High Wind Watch 8, NWS Anchorage, AK

771 
WWAK72 PAFC 121206
NPWALU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
406 AM AKDT FRI SEP 12 2014

AKZ185-121315-
/O.CAN.PAFC.HW.A.0008.140913T1000Z-140914T0300Z/
EASTERN ALEUTIANS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...UNALASKA...NIKOLSKI
406 AM AKDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...HIGH WIND WATCH IS CANCELLED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WATCH. 

THE STRONGEST CORE OF WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
REGION OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN CHAIN.

$$

AKZ187-130115-
/O.UPG.PAFC.HW.A.0008.140913T0200Z-140913T1800Z/
/O.NEW.PAFC.HW.W.0012.140913T0800Z-140913T1900Z/
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ATKA AND ADAK
406 AM AKDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM
AKDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM AKDT
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATION...CENTRAL ALEUTIANS INCLUDING ATKA AND ADAK.

* WIND... WEST WIND 50 TO 65 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 75 MPH. 

* TIMING...WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS
  THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE BERING STRENGTHENS. THE WORST
  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS
  ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS MAY MOVE LOOSE DEBRIS AND MAY DAMAGE 
  PROPERTY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

JAM

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
220 PM AKDT THU SEP 11 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TODAY CONSIST OF A STRONG LOW IN
THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA.
THIS WEAK RIDGE IS MOVING EASTWARD AS IT AMPLIFIES WHICH WILL PUT
SOUTHERN ALASKA IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IN SHORT ORDER. THE JET
STREAM IS RUNNING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE BERING SEA. THE EXTRA-TROPICAL
SYSTEM WE HAVE BEEN TRACKING IS CAUGHT UP IN THE JET STREAM AND
CURVING TOWARD THE BERING SEA LOW...AND THE TWO WILL MERGE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
ANOTHER FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE BAROCLINIC AREA ALONG A FRONT
ENTERING THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
RAINFALL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND THEN ENTRAIN SOME OF THE
MOISTURE FROM THE EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE LOCKED IN NICELY TO THE WAY THE EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM
WILL MERGE WITH THE LOW IN THE BERING SEA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE TWO
LOWS WILL COMBINE OVERNIGHT NEAR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND THEN
CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD AGAIN. THIS LOW
WILL REACH A MINIMUM PRESSURE IN THE MID TO UPPER 950 MBS RANGE.
IT WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO MOVE...REMAINING IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA
AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKENING THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ONE SIGNIFICANT ITEM
THAT LOOKS A BIT DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY IS THE TRACK OF THE
MOISTURE FROM THE EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM. YESTERDAY IT LOOKED LIKE
THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WOULD GET ENTRAINED INTO THE FRONT
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. FROM THE SATELLITE DATA TODAY IT
APPEARS THAT ONLY A LIMITED AMOUNT OF THIS MOISTURE WILL GET
ENTRAINED INTO THE FRONT WITH THE MAJORITY REMAINING WITH THE LOW
AND HEADING INTO THE BERING SEA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THE BREAK IN THE RAINFALL WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. DUE TO THE MORE WESTERLY
TRACK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM THERE MAY BE
LESS INTENSE RAINFALL THAT WHAT IT LOOKED LIKE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER
THERE WILL STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT THAT FALLS OVER THE
EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND THE NORTH GULF COAST. THE WESTERN SUSITNA
VALLEY WILL ALSO GET SOME PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL
CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO RISE ALONG AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.
HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN TURNAGAIN
ARM AND ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ANCHORAGE HILLSIDE.
THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH ON
SATURDAY. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH WIND SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL FROM THIS EVENT DUE TO THE STRONG DOWN-INLET FLOW
OF THE WINDS FOR MOST OF THE EVENT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
WITH THE TRACK OF THE EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM HEADING INTO THE
EASTERN BERING SEA AND SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ALASKA THERE WILL BE
MORE WIND AND RAIN IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND BE ESPECIALLY STRONG ALONG THE COAST AND
THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN. RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE RIVERS IN THE REGION ARE RUNNING A LITTLE LOW AND
HAVE ROOM FOR THE EXTRA RAINFALL. THEREFORE WHILE THE RIVER AND
STREAM LEVELS WILL RISE...THE IS NO FLOODING EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LINGER IN THE BERING SEA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
PRODUCE A NUMBER OF OCCLUDED FRONTS THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION AS THE LOW SPINS AROUND THE BERING SEA. THAT WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS FOLLOWED BY BRIEF BREAKS IN THE
WEATHER BETWEEN THE OCCLUSIONS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE BERING SEA WILL SEE A LOT OF STORMY WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH THE MERGING OF THE CURRENT LOW WITH THE EXTRA-
TROPICAL SYSTEM. RUSSELL CREEK NEAR COLD BAY HAS A FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR IT IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND OTHER CREEKS AND STREAMS ALONG
THE ALASKA PENINSULA MAY BE CLOSE TO BANKFULL AS WELL.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WILL BE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WILL BE THE STRONGEST EXPERIENCED SINCE
LAST WINTER. THE WEATHER WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AS THIS LOW WILL
STILL BE IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA BY SUNDAY. IT WILL HAVE
WEAKENED SOME BUT IT WILL STILL BE BRINGING SOME RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED TERM CONTINUES TO BE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE BERING SEA LOW AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY LATE SUNDAY BUT HAVE ALSO
REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS...WITH THE EC BRINGING THE LOW INLAND OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND THE GFS TAKING IT ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND THEN INTO THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN GULF. PREFER THE EC
SOLUTION FOR NOW AS THE GEM AND NAM HAVE BOTH TRENDED THAT
DIRECTION IN THE PAST FEW RUNS. REGARDLESS OF THE ULTIMATE TRACK
OF THE LOW...THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND LOOKS TO REMAIN IN A CLOUDY AND
WET PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA KEEPS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
FOCUSED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
ALSO PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BERING IN THE VICINITY
OF THE LOW...WITH A MORE SHOWERY REGIME FARTHER WEST IN NORTHERLY
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101.
         HIGH WIND WATCH 185 187.
         FLOOD ADVISORY 181.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 173 174 175 176 413
         GALE WARNING 119 120 130 132 138 139 150 155 160 165
                      170 172 177 178 179 180 181 185 351 352
                      411 412 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

EZ/CB SEP 14