Gale Warning 500, NWS Anchorage, AK

881 
FZAK61 PAFC 112300
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT THU SEP 11 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-121315-
300 PM AKDT THU SEP 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
BY EARLY FRI MORNING. A SECOND AND STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN GULF FRI NIGHT AND TRACK TO THE NORTHERN GULF ON SAT.

$$

PKZ351-121315-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
300 PM AKDT THU SEP 11 2014

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ352-121315-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
300 PM AKDT THU SEP 11 2014

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

972 
FZAK61 PAFC 121147
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
347 AM AKDT FRI SEP 12 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-130215-
347 AM AKDT FRI SEP 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
BY EARLY FRI MORNING. A SECOND AND STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN GULF FRI NIGHT AND TRACK TO THE NORTHERN GULF ON SAT.

$$

PKZ351-130215-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
347 AM AKDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ352-130215-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
347 AM AKDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

995 
FZAK61 PAFC 122336
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
336 PM AKDT FRI SEP 12 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-131345-
336 PM AKDT FRI SEP 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHERN
GULF ON SAT. A 965 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO
58N 161W AT 985 MB SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-131345-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
336 PM AKDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ352-131345-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
336 PM AKDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.MON...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

759 
FZAK61 PAFC 131147
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
347 AM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-140145-
347 AM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INLAND AND
DISSIPATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN GULF SUN MORNING AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF MON MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-140145-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
347 AM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.TODAY...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ352-140145-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
347 AM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.TODAY...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.MON...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
153 PM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS A STRONG LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING
SEA WITH A TRANSITORY RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND A WEAKER
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA. THE JET STREAM AT 250 MB IS
RUNNING JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AROUND THE BERING SEA
LOW AT AROUND 150 KT.
THE SURFACE LOW IN THE BERING SEA IS SEEN CLEARLY ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND ITS STRUCTURE DRAWS A CONTRAST WITH THE EXTRA-
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO ITS SOUTH WHICH WILL BE A BIG WEATHER FEATURE
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
WHILE NO MODEL IS COMPLETELY LOCKED ONTO WHAT THE APPROACHING
EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL DO THEY ARE STARTING TO CONVERGE
TOWARD A SOLUTION THAT WE CAN WORK WITH. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
SITUATION WHERE THE EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
BERING SEA AND MERGES WITH THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE BERING SEA.
THIS WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN THE BERING SEA LOW AND INCREASE WINDS
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THESE
SYSTEMS WILL MERGE IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE LOW CENTER IS NOT THE ONLY KEY FEATURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING SEA LOW WILL BE THE TRACK THE
MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM TAKES. AS THE
EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD THE FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING SEA LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE EXTRA-
TROPICAL SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH IT. THE RESULT WILL BE THE MOISTURE FROM
THE EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL GET ENTRAINED WITH THE FRONT AND
MOVE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. &&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THE DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTH GULF COAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING RAINFALL TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THIS BATCH OF
RAIN. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXTRA-
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REACH KODIAK THURSDAY EVENING AND TO THE
NORTH GULF COAST AND KENAI PENINSULA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
DUE SOUTH ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AT THAT TIME WILL
ALSO BRING SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND
RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR IN SOME OF THE MORE RAIN SHADOWED AREAS SUCH
AS ANCHORAGE. THE BACK OF THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE KENAI
PENINSULA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SHIFT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FATHER EASTWARD
AT THAT TIME TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR IN SOME AREAS WITH THIS SYSTEM. AN
IMPORTANT PART OF THE MAIN LOW CENTER MOVING FARTHER WEST IN THE
BERING SEA WILL BE TO MINIMIZE THE AMOUNT OF WIND THAT WILL MAKE
IT INTO THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. TURNAGAIN ARM AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE STRONG WINDS BUT IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE
MAJORITY OF ANCHORAGE WILL NOT SEE OVERLY STRONG WINDS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
RAINFALL FROM THE CURRENT BERING SEA SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSIST AS THE SYSTEMS MERGE.
THIS DURATION OF RAINFALL WILL INCREASE WATER LEVELS OF THE
STREAMS AND RIVERS BUT THERE IS NOT ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS
TIME. THE WINDS MAY BECOME MORE OF A FACTOR BY FRIDAY AS STRONG
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE BERING SEA REGION WILL SEE A LOT OF WHAT IT HAS BEEN SEEING
WITH THE LARGE LOW LOCATED THERE...WINDS AND RAINFALL WILL
INCREASE WITH THE INFLUX OF ENERGY FROM THE EXTRA- TROPICAL
SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE THE STRONGEST SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS FALL SEASON.
&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
NOW THAT THE OVERNIGHT MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW OVER THE BERING
BY EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THE LONG TERM FOCUS HAS NOW SHIFTED TO THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GEM AND EC HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BROUGHT THIS SYSTEM ASHORE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND BY LATE SUNDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN EQUALLY
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THIS LOW ACROSS THE AKPENN AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF. FOR NOW THE FORECAST RELIES HEAVILY ON WPC
GUIDANCE BEYOND SUNDAY...WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
AND THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS SOLUTION. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT LOW
TRACK HOWEVER THE LONG TERM FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL REMAINS
CLOUDY AND WET THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GULF COAST WILL
RECEIVE ONLY SHORT LIVED BREAKS IN THE OTHERWISE STEADY AND
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...AS PERSISTENT
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH PANHANDLE WILL KEEP THE AREA EXPOSED TO
DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS HOWEVER REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAIN...AS
IT WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE BERING LOW. &&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 172 177 178 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

SEP 14