Gale Warning 428, NWS Anchorage, AK

764 
FZAK61 PAFC 152009 CCA
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1209 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

UPDATED ZONES 351 352

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-160315-
1209 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR 55N 152W AT 999 MB
MON AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL THEN STRENGTHEN TO 985 MB AS IT MOVES
TO 58N 150W EARLY TUE MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-160315-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
1209 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ352-160315-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
1209 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
445 AM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

AN EASTERLY WAVE PROPAGATING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
WEAKENING LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO PARTS OF ANCHORAGE...THE MAT-SU VALLEY...AND KENAI
PENINSULA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THIS WAVE PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
THE KENAI PENINSULA TOWARD THE GULF OF ALASKA. A VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE BERING SEA
THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUED OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS OVERNIGHT AND HAS SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARD DUTCH
HARBOR AND THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. A WEAK SURFACE BASED LOW WITH
LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT (FOR NOW) HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR/UNALASKA. THE BERING SEA
TROUGH HAS BEGUN TO INTERACT WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE NEAR 40N
175W. THE ORIENTATION OF THE SHORTWAVE AND A SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENING
RIDGE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC HAS BEGUN TO PUSH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
TOWARD THE GULF OF ALASKA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH A NORTH
PACIFIC LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF UNALASKA TODAY AND PUSHING TOWARD
THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA  WHILE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING.
HOWEVER...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO STRUGGLE AS A SHORTWAVE
OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL PHASE WITH THE MAIN BERING SEA
TROUGH. THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF ENERGY PHASED INTO THE TROUGH
WILL IMPACT THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTH
PACIFIC LOW. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE A SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER...DUE
IN LARGE PART TO THE SHORTWAVE BEING PRESENTLY LOCATED OUTSIDE OF
THE NAM DOMAIN. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE NAM TYPICALLY STRUGGLES WITH
SYSTEM DEVELOPING FROM THIS SOURCE REGION.

THE GFS/EC/GEM HAVE SIMILAR EVOLUTIONS OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW
AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF LATE MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF/GEM WANT TO PUSH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INLAND OVER THE
KENAI PENINSULA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF. THE GFS SOLUTION LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE FROM A DYNAMICS
STANDPOINT. THE LOW IN THE GULF SHOULD GET PRETTY WOUND UP WITH
GOOD JET SUPPORT...WHICH SHOULD SLOW THE NORTHERN PROPAGATION OF
THE LOW. ANOTHER THING THAT COULD IMPACT THE OVERALL TRACK OF THE
LOW IS A SHORTWAVE THAT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF THE ARCTIC LATE MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY...BUT MODELS AGREEMENT IS PRETTY POOR REGARDING
THAT FEATURE AT THIS TIME. AFTER EXAMINING THE POOR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY AND LOOKING AT THE 00Z AND 06Z MODEL OUTPUT...IT WAS
DECIDED TO LEAVE THE INHERITED WIND FORECAST FROM 18Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY ALONE UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT THE 00Z ECMWF DID SLOW THE
LOW A GOOD BIT AND KEPT IT OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA LONGER
THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN...SO HOPEFULLY THIS MEANS THE MODELS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD THE SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH GFS SOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ANCHORAGE...THE MAT-SU VALLEY AND THE
KENAI PENINSULA AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
TOWARD THE MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
AND ALONG THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS. A DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC LOW
AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA ON
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE
AREA. STRONG CROSS BARRIER FLOW SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION MORE
SHOWERY FOR THE DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS OF THE KENAI CHUGACH MOUNTAIN
RANGES (ANCHORAGE...PARTS OF THE MAT-SU VALLEY AND INTERIOR KENAI
PENINSULA). GUSTY TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS AND OTHER SOUTHEASTERLY GAP
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A STRONG BARRIER JET
WILL ESTABLISH AS THE FRONT SLAMS AGAINST THE GULF COAST TUESDAY
MORNING.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST
OVER THE BRISTOL BAY AREA NORTH OF DILLINGHAM THIS MORNING AS A
WEAK 700 MB WAVE SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. A STRONG WAVE OUT
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN INTO INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD SHOT OF
RAINFALL TO THE BRISTOL BAY AREA AND LOWER KUSKOWKIM VALLEY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES THIS AFTERNOON
AS DECREASED CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT
DIURNAL HEATING. ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BERING
SEA WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
CHANCES. HOWEVER...AS THE DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC LOW PUSHES INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA...SOME DOWNSLOPING WILL BE SEEN ALONG THE
DOWNSTREAM AREAS OF THE ALEUTIAN ALEUTIAN RANGE (KING SALMON).

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS DURING THE DAY. THIS
WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THESE AREAS...INCLUDING THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS. AS THE LOW SLIDES EASTWARD...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. THIS SHOULD DECREASE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING SEA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS...RAIN SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

THE TRACK OF THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL DETERMINE THE EXACT
PRECIPITATION PATTERN ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH THURSDAY.
REGARDLESS...A COOL AND WET PERIOD WILL BE OBSERVED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERSISTENT THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS
THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA WHICH WOULD LEAD TO CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA FRIDAY AND THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AT THIS TIME. OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA...A SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM
THE ARCTIC UNDER STEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. JUST LIKE SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MOUNTAINOUS
REGIONS FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE MAINLAND.

OVER THE BERING SEA...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN BERING SEA THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PUSHED OFF THE COAST
OF JAPAN WILL PUSH OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND FLATTEN OUT THE WEAK RIDGE. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO ALEUTIANS ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN BERING
SEA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH THE RIDGE FLATTENED OUT...ZONAL FLOW
WILL PERSIST WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WEAK WAVES TO PUSH
ACROSS THE BERING SEA THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

MCLAY JUN 14