Gale Warning 439, NWS Anchorage, AK

637 
FZAK51 PAFC 152311
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
311 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-161130-
311 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 80 NM E OF SITKINAK AT
995 MB MON AFTERNOON AND THEN STRENGTHEN TO 984 MB AS IT MOVES TO
70 NM NE OF KODIAK EARLY TUE MORNING. THE LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN TO
990 MB AS IT MOVES TO 100 NM S OF SEWARD BY TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-161130-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
311 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ120-161130-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
311 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ121-161130-
RESURRECTION BAY-
311 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT SUBSIDING.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-161130-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
311 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT
NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO
10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-161130-
PORT VALDEZ-
311 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-161130-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
311 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-161130-
VALDEZ ARM-
311 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-161130-
PASSAGE CANAL-
311 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-161130-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
311 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ131-161130-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
311 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ132-161130-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
311 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 35 KT S OF
DANGEROUS CAPE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ136-161130-
CHINIAK BAY-
311 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-161130-
MARMOT BAY-
311 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-161130-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
311 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-161130-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
311 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-161130-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
311 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING.
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-161130-
KACHEMAK BAY-
311 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
445 AM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

AN EASTERLY WAVE PROPAGATING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
WEAKENING LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO PARTS OF ANCHORAGE...THE MAT-SU VALLEY...AND KENAI
PENINSULA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THIS WAVE PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
THE KENAI PENINSULA TOWARD THE GULF OF ALASKA. A VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE BERING SEA
THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUED OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS OVERNIGHT AND HAS SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARD DUTCH
HARBOR AND THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. A WEAK SURFACE BASED LOW WITH
LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT (FOR NOW) HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR/UNALASKA. THE BERING SEA
TROUGH HAS BEGUN TO INTERACT WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE NEAR 40N
175W. THE ORIENTATION OF THE SHORTWAVE AND A SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENING
RIDGE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC HAS BEGUN TO PUSH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
TOWARD THE GULF OF ALASKA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH A NORTH
PACIFIC LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF UNALASKA TODAY AND PUSHING TOWARD
THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA  WHILE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING.
HOWEVER...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO STRUGGLE AS A SHORTWAVE
OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL PHASE WITH THE MAIN BERING SEA
TROUGH. THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF ENERGY PHASED INTO THE TROUGH
WILL IMPACT THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTH
PACIFIC LOW. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE A SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER...DUE
IN LARGE PART TO THE SHORTWAVE BEING PRESENTLY LOCATED OUTSIDE OF
THE NAM DOMAIN. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE NAM TYPICALLY STRUGGLES WITH
SYSTEM DEVELOPING FROM THIS SOURCE REGION.

THE GFS/EC/GEM HAVE SIMILAR EVOLUTIONS OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW
AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF LATE MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF/GEM WANT TO PUSH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INLAND OVER THE
KENAI PENINSULA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF. THE GFS SOLUTION LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE FROM A DYNAMICS
STANDPOINT. THE LOW IN THE GULF SHOULD GET PRETTY WOUND UP WITH
GOOD JET SUPPORT...WHICH SHOULD SLOW THE NORTHERN PROPAGATION OF
THE LOW. ANOTHER THING THAT COULD IMPACT THE OVERALL TRACK OF THE
LOW IS A SHORTWAVE THAT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF THE ARCTIC LATE MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY...BUT MODELS AGREEMENT IS PRETTY POOR REGARDING
THAT FEATURE AT THIS TIME. AFTER EXAMINING THE POOR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY AND LOOKING AT THE 00Z AND 06Z MODEL OUTPUT...IT WAS
DECIDED TO LEAVE THE INHERITED WIND FORECAST FROM 18Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY ALONE UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT THE 00Z ECMWF DID SLOW THE
LOW A GOOD BIT AND KEPT IT OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA LONGER
THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN...SO HOPEFULLY THIS MEANS THE MODELS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD THE SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH GFS SOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ANCHORAGE...THE MAT-SU VALLEY AND THE
KENAI PENINSULA AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
TOWARD THE MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
AND ALONG THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS. A DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC LOW
AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA ON
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE
AREA. STRONG CROSS BARRIER FLOW SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION MORE
SHOWERY FOR THE DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS OF THE KENAI CHUGACH MOUNTAIN
RANGES (ANCHORAGE...PARTS OF THE MAT-SU VALLEY AND INTERIOR KENAI
PENINSULA). GUSTY TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS AND OTHER SOUTHEASTERLY GAP
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A STRONG BARRIER JET
WILL ESTABLISH AS THE FRONT SLAMS AGAINST THE GULF COAST TUESDAY
MORNING.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST
OVER THE BRISTOL BAY AREA NORTH OF DILLINGHAM THIS MORNING AS A
WEAK 700 MB WAVE SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. A STRONG WAVE OUT
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN INTO INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD SHOT OF
RAINFALL TO THE BRISTOL BAY AREA AND LOWER KUSKOWKIM VALLEY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES THIS AFTERNOON
AS DECREASED CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT
DIURNAL HEATING. ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BERING
SEA WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
CHANCES. HOWEVER...AS THE DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC LOW PUSHES INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA...SOME DOWNSLOPING WILL BE SEEN ALONG THE
DOWNSTREAM AREAS OF THE ALEUTIAN ALEUTIAN RANGE (KING SALMON).

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS DURING THE DAY. THIS
WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THESE AREAS...INCLUDING THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS. AS THE LOW SLIDES EASTWARD...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. THIS SHOULD DECREASE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING SEA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS...RAIN SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

THE TRACK OF THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL DETERMINE THE EXACT
PRECIPITATION PATTERN ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH THURSDAY.
REGARDLESS...A COOL AND WET PERIOD WILL BE OBSERVED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERSISTENT THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS
THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA WHICH WOULD LEAD TO CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA FRIDAY AND THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AT THIS TIME. OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA...A SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM
THE ARCTIC UNDER STEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. JUST LIKE SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MOUNTAINOUS
REGIONS FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE MAINLAND.

OVER THE BERING SEA...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN BERING SEA THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PUSHED OFF THE COAST
OF JAPAN WILL PUSH OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND FLATTEN OUT THE WEAK RIDGE. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO ALEUTIANS ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN BERING
SEA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH THE RIDGE FLATTENED OUT...ZONAL FLOW
WILL PERSIST WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WEAK WAVES TO PUSH
ACROSS THE BERING SEA THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

MCLAY JUN 14