Gale Warning 769, NWS Anchorage, AK

269 
FZAK62 PAFC 070009
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
309 PM AKST SAT DEC 6 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-071500-
309 PM AKST SAT DEC 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST BERING SEA THROUGH MON
AFTERNOON. A 963 MB LOW AT 56N 158W SUN AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 
55N 171W MON AFTERNOON AT 967 MB. A 963 MB LOW WILL BE NEAR 
57N 157W MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-071500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
309 PM AKST SAT DEC 6 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ412-071500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
309 PM AKST SAT DEC 6 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ413-071500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
309 PM AKST SAT DEC 6 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ414-071500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
309 PM AKST SAT DEC 6 2014

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

801 
FZAK62 PAFC 071225
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
325 AM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-080215-
325 AM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST BERING SEA THROUGH LATE MON
NIGHT. A 960 MB LOW AT 56N 159W THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 53N
167W LATE MON NIGHT AT 964 MB. A 965 MB LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE
WESTERN GULF TO 56N 157W LATE MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-080215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
325 AM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ412-080215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
325 AM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ413-080215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
325 AM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ414-080215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
325 AM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.

$$

388 
FZAK62 PAFC 080001
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
301 PM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-081545-
301 PM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 962 MB LOW NEAR 56N 158W WILL MOVE TO 54N 168W AT 962 MB MON
AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE TO 51N 166W TUE AFTERNOON AT 970 MB. A 960 MB
LOW NEAR 56N 154W MON EVENING WILL MOVE TO 57N 160W AT 967 MB TUE
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-081545-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
301 PM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ412-081545-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
301 PM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ413-081545-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
301 PM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-081545-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
301 PM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.MON...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.

$$

350 
FZAK62 PAFC 081214
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
314 AM AKST MON DEC 8 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-090145-
314 AM AKST MON DEC 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 964 MB LOW NEAR 56N 162W WILL MOVE TO 54N 168W BEFORE
DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON. A GULF LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 959 MB NEAR
56N 156W THIS EVENING...THE LOW WILL THEN WILL MOVE TO 56N 161W AT
965 MB TUE AFTERNOON WHERE IT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY AS IT WEAKENS
TO 972 MB THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-090145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
314 AM AKST MON DEC 8 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ412-090145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
314 AM AKST MON DEC 8 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ413-090145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
314 AM AKST MON DEC 8 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-090145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
314 AM AKST MON DEC 8 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
441 PM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
BERING...THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS...AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. WITHIN THIS TROUGH THERE IS A SMALL UPPER LOW
CENTERED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WITH A FRONT
STRETCHING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THERE IS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PANHANDLE THAT IS NUDGING INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA MAINLAND. THERE IS A DEEP AND FAST MOVING (TOWARDS
THE EAST) LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTAINS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS (ECMWF/GFS/NH GEM) ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...WHILE THE HI-RES MODELS (NAM/REGIONAL GEM) DIFFER FROM
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND EACH OTHER...ESPECIALLY WITH A LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE GULF LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THEREFORE THE GLOBAL
MODELS WERE PREFERRED FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE SPEED/STRENGTH OF
THE GULF LOW AND THE FACT THAT THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE
FORECASTS...WHERE EVEN SMALL DIFFERENCES WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
THE GULF COAST THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL BECOME SNOW ALONG HIGHER
ELEVATION AREAS SUCH AS TURNAGAIN PASS AND THOMPSON PASS. THIS
SAME SYSTEM WILL BRING A BRIEF ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL TOMORROW AFTERNOON...INCLUDING THE ANCHORAGE AREA...THOUGH
ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED TO ABOUT AN INCH WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.

THE NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE QUICKLY MOVES IN WITH A LOW
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN GULF LATE TOMORROW NIGHT...BRINGING AT
LEAST GALE FORCE WINDS AND RAIN TO MUCH OF THE GULF WATERS INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF TO
THE AKPEN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
GULF TO QUICKLY DIMINISH BY SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE
THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BRIEFLY BRING STORM FORCE WINDS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING (ESPECIALLY FROM SHELIKOF STRAIT
INTO SOUTHERN COOK INLET) BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW TRACK WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST TO GALES FOR NOW. GUSTY GAP WINDS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP FROM THE MATANUSKA VALLEY INTO COOK INLET...AS WELL AS
THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A SHOWERY PATTERN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE BRISTOL BAY REGION...WITH A DRIER LOW LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW KEEPING THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY DRY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A MORE VIGOROUS FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ELSEWHERE. STRONG NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

SHOWERY PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION AS WEAK DISTURBANCES
TRACK THROUGH THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS. A STRONGER LOW OVER
THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN. A STRONG
LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS
SUNDAY...WITH RAIN AND INCREASING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY)...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE A WHOLE LOT THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE CLOSED HIGH OVER THE
CHUKCHI SEA REFUSES TO BREAK DOWN AND THIS IS KEEPING A LOT OF
COLD AIR BOTTLED UP OVER THE ARCTIC. MEANWHILE...AN ALMOST EQUALLY
STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. FURTHER WEST...THE PATTERN REMAINS
SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE AS THE 180KT NORTH PACIFIC JET CLIPS
THAT AREA. THE NET EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE CONTINUED MILD
AND WET CONDITIONS NEAR AND ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW. ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW COLDER SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL WRAP NORTH
TO SOUTH WITH INTERMITTENT GALES ACROSS THE BERING.

A FEW INTERESTING NOTES FOR NEXT WEEK. ONE...IT DOES LOOK LIKE
THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FAIRLY STRONG LOW COMING OFF THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA NEXT WEEKEND (DEC 13-14). THIS LOW DOES SHOW SOME SIGNS
OF POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO BE CENTER OVER THE
BERING RATHER THAN THE GULF OF AK. THIS COULD BRING SOME MORE
ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL
PORTION OF THE STATE. NUMBER TWO...ANCHORAGE IS APPROACHING AN
ALL-TIME RECORD FOR LATEST DATE OF THE FIRST OCCURRENCE OF A
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE PREVIOUS RECORD
APPEARS TO BE 15 DEC 2002. UNTIL WE SEE A BIG PATTERN
CHANGE...THIS RECORD REMAINS IN JEOPARDY.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 120 130 131 132 136 137 138 139 176 177 178 185
351 352 411 NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...MO