Gale Warning 703, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
521 AM AKST THU NOV 6 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW STRETCHES DOWN FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA
INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC AND THIS LOW IS BRINGING A FRONT TOWARDS
THE SOUTHERN GULF FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. FURTHER WEST RIDGING IS
MOVING IN OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES...NORTHERLY FLOW DOMINATES MUCH OF THE BERING. OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE HIGH PRESSURE SITS KEEPING MOST OF THE
ACTIVE WEATHER FOR MAINLAND ALASKA ALONG THE GULF COAST.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND ONLY HAVE MINOR DISCREPANCIES AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WESTERN GULF WITH POSITIONING. THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING
TOWARDS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON FRIDAY HAS A FEW MORE
DIFFERENCES. THE NAM...GFS AND GEM HAVE BEEN FURTHER NORTH THAN
THE EC WHICH IS MOVES TO THE EAST JUST NORTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.
HOWEVER...THEIR POSITIONS AND SPEEDS HAVE VARIED MORE THAN THE EC
AND THE EC HAS BEEN QUICKER IN MAKING CORRECTIONS TO THE LOWS
PATH. THIS HAS LED TO THE EC BEING THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SOUTHEAST FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT IS APPROACHING THE
GULF WILL BRING SOME LIGHTER RAIN AND SNOW TO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THEN THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE GULF AND CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST A BARRIER JET WILL
SETUP ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BRINGING MUCH STRONGER
EASTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA. THESE WINDS WILL LAST INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WHEN THEY WILL DIMINISH. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO THE GULF COAST TONIGHT WITH PRIMARILY
RAIN ALONG THE COAST THAT WILL MIX WITH SNOW AS IT GETS FURTHER
INLAND. HOWEVER...ONLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT THROUGH
THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL LAST INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY RAIN AND SNOW WILL STAY ON THE
PACIFIC SIDE OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA KEEPING MOST OF THE SOUTHWEST
DRY. THEN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH
WILL BRING SNOW TO PLACES ALL AROUND BRISTOL BAY...BUT LEAVE THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY LARGELY DRY. THE
PRECIPITATION FOR THE BRISTOL BAY AREA WILL LIGHTEN UP LATER ON
FRIDAY BUT IT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 3)...
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE BERING IS BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE PACIFIC
SIDE OF THE ALEUTIANS WHICH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN
A RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST PUSHING THE PRECIPITATION OFF TO
THE EAST. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC BRINGING RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS FIRST TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN BERING. FROM
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LOW ITSELF MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN BERING...WIND GUSTS INTO THE 80 MPH RANGE ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN BERING. THEN THE
STORM WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST WHILE WEAKENING...HOWEVER STORM FORCE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
AND BERING.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH THE
EXTRATROPICAL LOW TRACK THROUGH THE BERING THIS WEEKEND...BUT
OTHERWISE THERE REMAINS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SIGNIFICANT
AND INTENSE SYSTEM INTO SUNDAY. AS THIS LOW ENTERS THE CENTRAL
BERING...EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW WILL SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY
BY LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS IT INTERACTS
WITH STRONG RIDGING STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN GULF TO THE ALCAN
BORDER...KEEPING THE STRONGEST WINDS CONFINED TO THE BERING SEA
REGION AND SOUTHWEST COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST GALE FORCE
WITH 20 TO 30 FOOT SEAS TO THE WEST OF THE PRIBILOFS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHEN THE LOW TRACKS NORTHWARD AND WEAKENS OVER EASTERN
SIBERIA. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WTIH RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE
SOUTHWEST COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
RAIN MAINLY TO THE GULF COAST FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL
LOOK TO REMAIN LIMITED TO OCCASIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH
STRONG DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK LOW SKIRTING KODIAK ISLAND
DISSIPATES NEAR SOUTHERN COOK INLET.

AFTER THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
THERE IS REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT THAT RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN
GULF WILL SPREAD INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY AND THE EASTERN INTERIOR
WHILE A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
BERING. THIS WILL BRING A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS THROUGH THE BERING
SEA AND THE GULF COAST...BUT THERE DOESNT APPEAR TO BE ANOTHER
MAJOR SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM ON THE WAY FOR NEXT WEEK.

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 191.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING 178
         STORM WARNING 130 175 176 177
         GALE WARNING 119 120 131 132 138 139 150 155 .
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...DEK