Gale Warning 501, NWS Anchorage, AK

676 
FZAK62 PAFC 112352
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
352 PM AKDT THU SEP 11 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-121400-
352 PM AKDT THU SEP 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 986 MB LOW NEAR 48N 168W WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTH TO 57N 168W
TONIGHT AND MERGE WITH A 988 MB LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 56N 180. THIS
MERGED LOW WILL THEN RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN TO 959 MB NEAR 57N 172W
FRI AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL THEN DRIFT TO 56N 167W AT 965 MB SAT
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-121400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
352 PM AKDT THU SEP 11 2014

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 20 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ412-121400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
352 PM AKDT THU SEP 11 2014

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 15 TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 TO 45 KT BECOMING NE 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ413-121400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
352 PM AKDT THU SEP 11 2014

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING W 35 TO 50 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT BUILDING TO 10 TO 16 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 TO 26 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 26 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ414-121400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
352 PM AKDT THU SEP 11 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.MON...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

568 
FZAK62 PAFC 121137
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
337 AM AKDT FRI SEP 12 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-130100-
337 AM AKDT FRI SEP 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 975 MB LOW CENTERED AT 57N 169W THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NEAR 56N
172W AT 962 MB SAT MORNING...THEN NEAR 57N 161W AT 982 MB SUN
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-130100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
337 AM AKDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ412-130100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
337 AM AKDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ413-130100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
337 AM AKDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT BECOMING W 40 TO 50 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 25 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 40 TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 TO 25 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ414-130100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
337 AM AKDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT BECOMING S 25 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

907 
FZAK62 PAFC 122351
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
351 PM AKDT FRI SEP 12 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-131445-
351 PM AKDT FRI SEP 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 965 MB LOW NEAR 57N 174W WILL MOVE TO 58N 161W AT 985 MB SUN
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-131445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
351 PM AKDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ412-131445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
351 PM AKDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ413-131445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
351 PM AKDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 TO 25 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 25 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ414-131445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
351 PM AKDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

701 
FZAK62 PAFC 131138
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
338 AM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-140230-
338 AM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 963 MB LOW NEAR 56N 171W THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO 58N 161W AT
977 MB SUN MORNING. THE LOW MOVES TO 58N 160W AT 987 MB SUN
EVENING AND MOVES INLAND NEAR DILLINGHAM EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-140230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
338 AM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ412-140230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
338 AM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ413-140230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
338 AM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 TO 23 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.

$$

PKZ414-140230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
338 AM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

760 
FZAK62 PAFC 132319
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
319 PM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-141315-
319 PM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 974 MB LOW NEAR 56N 167W THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 58N 160W
AT 985 MB SUN AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN TO 994 MB AS IT MOVES
INLAND NEAR DILLINGHAM MONDAY.

$$

PKZ411-141315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
319 PM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ412-141315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
319 PM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.SUN...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ413-141315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
319 PM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ414-141315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
319 PM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25
KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
153 PM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS A STRONG LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING
SEA WITH A TRANSITORY RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND A WEAKER
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA. THE JET STREAM AT 250 MB IS
RUNNING JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AROUND THE BERING SEA
LOW AT AROUND 150 KT.
THE SURFACE LOW IN THE BERING SEA IS SEEN CLEARLY ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND ITS STRUCTURE DRAWS A CONTRAST WITH THE EXTRA-
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO ITS SOUTH WHICH WILL BE A BIG WEATHER FEATURE
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
WHILE NO MODEL IS COMPLETELY LOCKED ONTO WHAT THE APPROACHING
EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL DO THEY ARE STARTING TO CONVERGE
TOWARD A SOLUTION THAT WE CAN WORK WITH. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
SITUATION WHERE THE EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
BERING SEA AND MERGES WITH THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE BERING SEA.
THIS WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN THE BERING SEA LOW AND INCREASE WINDS
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THESE
SYSTEMS WILL MERGE IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE LOW CENTER IS NOT THE ONLY KEY FEATURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING SEA LOW WILL BE THE TRACK THE
MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM TAKES. AS THE
EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD THE FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING SEA LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE EXTRA-
TROPICAL SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH IT. THE RESULT WILL BE THE MOISTURE FROM
THE EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL GET ENTRAINED WITH THE FRONT AND
MOVE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. &&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THE DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTH GULF COAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING RAINFALL TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THIS BATCH OF
RAIN. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXTRA-
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REACH KODIAK THURSDAY EVENING AND TO THE
NORTH GULF COAST AND KENAI PENINSULA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
DUE SOUTH ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AT THAT TIME WILL
ALSO BRING SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND
RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR IN SOME OF THE MORE RAIN SHADOWED AREAS SUCH
AS ANCHORAGE. THE BACK OF THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE KENAI
PENINSULA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SHIFT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FATHER EASTWARD
AT THAT TIME TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR IN SOME AREAS WITH THIS SYSTEM. AN
IMPORTANT PART OF THE MAIN LOW CENTER MOVING FARTHER WEST IN THE
BERING SEA WILL BE TO MINIMIZE THE AMOUNT OF WIND THAT WILL MAKE
IT INTO THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. TURNAGAIN ARM AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE STRONG WINDS BUT IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE
MAJORITY OF ANCHORAGE WILL NOT SEE OVERLY STRONG WINDS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
RAINFALL FROM THE CURRENT BERING SEA SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSIST AS THE SYSTEMS MERGE.
THIS DURATION OF RAINFALL WILL INCREASE WATER LEVELS OF THE
STREAMS AND RIVERS BUT THERE IS NOT ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS
TIME. THE WINDS MAY BECOME MORE OF A FACTOR BY FRIDAY AS STRONG
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE BERING SEA REGION WILL SEE A LOT OF WHAT IT HAS BEEN SEEING
WITH THE LARGE LOW LOCATED THERE...WINDS AND RAINFALL WILL
INCREASE WITH THE INFLUX OF ENERGY FROM THE EXTRA- TROPICAL
SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE THE STRONGEST SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS FALL SEASON.
&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
NOW THAT THE OVERNIGHT MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW OVER THE BERING
BY EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THE LONG TERM FOCUS HAS NOW SHIFTED TO THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GEM AND EC HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BROUGHT THIS SYSTEM ASHORE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND BY LATE SUNDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN EQUALLY
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THIS LOW ACROSS THE AKPENN AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF. FOR NOW THE FORECAST RELIES HEAVILY ON WPC
GUIDANCE BEYOND SUNDAY...WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
AND THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS SOLUTION. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT LOW
TRACK HOWEVER THE LONG TERM FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL REMAINS
CLOUDY AND WET THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GULF COAST WILL
RECEIVE ONLY SHORT LIVED BREAKS IN THE OTHERWISE STEADY AND
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...AS PERSISTENT
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH PANHANDLE WILL KEEP THE AREA EXPOSED TO
DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS HOWEVER REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAIN...AS
IT WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE BERING LOW. &&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 172 177 178 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

SEP 14