENTED. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF DILLINGHAM AND GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AS THESE WINDS WEAKEN...SO WILL
THE CROSS BARRIER FLOW WHICH HAS KEPT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION AT
BAY ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA. COINCIDING WITH THE WEAKENED
CROSS BARRIER FLOW WILL BE A POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL ACTUALLY AID IN USHERING COLDER
AIR BACK INTO THE REGION AND POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR SNOW TO MIX
WITH THE RAIN SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND
SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY)...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE BERING STRAIT AND CHUKCHI SEA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP 30 KT WINDS GOING ACROSS THE EASTERN
BERING SEA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
ABNORMALLY NICE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOF
ISLANDS (MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LACK OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES) BY
THIS EVENING AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING.
CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK AS FAVORABLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
BERING SEA AS A 951 MB KAMCHATKA LOW MOVES TOWARD THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS AND PUSHES A FRONT INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA. THIS
FRONT WILL COLLIDE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND STALL OVER
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER BLAST OF STRONG WINDS
(POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 70 MPH NEAR SHEMYA) AND PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FORM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITH A
GALE FORCE LOW REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE NEAR YAKUTAT BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE WESTWARD AND BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE GULF AND EXTEND THROUGH THE
BARREN ISLANDS AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
ECMWF/GFS WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND NAM KEPT THE SYSTEM
FARTHER EAST AND SEEMED TO BE THE OUTLIER. WHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY WILL START TO GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL AID IN OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
SOUTHCENTRAL REGION AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODIFIED WITH THE
WARMER AIR ADVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF EXCEPT COOLER
TEMPERATURES INLAND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY
MOVES CLOSER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE COMBINED
WITH CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE WITH A WINTRY MIX ALONG THE
COASTLINE AND MAINLY SNOW INLAND WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BLOCKING HIGH FROM
THE BEAUFORT SEA EXTENDING SOUTHWARD IN THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
FROM THURSDAY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA REGION. THE
ECMWF/GFS MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NORTH PACIFIC
STORM FORCE LOW APPROACHING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER AND PUSHES THE LOW
FARTHER EAST. BY THURSDAY EVENING THE WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS NEAR
SHEMYA BRINGING STRONG GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND RAIN SPILLING OVER INTO THE WESTERN BERING
SEA. THIS LOW WILL TRACK OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WITH THE
WEATHER FRONT MOVING EASTWARD NEAR PRIBILOF ISLANDS EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH DUTCH HARBOR BY SATURDAY BEFORE THE FRONT FALLS
APART BY SUNDAY OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THE SECOND NORTH
PACIFIC STORM FORCE LOW WILL APPROACH JUST SOUTH OF SHEMYA BY
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE TRACKING WESTWARD. THIS WILL BRING A LARGE
SWATH OF GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN THROUGH THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN BERING SEA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH CONTINUE OFFSHORE FLOW RESULTING
IN DRIER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO COOL THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING...101
MARINE...STORM WARNING...130 131 177 178
         GALE WARNING...119 120 125 139 150 173 174 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MTL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MMC
LONG TERM...PLD