Small Craft Advisory 62, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
332 AM AKST MON JAN 20 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN EXISTS OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH CARVING OUT OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC EXTENDING TO 35N. THE PERSISTENT EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH A NEGATIVE TILT RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO
EASTERN ALASKA. A MODERATELY STRONG WAVE DISTURBANCE IS TRACKING OVER
THE ALASKA PENINSULA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED 969 HPA SURFACE LOW
TRACKING INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
ALONG A VERY SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE...WITH THE SURFACE LOW SLOWLY
WEAKENING IN THE EASTERN BERING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN ANOMALOUSLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
PERSISTS OVER ALASKA. HOWEVER...THEY DIVERGE WITH WITH A SERIES OF
LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW...WITH THE
FIRST WAVE EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN ALASKA ON TUESDAY. THE
NAM IS AN OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS AND ECWMF IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND AMPLITUDE. THE GFS AND ECWMF
WERE FAVORED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH A BLEND TO WPC IN THE EXTENDED.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...
PERIODS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE...MOST OF THE INTERIOR
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH CLOUDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WAVE
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHCENTRAL LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST...AND RAIN
SHOWERS SPREADING INLAND. WEDNESDAY WILL DRY OUT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...WITH CONTINUED RAIN ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA/ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
THE LOW MOVING INTO THE BRISTOL BAY AREA THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA. WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING RIGHT AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS...THERE
HAVE NOT BEEN ANY BLOWING SNOW ISSUES AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE.
TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AT THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS...SO
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IT IS
QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THEY WILL OCCUR. WE WILL KEEP THE BLIZZARD
WARNING GOING...BUT IT MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLY. FOR NOW WE
WILL KEEP THINGS SIMPLE.

AS FOR WIND CONCERNS ACROSS BRISTOL BAY...THERE IS STILL GOOD
LOW-LEVEL JET SUPPORT AND FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR WINDS
CHANNELING THROUGH THE ALEUTIAN RANGE TERRAIN. WHILE THE HIGH WIND
WARNING LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY MARGINAL...IT SEEMS REASONABLE FOR SOME
WIND REPORTS ABOVE 75 MPH SO WE WILL CONTINUE THAT AS IS.

THE NEXT LOW TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
ALEUTIANS/ALASKA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE NORTHWARD. AT THIS
TIME THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO BE FARTHER WEST BUT SHOWS SIMILAR
STRENGTH TO THE CURRENT LOW. GALE FORCE WINDS AND A SIMILAR
DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THE CURRENT LOW CAN BE
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

THIS ACTIVE AND WARM PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME BRIEF COOL-DOWNS...EXPECT
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE MAINLAND AND
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 195.
         HIGH WIND WARNING 161.
MARINE...GALES 119 120 130 131 132 137 150 155 160 165 170 171 172
179 180 352 412 414.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185 411 412.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AHSENMACHER/MBS JAN 14