Gale Warning 796, NWS Anchorage, AK

770 
FZAK61 PAFC 312346
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
246 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-011400-
246 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL DEEPEN TO 
1000 MB AS IT MOVES TO 55N 146W WED NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL 
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TO 988 MB NEAR 57N 139W THU AFTERNOON
BEFORE TRACKING INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-011400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
246 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND UP TO 10 KT EARLY INCREASING TO N 20 TO
35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ352-011400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
246 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING N 25 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
425 PM AKST TUE DEC 30 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS UNDERGOING SOME CHANGE AS THE HIGH
CENTER MOVES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE LOWER 48 AND
UPPER TROUGHING MOVES TOWARD THE WEST COAST OF AK. THERE HAS BEEN
STEADY RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL
AREAS...AND SOUTHWEST MAINLAND TODAY. RAIN AND SNOW/SNOW PELLET
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SEEN OVER INLAND AREAS WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW FREEZING BUT THERE WAS A THIN LAYER ABOVE
FREEZING THAT THE SNOW FELL THROUGH.

THE SURFACE LOW IS STEADILY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA...AND THE FRONT OVER THE GULF IS APPROACHING THE ALASKA
COAST. WINDS HAVE DECREASED SOMEWHAT THROUGH TURNAGAIN
ARM...ENOUGH TO BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE HIGH WIND WARNING THAT WAS
IN EFFECT.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
DISCREPANCIES OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AFTER 60 HOURS. TO ADDRESS
THESE DIFFERENCES...A BLEND OF THE NAM AND ECMWF WERE USED.
OTHERWISE...THE NAM HAS BEEN USED TO MAKE THE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
THAT WERE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND
SNOW SHOWERS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND INLAND ZONES TONIGHT...WITH
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY.
CHANNELED FLOW WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TONIGHT. ON WED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER...BEFORE CLEARING BEGINS WED NIGHT
INTO THU AS COLDER TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY)...

THE WEAKENING LOW APPROACHING NORTON SOUND WILL BRING A FINAL
ROUND OF RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THIS EVENING BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT AS COLD AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO
THE AREA. GUSTY SOUTH TO EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE ALASKA AND
ALEUTIAN RANGES WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT WEAKENS. AFTERWARDS...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FEW REMAINING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...MOST OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY)...

MOST OF THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STORM FORCE LOW CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD STORM FORCE WINDS INTO THE WESTERN
BERING AND ALEUTIANS BY LATE TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING TO GALE
FORCE AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL BERING FOR WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF
THIS LOW...WEAK RIDGING WILL BRING PARTIAL CLEARING AND LIGHT
WINDS FROM THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOF ISLANDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN/SNOW WILL THEN MOVE
INTO THE AREA FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

AS UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS OVER NORTHERN ALASKA A WEAK TROUGH WILL
PERSIST OVER SOUTHCENTRAL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...CENTERED
NEAR THE SPINE OF THE CHUGACH RANGE. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF
SOUTHCENTRAL FROM ANCHORAGE EAST IN CLOUDS...WITH WEAK UPSLOPE
SNOW IMPACTING THE SOUTHWESTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN AND THE HIGH
SLOPES OF THE CHUGACH RANGE.

AN ACCOMPANYING RESIDUAL SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GAP
WILL HELP INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST. NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TERRAIN
GAPS EXTENDING OUT THROUGH THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS A RESULT. DUE TO PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER AND MEAGER WARM ADVECTION ALOFT THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. THUS WE DO NOT EXPECT A
MAJOR HIGH WIND EVENT FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

AS THE HIGH/LOW PRESSURE COUPLET THAT PRODUCES THE OUTFLOW WINDS
MOVES SOUTH AND EAST DOWN THE COAST OF THE
PANHANDLE INTO THE WEEKEND...SOUTHCENTRAL WILL EXPERIENCE A MUCH
QUIETER WEATHER REGIME WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS APPROACHING NORMAL AND HIGHS NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. AS OF RIGHT NOW...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THE
STREAK OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR ABOVE ZERO DEGREES FOR ANCHORAGE
IS IN JEOPARDY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

FURTHER WEST...

A STRONG GALE-FORCE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH AND EAST...WEAKENING OVER TIME AS IT ENCOUNTERS RESISTANCE
FROM STOUT HIGH PRESSURE TOWARD THE WESTERN ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING SUNDAY OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING. ANOTHER LOW MOVES JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND STALLS...BUT
PUSHES A WEST-EAST FRONT GRADUALLY NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BERING TO THE SOUTH OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING OVER THE
BERING STRAIT REGION.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 119 177 178.
         GALE WARNING 125 130 150 173 174 175 176 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MBS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...CC