Gale Warning 440, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Jun 15, 2014, 3:11 PM AKDT (23:11 UTC)

Expired

Jun 16, 2014, 3:30 AM AKDT

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

637 
FZAK51 PAFC 152311
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
311 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-161130-
311 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 80 NM E OF SITKINAK AT
995 MB MON AFTERNOON AND THEN STRENGTHEN TO 984 MB AS IT MOVES TO
70 NM NE OF KODIAK EARLY TUE MORNING. THE LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN TO
990 MB AS IT MOVES TO 100 NM S OF SEWARD BY TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-161130-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
311 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ120-161130-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
311 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ121-161130-
RESURRECTION BAY-
311 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT SUBSIDING.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-161130-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
311 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT
NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO
10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-161130-
PORT VALDEZ-
311 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-161130-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
311 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-161130-
VALDEZ ARM-
311 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-161130-
PASSAGE CANAL-
311 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-161130-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
311 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ131-161130-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
311 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ132-161130-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
311 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 35 KT S OF
DANGEROUS CAPE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ136-161130-
CHINIAK BAY-
311 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-161130-
MARMOT BAY-
311 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-161130-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
311 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-161130-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
311 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-161130-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
311 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING.
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-161130-
KACHEMAK BAY-
311 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Jun 15, 1:52 PM AKDT, 1 hour 19 minutes earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
152 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN RUSSIA TO THE ROCKIES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH EMBEDDED LOWS OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND
SOUTHEAST AK. A RIDGE IS CENTERED JUST EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND. A
JET MAX HAS ROUNDED THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN LOW AND IS PUSHING INTO
THE RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS IS WEAKENING WHILE A SECOND LOW BENEATH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET IS FORMING WELL SOUTH OF THE AKPEN. A
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET IS BEGINNING
TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE AKPEN. A THERMAL TROUGH IS DRAPED
ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER MOST OF THE BERING
AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS...WHICH HAVE BEEN WAVERING THE PAST FEW DAYS AND GENERATING
LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HAVE COME TOGETHER OVER THE LAST FEW
RUNS. THE MAIN PLAYER WILL BE THE LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE
AKPEN. IT WILL MOVE UP THE AKPEN AND INTENSIFY DUE EAST OF KODIAK
MON EVENING...AND THEN DRIFT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF TUE NIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING WED AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL ENTER
THE GULF MON MORNING AND STRENGTHEN UNTIL IT REACHES THE NORTH
GULF COAST MON AFTERNOON. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM THEN WEAKENS IN PLACE
OVER THE GULF THROUGH WED.

WHILE THIS IS HAPPENING...THE THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE ALASKA
RANGE TODAY WILL DRIFT NORTHWEST AND BEGIN TO PIVOT SO THAT BY WED
IT IS DRAPED BETWEEN THE KUSKOKWIM MOUNTAINS AND THE
ALASKA/ALEUTIAN RANGE. THE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL CROSS
SOUTHWEST AK TONIGHT...BUT WILL INTERSECT THE THERMAL TROUGH
DURING PEAK HEATING MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING JUST NORTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS DISSIPATES
BY MON MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE BERING INTO WED.
A SHORT WAVE LOW DIVES OUT OF EASTERN RUSSIA TUE AFTERNOON AND
REACHES THE THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WITH A FRONT ON WED.

THE EC STILL SEEMS TO BE BRINGING THE INITIAL LOW TOO CLOSE TO
KODIAK ISLAND AND THEN TOO FAR NORTH...WHILE THE GFS AND NAM
REMAIN A BIT MORE TO THE EAST WITH THE LOW AND THEN BRING IT
ACROSS THE GULF AFTER THE ASSOCIATED FRONT HAS DISSIPATED. THE
FORECAST UTILIZE A FAIR AMOUNT OF GFS AND NAM IN THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...

SHOWERY ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH SOME EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED NEAR THE
TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS AND ALASKA RANGE. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST ON MON AND INLAND AREAS BY TUE AND
WHERE IT WILL PERSIST INTO WED.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK WITH POSSIBLE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THIS
EVENING AND ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM MOUNTAINS AND EAST OF BETHEL ON
MON. A BRIEF BREAK TUE NIGHT WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH THE APPROACHING EASTERN RUSSIA LOW ON WED.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

THE LOW MOVING ACROSS ALEUTIANS WILL BRING RAIN AND SHOWERS
THROUGH MON NIGHT TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CHAIN....WITH DRY
CONDITIONS TRAILING THE LOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SHOWERS LIMITED TO COASTAL LOCATIONS AS THE EASTERN
RUSSIA LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST WED.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SHAPED BY A SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC...SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATING AROUND
IT. THE RESULT WILL BE WETTER AND COOLER TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK THEN TRANSITIONING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE CIRCULATION ALOFT STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK MAKING THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW...WHICH USUALLY AREN'T
HANDLED QUITE WELL BY GUIDANCE EVEN IN THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...120 125 130 131 139 150 155
         STORMS...119 FIRE
WEATHER...NONE.

&&

DS/ML JUN 14

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2014Every gale warning in 2014

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.