Gale Warning 93, NWS Anchorage, AK

057 
FZAK51 PAFC 210314 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST MON JAN 20 2014

CORRECTED ZONE 138

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-211500-
400 PM AKST MON JAN 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+COOK INLET...

A SERIES OF WEATHER FRONTS WILL TRACK NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE GULF
THROUGH LATE WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-211500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE
400 PM AKST MON JAN 20 2014

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT
SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ120-211500-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST MON JAN 20 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT
BUILDING TO 17 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11
FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-211500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST MON JAN 20 2014

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 30 KT.
SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-211500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST MON JAN 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE.
SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ126-211500-
PORT VALDEZ
400 PM AKST MON JAN 20 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ127-211500-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 PM AKST MON JAN 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ128-211500-
VALDEZ ARM
400 PM AKST MON JAN 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-211500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST MON JAN 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-211500-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY
400 PM AKST MON JAN 20 2014

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ131-211500-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST
400 PM AKST MON JAN 20 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 13
FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-211500-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST MON JAN 20 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-211500-
CHINIAK BAY
400 PM AKST MON JAN 20 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-211500-
MARMOT BAY
400 PM AKST MON JAN 20 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT DIMINISHING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-211500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST MON JAN 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ139-211500-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE
400 PM AKST MON JAN 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT . 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-211500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND
400 PM AKST MON JAN 20 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5
FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
30 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-211500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST MON JAN 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
332 AM AKST MON JAN 20 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN EXISTS OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH CARVING OUT OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC EXTENDING TO 35N. THE PERSISTENT EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH A NEGATIVE TILT RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO
EASTERN ALASKA. A MODERATELY STRONG WAVE DISTURBANCE IS TRACKING OVER
THE ALASKA PENINSULA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED 969 HPA SURFACE LOW
TRACKING INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
ALONG A VERY SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE...WITH THE SURFACE LOW SLOWLY
WEAKENING IN THE EASTERN BERING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN ANOMALOUSLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
PERSISTS OVER ALASKA. HOWEVER...THEY DIVERGE WITH WITH A SERIES OF
LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW...WITH THE
FIRST WAVE EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN ALASKA ON TUESDAY. THE
NAM IS AN OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS AND ECWMF IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND AMPLITUDE. THE GFS AND ECWMF
WERE FAVORED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH A BLEND TO WPC IN THE EXTENDED.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...
PERIODS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE...MOST OF THE INTERIOR
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH CLOUDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WAVE
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHCENTRAL LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST...AND RAIN
SHOWERS SPREADING INLAND. WEDNESDAY WILL DRY OUT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...WITH CONTINUED RAIN ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA/ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
THE LOW MOVING INTO THE BRISTOL BAY AREA THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA. WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING RIGHT AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS...THERE
HAVE NOT BEEN ANY BLOWING SNOW ISSUES AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE.
TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AT THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS...SO
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IT IS
QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THEY WILL OCCUR. WE WILL KEEP THE BLIZZARD
WARNING GOING...BUT IT MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLY. FOR NOW WE
WILL KEEP THINGS SIMPLE.

AS FOR WIND CONCERNS ACROSS BRISTOL BAY...THERE IS STILL GOOD
LOW-LEVEL JET SUPPORT AND FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR WINDS
CHANNELING THROUGH THE ALEUTIAN RANGE TERRAIN. WHILE THE HIGH WIND
WARNING LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY MARGINAL...IT SEEMS REASONABLE FOR SOME
WIND REPORTS ABOVE 75 MPH SO WE WILL CONTINUE THAT AS IS.

THE NEXT LOW TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
ALEUTIANS/ALASKA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE NORTHWARD. AT THIS
TIME THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO BE FARTHER WEST BUT SHOWS SIMILAR
STRENGTH TO THE CURRENT LOW. GALE FORCE WINDS AND A SIMILAR
DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THE CURRENT LOW CAN BE
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

THIS ACTIVE AND WARM PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME BRIEF COOL-DOWNS...EXPECT
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE MAINLAND AND
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 195.
         HIGH WIND WARNING 161.
MARINE...GALES 119 120 130 131 132 137 150 155 160 165 170 171 172
179 180 352 412 414.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185 411 412.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AHSENMACHER/MBS JAN 14