Storm Warning 130, NWS Anchorage, AK

372 
FZAK51 PAFC 071238
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
338 AM AKST FRI NOV 7 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-080145-
338 AM AKST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 979 MB LOW 250 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY WILL MOVE TO NEAR KODIAK
CITY FRI NIGHT AT 993 MB THEN DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES NORTH. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE GULF SAT EVENING.

$$

PKZ119-080145-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
338 AM AKST FRI NOV 7 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT BY MID MORNING. NEAR
THE COAST...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ120-080145-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
338 AM AKST FRI NOV 7 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 25 KT BY MID MORNING. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ121-080145-
RESURRECTION BAY-
338 AM AKST FRI NOV 7 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-080145-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
338 AM AKST FRI NOV 7 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ126-080145-
PORT VALDEZ-
338 AM AKST FRI NOV 7 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-080145-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
338 AM AKST FRI NOV 7 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN .
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-080145-
VALDEZ ARM-
338 AM AKST FRI NOV 7 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-080145-
PASSAGE CANAL-
338 AM AKST FRI NOV 7 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-080145-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
338 AM AKST FRI NOV 7 2014

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT BY MID MORNING. SEAS
14 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-080145-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
338 AM AKST FRI NOV 7 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT DURING THE EARLY MORNING. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ132-080145-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
338 AM AKST FRI NOV 7 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT EXCEPT SE 25 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ136-080145-
CHINIAK BAY-
338 AM AKST FRI NOV 7 2014

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-080145-
MARMOT BAY-
338 AM AKST FRI NOV 7 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ138-080145-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
338 AM AKST FRI NOV 7 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-080145-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
338 AM AKST FRI NOV 7 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-080145-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
338 AM AKST FRI NOV 7 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ141-080145-
KACHEMAK BAY-
338 AM AKST FRI NOV 7 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
521 AM AKST THU NOV 6 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW STRETCHES DOWN FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA
INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC AND THIS LOW IS BRINGING A FRONT TOWARDS
THE SOUTHERN GULF FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. FURTHER WEST RIDGING IS
MOVING IN OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES...NORTHERLY FLOW DOMINATES MUCH OF THE BERING. OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE HIGH PRESSURE SITS KEEPING MOST OF THE
ACTIVE WEATHER FOR MAINLAND ALASKA ALONG THE GULF COAST.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND ONLY HAVE MINOR DISCREPANCIES AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WESTERN GULF WITH POSITIONING. THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING
TOWARDS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON FRIDAY HAS A FEW MORE
DIFFERENCES. THE NAM...GFS AND GEM HAVE BEEN FURTHER NORTH THAN
THE EC WHICH IS MOVES TO THE EAST JUST NORTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.
HOWEVER...THEIR POSITIONS AND SPEEDS HAVE VARIED MORE THAN THE EC
AND THE EC HAS BEEN QUICKER IN MAKING CORRECTIONS TO THE LOWS
PATH. THIS HAS LED TO THE EC BEING THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SOUTHEAST FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT IS APPROACHING THE
GULF WILL BRING SOME LIGHTER RAIN AND SNOW TO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THEN THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE GULF AND CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST A BARRIER JET WILL
SETUP ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BRINGING MUCH STRONGER
EASTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA. THESE WINDS WILL LAST INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WHEN THEY WILL DIMINISH. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO THE GULF COAST TONIGHT WITH PRIMARILY
RAIN ALONG THE COAST THAT WILL MIX WITH SNOW AS IT GETS FURTHER
INLAND. HOWEVER...ONLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT THROUGH
THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL LAST INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY RAIN AND SNOW WILL STAY ON THE
PACIFIC SIDE OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA KEEPING MOST OF THE SOUTHWEST
DRY. THEN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH
WILL BRING SNOW TO PLACES ALL AROUND BRISTOL BAY...BUT LEAVE THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY LARGELY DRY. THE
PRECIPITATION FOR THE BRISTOL BAY AREA WILL LIGHTEN UP LATER ON
FRIDAY BUT IT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 3)...
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE BERING IS BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE PACIFIC
SIDE OF THE ALEUTIANS WHICH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN
A RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST PUSHING THE PRECIPITATION OFF TO
THE EAST. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC BRINGING RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS FIRST TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN BERING. FROM
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LOW ITSELF MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN BERING...WIND GUSTS INTO THE 80 MPH RANGE ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN BERING. THEN THE
STORM WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST WHILE WEAKENING...HOWEVER STORM FORCE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
AND BERING.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH THE
EXTRATROPICAL LOW TRACK THROUGH THE BERING THIS WEEKEND...BUT
OTHERWISE THERE REMAINS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SIGNIFICANT
AND INTENSE SYSTEM INTO SUNDAY. AS THIS LOW ENTERS THE CENTRAL
BERING...EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW WILL SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY
BY LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS IT INTERACTS
WITH STRONG RIDGING STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN GULF TO THE ALCAN
BORDER...KEEPING THE STRONGEST WINDS CONFINED TO THE BERING SEA
REGION AND SOUTHWEST COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST GALE FORCE
WITH 20 TO 30 FOOT SEAS TO THE WEST OF THE PRIBILOFS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHEN THE LOW TRACKS NORTHWARD AND WEAKENS OVER EASTERN
SIBERIA. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WTIH RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE
SOUTHWEST COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
RAIN MAINLY TO THE GULF COAST FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL
LOOK TO REMAIN LIMITED TO OCCASIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH
STRONG DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK LOW SKIRTING KODIAK ISLAND
DISSIPATES NEAR SOUTHERN COOK INLET.

AFTER THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
THERE IS REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT THAT RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN
GULF WILL SPREAD INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY AND THE EASTERN INTERIOR
WHILE A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
BERING. THIS WILL BRING A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS THROUGH THE BERING
SEA AND THE GULF COAST...BUT THERE DOESNT APPEAR TO BE ANOTHER
MAJOR SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM ON THE WAY FOR NEXT WEEK.

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 191.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING 178
         STORM WARNING 130 175 176 177
         GALE WARNING 119 120 131 132 138 139 150 155 .
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...DEK