Gale Warning 263, NWS Anchorage, AK

206 
FZAK62 PAFC 232336
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
336 PM AKDT SUN MAR 23 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-241430-
336 PM AKDT SUN MAR 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH MON. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA MON NIGHT AND A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA TUE.

$$

PKZ411-241430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
336 PM AKDT SUN MAR 23 2014

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-241430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
336 PM AKDT SUN MAR 23 2014

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-241430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
336 PM AKDT SUN MAR 23 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-241430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
336 PM AKDT SUN MAR 23 2014

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT. 
.WED...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 0 TO 5 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
131 PM AKDT SAT MAR 22 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING HIGH OVER ALASKA...CENTERED NEAR
KOTZEBUE. THIS IS CURRENTLY A "REX BLOCK" WITH A LOW OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 84 HOURS
(TUESDAY AFTERNOON). COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY STABLE BLOCKING
PATTERN THIS LEADS TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE EASTERN BERING LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND JOIN UP WITH THE KAMCHATKA LOW/FRONT SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE KOTZEBUE HIGH TO SETTLE IN OVER THE
ENTIRE MAINLAND OF ALASKA...TRANSITIONING FROM A REX BLOCK INTO AN
OMEGA BLOCK BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHEAST.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY OVER MOST OF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH PUSHES INTO THE
AREA. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS DRYNESS WILL BE ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN BERING LOW WILL LINGER OVER
THE PENINSULA THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN BE JOINED BY THE KAMCHATKA
LOW FRONT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT NEARS THE MAINLAND.

FOR THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND THEN TO
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS LATE SUNDAY...AND TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA
ON MONDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL KEEP CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 132 138 150 177.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

LUDWIG MAR 14