Gale Warning 874, NWS Anchorage, AK

163 
FZAK51 PAFC 312346
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
246 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-011315-
246 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL DEEPEN TO 
1000 MB AS IT MOVES TO 260 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WED
NIGHT...THEN TO 988 MB AS IT MOVES TO 120 NM WEST OF SITKA 
THU AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL TRACK INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA
THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-011315-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
246 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ120-011315-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
246 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT EARLY BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ121-011315-
RESURRECTION BAY-
246 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHER SEAS S
OF CAINES HEAD. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 6
FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-011315-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
246 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 2
FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
7 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-011315-
PORT VALDEZ-
246 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 6
FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ127-011315-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
246 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-011315-
VALDEZ ARM-
246 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-011315-
PASSAGE CANAL-
246 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR
WHITTIER. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT MAINLY IN THE EVENING
NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-011315-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
246 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT EARLY BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR KAMISHAK BAY.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT TOWARD MORNING.
SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR KAMISHAK BAY.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-011315-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
246 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT EARLY BECOMING NW 25 KT TOWARD MORNING.
SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT TOWARD MORNING.
SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-011315-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
246 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT EARLY BECOMING NW 25 KT TOWARD MORNING.
SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ136-011315-
CHINIAK BAY-
246 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT TOWARD
MORNING. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-011315-
MARMOT BAY-
246 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-011315-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
246 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15
KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-011315-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
246 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT EARLY BECOMING N 15 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-011315-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
246 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT EARLY BECOMING N 15 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-011315-
KACHEMAK BAY-
246 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT EARLY BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
425 PM AKST TUE DEC 30 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS UNDERGOING SOME CHANGE AS THE HIGH
CENTER MOVES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE LOWER 48 AND
UPPER TROUGHING MOVES TOWARD THE WEST COAST OF AK. THERE HAS BEEN
STEADY RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL
AREAS...AND SOUTHWEST MAINLAND TODAY. RAIN AND SNOW/SNOW PELLET
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SEEN OVER INLAND AREAS WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW FREEZING BUT THERE WAS A THIN LAYER ABOVE
FREEZING THAT THE SNOW FELL THROUGH.

THE SURFACE LOW IS STEADILY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA...AND THE FRONT OVER THE GULF IS APPROACHING THE ALASKA
COAST. WINDS HAVE DECREASED SOMEWHAT THROUGH TURNAGAIN
ARM...ENOUGH TO BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE HIGH WIND WARNING THAT WAS
IN EFFECT.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
DISCREPANCIES OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AFTER 60 HOURS. TO ADDRESS
THESE DIFFERENCES...A BLEND OF THE NAM AND ECMWF WERE USED.
OTHERWISE...THE NAM HAS BEEN USED TO MAKE THE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
THAT WERE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND
SNOW SHOWERS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND INLAND ZONES TONIGHT...WITH
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY.
CHANNELED FLOW WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TONIGHT. ON WED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER...BEFORE CLEARING BEGINS WED NIGHT
INTO THU AS COLDER TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY)...

THE WEAKENING LOW APPROACHING NORTON SOUND WILL BRING A FINAL
ROUND OF RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THIS EVENING BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT AS COLD AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO
THE AREA. GUSTY SOUTH TO EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE ALASKA AND
ALEUTIAN RANGES WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT WEAKENS. AFTERWARDS...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FEW REMAINING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...MOST OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY)...

MOST OF THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STORM FORCE LOW CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD STORM FORCE WINDS INTO THE WESTERN
BERING AND ALEUTIANS BY LATE TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING TO GALE
FORCE AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL BERING FOR WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF
THIS LOW...WEAK RIDGING WILL BRING PARTIAL CLEARING AND LIGHT
WINDS FROM THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOF ISLANDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN/SNOW WILL THEN MOVE
INTO THE AREA FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

AS UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS OVER NORTHERN ALASKA A WEAK TROUGH WILL
PERSIST OVER SOUTHCENTRAL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...CENTERED
NEAR THE SPINE OF THE CHUGACH RANGE. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF
SOUTHCENTRAL FROM ANCHORAGE EAST IN CLOUDS...WITH WEAK UPSLOPE
SNOW IMPACTING THE SOUTHWESTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN AND THE HIGH
SLOPES OF THE CHUGACH RANGE.

AN ACCOMPANYING RESIDUAL SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GAP
WILL HELP INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST. NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TERRAIN
GAPS EXTENDING OUT THROUGH THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS A RESULT. DUE TO PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER AND MEAGER WARM ADVECTION ALOFT THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. THUS WE DO NOT EXPECT A
MAJOR HIGH WIND EVENT FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

AS THE HIGH/LOW PRESSURE COUPLET THAT PRODUCES THE OUTFLOW WINDS
MOVES SOUTH AND EAST DOWN THE COAST OF THE
PANHANDLE INTO THE WEEKEND...SOUTHCENTRAL WILL EXPERIENCE A MUCH
QUIETER WEATHER REGIME WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS APPROACHING NORMAL AND HIGHS NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. AS OF RIGHT NOW...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THE
STREAK OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR ABOVE ZERO DEGREES FOR ANCHORAGE
IS IN JEOPARDY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

FURTHER WEST...

A STRONG GALE-FORCE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH AND EAST...WEAKENING OVER TIME AS IT ENCOUNTERS RESISTANCE
FROM STOUT HIGH PRESSURE TOWARD THE WESTERN ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING SUNDAY OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING. ANOTHER LOW MOVES JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND STALLS...BUT
PUSHES A WEST-EAST FRONT GRADUALLY NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BERING TO THE SOUTH OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING OVER THE
BERING STRAIT REGION.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 119 177 178.
         GALE WARNING 125 130 150 173 174 175 176 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MBS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...CC