Small Craft Advisory 246, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
131 PM AKDT SAT MAR 22 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING HIGH OVER ALASKA...CENTERED NEAR
KOTZEBUE. THIS IS CURRENTLY A "REX BLOCK" WITH A LOW OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 84 HOURS
(TUESDAY AFTERNOON). COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY STABLE BLOCKING
PATTERN THIS LEADS TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE EASTERN BERING LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND JOIN UP WITH THE KAMCHATKA LOW/FRONT SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE KOTZEBUE HIGH TO SETTLE IN OVER THE
ENTIRE MAINLAND OF ALASKA...TRANSITIONING FROM A REX BLOCK INTO AN
OMEGA BLOCK BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHEAST.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY OVER MOST OF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH PUSHES INTO THE
AREA. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS DRYNESS WILL BE ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN BERING LOW WILL LINGER OVER
THE PENINSULA THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN BE JOINED BY THE KAMCHATKA
LOW FRONT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT NEARS THE MAINLAND.

FOR THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND THEN TO
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS LATE SUNDAY...AND TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA
ON MONDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL KEEP CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 132 138 150 177.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

LUDWIG MAR 14