Gale Warning 768, NWS Anchorage, AK

969 
FZAK61 PAFC 061225
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
325 AM AKST SAT DEC 6 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-070215-
325 AM AKST SAT DEC 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL PUSH INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A 970 MB LOW AT 52N 147W THIS EVENING WILL
MOVE TO 55N 158W SUN AFTERNOON AND DEEPEN TO 960 MB. THIS LOW
WILL THEN CONTINUE WESTWARD WHILE WEAKENING. A 960 MB NORTHEAST
PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH 54N 151W LATE SUN NIGHT. 


$$

PKZ351-070215-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
325 AM AKST SAT DEC 6 2014

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT BECOMING E 40 TO 55 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT BUILDING TO 15 TO 22 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 35 TO 50 KT BECOMING SE 20 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ352-070215-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
325 AM AKST SAT DEC 6 2014

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT INCREASING TO 40 TO 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 16 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 TO 25 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
527 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO PERSIST FROM THE EASTERN
GULF NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL AND INTO THE INTERIOR OF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA...WITH UPPER LEVEL LOWS ROTATING ABOUT EACH OTHER
FROM THE BRISTOL BAY REGION SOUTH AND WEST OUT THROUGH THE BERING
AND WELL SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC. MEANWHILE...A RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA IS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS COASTAL WATERS.

THE MAIN STORM TRACK CONTINUES TO PERSIST BETWEEN THE TROUGHINESS
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AND THE STOUT RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
SEVERAL FRONTS CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING FROM THE
MID-LATITUDES OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE
WESTERN GULF...KODIAK ISLAND...SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AND THEN
DISSIPATING OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BERING.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

OUT WEST...MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING LOW SOUTH OF KAMCHATKA. THIS LOW WILL REACH PEAK
STRENGTH LATER THIS MORNING WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS...AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES JUST
SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS OF THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS...BUT WITH THE LOW
WEAKENING THESE WILL DIMINISH TO GALES AS THE LOW MOVES EAST.

BACK EAST...MODELS ARE HAVING A MORE DIFFICULT TIME WITH TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THE FAST-MOVING WEATHER FRONTS IN THE FAST
SOUTHEAST-TO-NORTHWEST STORM TRACK. WITH THE STRONGER
(POTENTIALLY MORE IMPACTFUL) OF THESE FRONTS THE 00 UTC
EUROPEAN...NOW FOLLOWED BY THE 06 UTC GFS...SUGGEST BETTER
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A CLOSED OFF LOW ALONG A FRONT THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE GULF SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS IT MOVES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST GULF ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO
THE BRISTOL BAY AND SOUTHEASTERN BERING REGIONS.

THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THE LOW AS DEPICTED BY THE 00 UTC EUROPEAN AND
THE 06 UTC GFS WOULD BE A LARGE BUT CONCENTRATED AREA OF STORM-
FORCE WINDS NEAR THE LOW...AS WELL AS A POTENTIAL STORM-FORCE
BARRIER JET ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND BARREN ISLANDS REGION.

SINCE MODEL RUNS ARE JUST SEEMINGLY CATCHING ON THIS
SOLUTION...WILL GIVE IT ANOTHER SHIFT TO DECIDE TO LEAN IN THAT
DIRECTION. FOR THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE WE WILL KEEP WITH A WEAKER
FRONT BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE OUT FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT
TODAY WITH THE STRONGER LOW SOLUTION.

WITH THE 06 UTC GFS JUMPING TOWARD THE 00 UTC
EUROPEAN (WHICH WAS WIDELY CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER INITIALLY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS SHIFT) CONFIDENCE IS POOR TO MODERATE AT THIS
POINT IN TIME...EXCEPT OUT TOWARD THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS WHERE MODEL CONFIDENCE IS GREATER. THE FORECAST HEAVILY
THE INHERITED AND 00 UTC GFS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE MAIN IMPACTS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
PERSISTENT RAINFALL OVER THE WESTERN GULF INCLUDING THE KODIAK
ISLAND AND KACHEMAK BAY AREAS...BUT ATTENTION FOR THE WEEKEND WILL
BE CENTERED UPON THE IMPACTS WITH THE POTENTIALLY STRONG LOW
MOVING NORTHWEST ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
BERING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW
MAKES IT AS WELL AS ITS STRENGTH WILL DETERMINE THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION AND WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR COASTAL AS WELL AS
INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE NEWER MODEL SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS AND EUROPEAN
STRENGTHENING DOWN-INLET AND GAP WINDS COULD IMPACT THE COOK INLET
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (OR MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT) AND THE
POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF STORM WARNING MARINE PRODUCTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE IF MODELS BEGIN CONVERGING ON THE STRONGER LOW SOLUTION
THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM WILL HAVE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TODAY AND
THEN BE DRY AND COLDER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN
RANGE INTO THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE TODAY...AND THEN MIX WITH SNOW
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. AS
THIS MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE COLDER KUSKOKWIM DELTA...SNOW
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE REMAINS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN TODAY AS SOME RAIN MAY FALL INTO
THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL TAKE
SHAPE SUNDAY MORNING...WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES IMPACTING PARTS
OF THE THE GULF COAST AND ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH MID WEEK. THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL BRING SURGES OF PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS TO
THE SOUTHCENTRAL COASTLINE AND ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING/TRACK OF THESE DISTURBANCES...AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES AND THE COMPLEX
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. AS OF THE MOST RECENT MODEL
RUNS...THEY SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION REGARDING THE
INITIAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND INTO THE
ALASKA PENINSULA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND THE NEXT WAVE MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF MONDAY. HOWEVER AS TIME PROGRESSES DEEPER
INTO THE LONG TERM FORECAST...THE MODELS DIVERGE AND CREATE MUCH
MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY ON. MODELS DO
HOWEVER AGREE ON AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PARKED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF COASTLINE SUNDAY...AND EXTENDING WESTWARD THROUGH THE MAT-SU
VALLEY AND INTO THE YUKON DELTA. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE...THE
GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND WILL TIGHTEN UP. THIS WILL LEAD TO GUSTY GAP WINDS
THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AND CHANNELED TERRAIN ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND ALASKA RANGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF THESE WINDS ARE ALSO DEPENDENT ON WHICH MODEL
SOLUTION VERIFIES...LEAVING SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST UNTIL
MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES.

FURTHER WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL OMEGA BLOCK LOCATED OVER SIBERIA
WILL ACT TO ENHANCE THE NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL BERING/ALEUTIANS BY MONDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL FILTER IN
COLDER AIR OVER THE WARMER BERING SEA WATERS...BRINGING GUSTY
WINDS AND INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 119 120 130 138 175 176 177 185
         STORMS 178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...TP