Storm Warning 144, NWS Anchorage, AK

533 
FZAK61 PAFC 070011
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
311 PM AKST SAT DEC 6 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-071400-
311 PM AKST SAT DEC 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 965 MB LOW AT 54N 149W LATE TONIGHT WILL MOVE TO 56N 158W 
SUN AFTERNOON THEN INTO THE BERING SEA SUN NIGHT. A 963 MB 
LOW AT 55N 149W LATE SUN NIGHT WILL MOVE TO 57N 157W MON
AFTERNOON. A 971 MN LOW WILL BE NEAR 57N 144W MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-071400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
311 PM AKST SAT DEC 6 2014

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 TO 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 15 TO 20 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 35 TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 TO 24 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 20 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ352-071400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
311 PM AKST SAT DEC 6 2014

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT INCREASING TO 40 TO 55 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 40 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 23 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

194 
FZAK61 PAFC 071223
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
323 AM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-080215-
323 AM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 965 MB LOW AT 54N 149W WILL MOVE TO 56N 156W THIS AFTERNOON
THEN INTO THE BERING SEA TONIGHT. A 963 MB LOW AT 55N 148W EARLY
MON MORNING WILL MOVE TO 56N 158W LATE MON NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ351-080215-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
323 AM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS SEAS BUILDING 16 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ352-080215-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
323 AM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING 15 TO 20 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING SE 10 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 16 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.TUE...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

920 
FZAK61 PAFC 071624
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
724 AM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-080415-
724 AM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 965 MB LOW AT 54N 149W WILL MOVE TO 56N 156W THIS AFTERNOON
THEN INTO THE BERING SEA TONIGHT. A 963 MB LOW AT 55N 148W EARLY
MON MORNING WILL MOVE TO 56N 158W LATE MON NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ351-080415-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
724 AM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS SEAS BUILDING TO 16 TO 24 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 TO 19 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ352-080415-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
724 AM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 18 TO 26 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING SE 10 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 TO 20 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

449 
FZAK61 PAFC 080002
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
302 PM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-081515-
302 PM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 962 MB LOW NEAR 56N 158W WILL MOVE TO 54N 168W AT 962 MB MON
AFTERNOON. A 960 MB LOW NEAR 53N 148W SUN NIGHT WILL MOVE TO 57N
160W AT 967 MB TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-081515-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
302 PM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.TUE...S WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ352-081515-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
302 PM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
441 PM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
BERING...THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS...AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. WITHIN THIS TROUGH THERE IS A SMALL UPPER LOW
CENTERED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WITH A FRONT
STRETCHING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THERE IS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PANHANDLE THAT IS NUDGING INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA MAINLAND. THERE IS A DEEP AND FAST MOVING (TOWARDS
THE EAST) LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTAINS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS (ECMWF/GFS/NH GEM) ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...WHILE THE HI-RES MODELS (NAM/REGIONAL GEM) DIFFER FROM
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND EACH OTHER...ESPECIALLY WITH A LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE GULF LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THEREFORE THE GLOBAL
MODELS WERE PREFERRED FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE SPEED/STRENGTH OF
THE GULF LOW AND THE FACT THAT THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE
FORECASTS...WHERE EVEN SMALL DIFFERENCES WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
THE GULF COAST THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL BECOME SNOW ALONG HIGHER
ELEVATION AREAS SUCH AS TURNAGAIN PASS AND THOMPSON PASS. THIS
SAME SYSTEM WILL BRING A BRIEF ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL TOMORROW AFTERNOON...INCLUDING THE ANCHORAGE AREA...THOUGH
ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED TO ABOUT AN INCH WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.

THE NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE QUICKLY MOVES IN WITH A LOW
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN GULF LATE TOMORROW NIGHT...BRINGING AT
LEAST GALE FORCE WINDS AND RAIN TO MUCH OF THE GULF WATERS INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF TO
THE AKPEN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
GULF TO QUICKLY DIMINISH BY SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE
THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BRIEFLY BRING STORM FORCE WINDS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING (ESPECIALLY FROM SHELIKOF STRAIT
INTO SOUTHERN COOK INLET) BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW TRACK WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST TO GALES FOR NOW. GUSTY GAP WINDS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP FROM THE MATANUSKA VALLEY INTO COOK INLET...AS WELL AS
THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A SHOWERY PATTERN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE BRISTOL BAY REGION...WITH A DRIER LOW LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW KEEPING THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY DRY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A MORE VIGOROUS FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ELSEWHERE. STRONG NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

SHOWERY PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION AS WEAK DISTURBANCES
TRACK THROUGH THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS. A STRONGER LOW OVER
THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN. A STRONG
LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS
SUNDAY...WITH RAIN AND INCREASING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY)...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE A WHOLE LOT THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE CLOSED HIGH OVER THE
CHUKCHI SEA REFUSES TO BREAK DOWN AND THIS IS KEEPING A LOT OF
COLD AIR BOTTLED UP OVER THE ARCTIC. MEANWHILE...AN ALMOST EQUALLY
STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. FURTHER WEST...THE PATTERN REMAINS
SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE AS THE 180KT NORTH PACIFIC JET CLIPS
THAT AREA. THE NET EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE CONTINUED MILD
AND WET CONDITIONS NEAR AND ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW. ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW COLDER SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL WRAP NORTH
TO SOUTH WITH INTERMITTENT GALES ACROSS THE BERING.

A FEW INTERESTING NOTES FOR NEXT WEEK. ONE...IT DOES LOOK LIKE
THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FAIRLY STRONG LOW COMING OFF THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA NEXT WEEKEND (DEC 13-14). THIS LOW DOES SHOW SOME SIGNS
OF POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO BE CENTER OVER THE
BERING RATHER THAN THE GULF OF AK. THIS COULD BRING SOME MORE
ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL
PORTION OF THE STATE. NUMBER TWO...ANCHORAGE IS APPROACHING AN
ALL-TIME RECORD FOR LATEST DATE OF THE FIRST OCCURRENCE OF A
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE PREVIOUS RECORD
APPEARS TO BE 15 DEC 2002. UNTIL WE SEE A BIG PATTERN
CHANGE...THIS RECORD REMAINS IN JEOPARDY.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 120 130 131 132 136 137 138 139 176 177 178 185
351 352 411 NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...MO