Gale Warning 873, NWS Anchorage, AK

817 
FZAK52 PAFC 312351
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
251 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-011315-
251 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHERN TO EASTERN BERING SEA THU. 
A 984 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL INTENSIFY TO 963 MB
AS IT TRACKS TO JUST EAST OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA FRI
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING SEA THU NIGHT AND FRI.

$$

PKZ150-011315-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
251 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ155-011315-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
251 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT EXCEPT W 15 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ160-011315-
BRISTOL BAY-
251 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-011315-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
251 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E.
SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT EXCEPT S 15 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ170-011315-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
251 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ171-011315-
UNALASKA BAY-
251 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-011315-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
251 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ173-011315-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
251 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ174-011315-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
251 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ175-011315-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
251 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 11
FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ176-011315-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
251 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ177-011315-
ADAK TO KISKA-
251 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT BERING SIDE... 22 FT PACIFIC
SIDE.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ178-011315-
KISKA TO ATTU-
251 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19
FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ179-011315-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
251 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ180-011315-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
251 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-011315-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
251 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ185-011315-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
251 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 20 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
425 PM AKST TUE DEC 30 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS UNDERGOING SOME CHANGE AS THE HIGH
CENTER MOVES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE LOWER 48 AND
UPPER TROUGHING MOVES TOWARD THE WEST COAST OF AK. THERE HAS BEEN
STEADY RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL
AREAS...AND SOUTHWEST MAINLAND TODAY. RAIN AND SNOW/SNOW PELLET
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SEEN OVER INLAND AREAS WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW FREEZING BUT THERE WAS A THIN LAYER ABOVE
FREEZING THAT THE SNOW FELL THROUGH.

THE SURFACE LOW IS STEADILY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA...AND THE FRONT OVER THE GULF IS APPROACHING THE ALASKA
COAST. WINDS HAVE DECREASED SOMEWHAT THROUGH TURNAGAIN
ARM...ENOUGH TO BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE HIGH WIND WARNING THAT WAS
IN EFFECT.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
DISCREPANCIES OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AFTER 60 HOURS. TO ADDRESS
THESE DIFFERENCES...A BLEND OF THE NAM AND ECMWF WERE USED.
OTHERWISE...THE NAM HAS BEEN USED TO MAKE THE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
THAT WERE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND
SNOW SHOWERS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND INLAND ZONES TONIGHT...WITH
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY.
CHANNELED FLOW WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TONIGHT. ON WED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER...BEFORE CLEARING BEGINS WED NIGHT
INTO THU AS COLDER TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY)...

THE WEAKENING LOW APPROACHING NORTON SOUND WILL BRING A FINAL
ROUND OF RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THIS EVENING BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT AS COLD AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO
THE AREA. GUSTY SOUTH TO EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE ALASKA AND
ALEUTIAN RANGES WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT WEAKENS. AFTERWARDS...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FEW REMAINING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...MOST OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY)...

MOST OF THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STORM FORCE LOW CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD STORM FORCE WINDS INTO THE WESTERN
BERING AND ALEUTIANS BY LATE TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING TO GALE
FORCE AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL BERING FOR WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF
THIS LOW...WEAK RIDGING WILL BRING PARTIAL CLEARING AND LIGHT
WINDS FROM THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOF ISLANDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN/SNOW WILL THEN MOVE
INTO THE AREA FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

AS UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS OVER NORTHERN ALASKA A WEAK TROUGH WILL
PERSIST OVER SOUTHCENTRAL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...CENTERED
NEAR THE SPINE OF THE CHUGACH RANGE. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF
SOUTHCENTRAL FROM ANCHORAGE EAST IN CLOUDS...WITH WEAK UPSLOPE
SNOW IMPACTING THE SOUTHWESTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN AND THE HIGH
SLOPES OF THE CHUGACH RANGE.

AN ACCOMPANYING RESIDUAL SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GAP
WILL HELP INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST. NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TERRAIN
GAPS EXTENDING OUT THROUGH THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS A RESULT. DUE TO PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER AND MEAGER WARM ADVECTION ALOFT THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. THUS WE DO NOT EXPECT A
MAJOR HIGH WIND EVENT FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

AS THE HIGH/LOW PRESSURE COUPLET THAT PRODUCES THE OUTFLOW WINDS
MOVES SOUTH AND EAST DOWN THE COAST OF THE
PANHANDLE INTO THE WEEKEND...SOUTHCENTRAL WILL EXPERIENCE A MUCH
QUIETER WEATHER REGIME WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS APPROACHING NORMAL AND HIGHS NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. AS OF RIGHT NOW...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THE
STREAK OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR ABOVE ZERO DEGREES FOR ANCHORAGE
IS IN JEOPARDY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

FURTHER WEST...

A STRONG GALE-FORCE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH AND EAST...WEAKENING OVER TIME AS IT ENCOUNTERS RESISTANCE
FROM STOUT HIGH PRESSURE TOWARD THE WESTERN ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING SUNDAY OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING. ANOTHER LOW MOVES JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND STALLS...BUT
PUSHES A WEST-EAST FRONT GRADUALLY NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BERING TO THE SOUTH OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING OVER THE
BERING STRAIT REGION.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 119 177 178.
         GALE WARNING 125 130 150 173 174 175 176 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MBS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...CC