Small Craft Advisory 60, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 19 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA EXTENDS OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THEN NEAR
THE ALCAN BORDER. THIS PATTERN IS CONTINUING TO SEND STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT INTO THE STATE. A STRONG 250 MB JET STREAM WITH A MAX WIND
SPEED OVER 200 KT IS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS BUT IS IN A GOOD
LOCATION TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP STRONG SURFACE LOWS THAT TRACK INTO
THE BERING SEA. THE CURRENT STRONG LOW IS APPROACHING THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND WILL CROSS INTO THE BERING SEA TONIGHT. THIS IS A
FAIRLY STRONG LOW BUT NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE ONE FROM THE END OF
LAST WEEK WHICH WAS STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD. THIS LOW HAS
ALREADY REACHED PEAK INTENSITY AND HAS ALREADY STARTED TO WEAKEN
SLOWLY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE WAY
THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW SPLITS AND SENDS THE MAIN ENERGY INTO THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE LOW WHICH IS HEADING INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA
TONIGHT. THE REAL UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS LOW COMES INTO PLAY ON
TUESDAY WHEN THE LOW IN CENTERED NEAR ST MATTHEW ISLAND AND A TROUGH
EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE TRACK OF THE LOW. THE NAM AND ECMWF
DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW CENTER IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE NEWENHAM WHICH
THEY THEN MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THE GFS AND GEM
BOTH KEEP THIS A TROUGH AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD. THE DIFFERENCE IN
SOLUTIONS WILL IMPACT THE WINDS AND CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY AREAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL...THE FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA WILL ONCE AGAIN USHER IN SOME WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION.
WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE IN THE USUAL AREAS SUCH AS TURNAGAIN
ARM...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THIS PAST FRIDAY. COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE
RAINFALL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY WITH KODIAK ISLAND SEEING THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS.

SOUTHWEST...THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW NEAR THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND NORTHWEST AROUND THIS LOW
AND SET UP OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS TONIGHT AND THEN BE STATIONARY
OVER THAT AREA FOR MOST OF TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS AND GOOD LIFTING OVER THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 4 TO 8 INCHES OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED.
DUTCH HARBOR WILL LIKELY ALSO SEE A LITTLE BLOWING SNOW BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. AREAS
AROUND BRISTOL BAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN VERY MILD AIR WHICH MAY KEEP
SOME OF THE AREAS FROM EVEN GETTING BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE SAME OVERALL ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME BRIEF COOLER
PERIODS...EXPECT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE
AREA AND PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 195.
MARINE...GALE 119 120 125 130-137 150-171 179 180.
         STORM 172. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JAN 14