Small Craft Advisory 249, NWS Anchorage, AK

050 
FZAK51 PAFC 241125
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
325 AM AKDT MON MAR 24 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-250045-
325 AM AKDT MON MAR 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.


$$

PKZ119-250045-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
325 AM AKDT MON MAR 24 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ120-250045-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
325 AM AKDT MON MAR 24 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-250045-
RESURRECTION BAY-
325 AM AKDT MON MAR 24 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-250045-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
325 AM AKDT MON MAR 24 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF NORTHERN BAYS AND
PASSES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 30 KT OUT NORTHERN BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ126-250045-
PORT VALDEZ-
325 AM AKDT MON MAR 24 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ127-250045-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
325 AM AKDT MON MAR 24 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... 

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ128-250045-
VALDEZ ARM-
325 AM AKDT MON MAR 24 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING
TO 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-250045-
PASSAGE CANAL-
325 AM AKDT MON MAR 24 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 35KT NEAR WHITTIER AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING. SEAS
2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-250045-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
325 AM AKDT MON MAR 24 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ131-250045-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
325 AM AKDT MON MAR 24 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-250045-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
325 AM AKDT MON MAR 24 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-250045-
CHINIAK BAY-
325 AM AKDT MON MAR 24 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-250045-
MARMOT BAY-
325 AM AKDT MON MAR 24 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-250045-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
325 AM AKDT MON MAR 24 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ139-250045-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
325 AM AKDT MON MAR 24 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-250045-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
325 AM AKDT MON MAR 24 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
1 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
1 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-250045-
KACHEMAK BAY-
325 AM AKDT MON MAR 24 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
134 PM AKDT SUN MAR 23 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN ALASKA CONTINUES TO BLOCK STORM SYSTEMS FROM THE
MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE TODAY. A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER
THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA IS SENDING A FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND IT PUSHES INTO THE
RIDGE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. ANOTHER LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA IS ALSO PUSHING A FRONT TOWARD THE STATE. THIS FRONT IS
ALSO NOT MAKING MUCH HEADWAY AGAINST THE RIDGE BUT IS TIGHTENING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF.
THE GENERAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE STATE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ON CAVEAT THAT
IS CHANGING SOME IS THAT THE ECMWF MODELS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
THE NAM OR GFS IN BRINGING A SHORT LIVED PUSH OF CLOUDS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. OTHER THAN THAT THERE IS
LITTLE ELSE TO COMPARE AND CONTRAST ON THE MODELS TODAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE AREAS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEK. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THERE ARE SOME CLOUDS IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA
AHEAD F THE WEAKENING WEATHER FRONT IN THE BERING SEA. THESE
CLOUDS WILL RETREAT WESTWARD OVERNIGHT BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BACK TO THE AREA. THE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL ALSO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS OVER THE AREA.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...A WEATHER FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY THIS FRONT WILL ELONGATE AND WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE BERING SEA AND EASTWARD OVER
THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE
FRONT IS RAIN WHICH IS OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA
PENINSULA.
THERE ARE SOME SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
NEAR SHEMYA AND ATTU. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT BUT WILL NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD OR PRODUCE ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. &&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE PERSISTENT PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF THE RIDGE OVER
THE MAINLAND BREAKING DOWN BY NEXT WEEKEND. SINCE MODELS TEND TO TRY
TO BREAK DOWN BLOCKING PATTERNS TOO QUICKLY...IT WOULD SEEM PRUDENT
TO CONTINUE WITH PERSISTENCE UNTIL A PATTERN CHANGE BECOMES CLEAR.
THEREFORE...THE MAIN ACTIVE WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
BERING...ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN...AND ALONG OR SOUTH
OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND COAST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 127 128 132 150 155.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

MAR 14