Small Craft Advisory 882, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
513 PM AKST THU NOV 6 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
E-W TROF LIFTING TO THE GULF CST THIS AFTERNOON MOVES INLAND AND
DISSIPATES THURSDAY EVENING. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ALONG
THE NORTH GULF COAST, WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SOUTHWEST ALONG
THE KENAI PENINSULA ACROSS THE BARREN ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE SOUTH OF PUNTILLA.

972 MB STORM AROUND 320 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKINAK MOVES NORTHEAST
TO 85 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WEAKENS TO 985
MB. MINIMUM GALES AND RAIN KODIAK ISLAND DIMINISH THIS EVENING
BEHIND THE FRONT BUT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE GULF COAST TONIGHT
WITH PRE-FRONTAL SPEEDS OF 40 TO 45 KT. A NARROW BAND OF STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE BARRENS INTO KAMISHAK BAY WITH
GALES SOUTHERN COOK INLET.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE GFS/EC MODELS WERE USED BY BOTH DOMAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...A ROBUST TRIPLE
POINT LOW IS CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE SOUTH OF KODIAK. THIS WILL BE
THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BEFORE THAT LOW
TRACKS NORTH TOWARD THE GULF COAST...ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IS BRINING
SOME ISOLATED RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TO KACHEMAK BAY. THIS FEATURE WILL FALL APART
ALONG THE COAST LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW TO SOUTH QUICKLY
APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM AS BUOY
46066 IS REPORTING A PRESSURE AT LOW AS ABOUT 971MB THIS
AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE THAT IS ABOUT AS DEEP AS THIS LOW WILL GO
AS IT STARTS TO PULL AWAY FROM MOST OF THE JET SUPPORT AND THERMAL
ADVECTION.

AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST TONIGHT...EXPECT EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS TO INCREASE FOR MANY AREAS FROM THE MAT-SU VALLEY TO KODIAK
ISLAND TO THOMPSON PASS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL HIT THE COAST IN
EARNEST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MOST PLACES WILL SEE SOME WARM
ADVECTION AS IT MOVES INLAND AND SHOULD TURN TO MOSTLY RAIN. BUT A
FEW SPOTS SUCH AS INLAND WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL HOLD ON
TO COLDER TEMPERATURES AND COULD PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION FOR THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MAT-SU
VALLEY TO JUST ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS.

OVER THE WEEKEND...THE LOW MEANDERS ITS WAY TOWARD THE COOK
INLET. AND WHILE IT WILL BE WEAKENING...ITS EXACT TRACK SHOULD BE
MONITORED AS IT HAS AN OUTSIDE TRACK OF BRINGING SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO THE KENAI PENINSULA AND POSSIBLY TO ANCHORAGE AS DOWNSLOPE
WINDS DIE OFF.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE BRISTOL BAY AREA AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE PENINSULA FROM THE
SOUTH. STEADIER PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE ALEUTIAN
RANGE AND ALASKA PENINSULA INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...AND TAPER OFF
DURING THE WEEKEND. THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL
MOSTLY REMAIN DRY..WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
FORMING MAINLY ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE TOMORROW AND PERSISTING INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAKENING FRONT CURRENTLY PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING AND ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...AS RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS BUILDS AND TRACKS EASTWARD. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO TRACK INTO
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BRINGING RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS TO THE WESTERN BERING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WIND GUSTS
AROUND 75 TO 90 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND
WESTERN BERING FROM TOMORROW MORNING THOUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE
STORM WILL THEN SLOWLY TRACK EAST WHILE WEAKENING...HOWEVER STORM
FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)...
THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN BERING WILL MAKE
SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LEADING FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH THE BOUNDARY STRETCHING EAST INTO THE GULF. EXPECT A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND BRISTOL BAY WILL
SNOW ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND DELTA. THE RAIN WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE GULF TO THE COAST. INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL WILL
MAINLY SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE WILL
STAY CENTERED OVER THE BERING AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND MULTIPLE WAVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALASKA AND SURROUNDING WATERS KEEPING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 191.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING 178
         STORM WARNING 119 120 130 131 175 176 177
         GALE WARNING 132 137 138 139 150 155 170 172 173
                      174 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...KH