Gale Warning 429, NWS Anchorage, AK

949 
FZAK61 PAFC 161144
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
344 AM AKDT MON JUN 16 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-170115-
344 AM AKDT MON JUN 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 56N 153W THIS AFTERNOON
AT 994 MB. THIS LOW WILL THEN STRENGTHEN TO 984 MB AS IT MOVES TO
58N 152W TUE MORNING AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 999 MB AS IT MOVES
TO 59N 148W LATE TUE.

$$

PKZ351-170115-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
344 AM AKDT MON JUN 16 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.WED...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.

$$

PKZ352-170115-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
344 AM AKDT MON JUN 16 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S TO SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

836 
FZAK61 PAFC 162340
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
340 PM AKDT MON JUN 16 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-171400-
340 PM AKDT MON JUN 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 992 MB LOW NEAR 57N 152W WILL STRENGTHEN TO 984 MB AS IT MOVES
TO NEAR 58N 151W LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN
TO 1007 MB AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 60N 147W WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-171400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
340 PM AKDT MON JUN 16 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.

$$

PKZ352-171400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
340 PM AKDT MON JUN 16 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

078 
FZAK61 PAFC 171200
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 17 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-180115-
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 984 MB LOW NEAR 58N 152W WILL WEAKEN TO 990 MB AS IT MOVES TO
NEAR 59N 148W THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO NEAR 60N
147W AT 1006 MB BY WED AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THERE
THROUGH THU MORNING. 

$$

PKZ351-180115-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 17 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ352-180115-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 17 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.

$$

338 
FZAK61 PAFC 172319
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
319 PM AKDT TUE JUN 17 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-181345-
319 PM AKDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 991 MB LOW NEAR 58N 149W WILL WEAKEN TO 997 MB NEAR 59N 146W
LATE TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN IN PLACE TO 1006 MB WED
EVENING AND DISSIPATE WED NIGHT. A 1006 MB LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND INTO THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 54N 148W ON THU
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-181345-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
319 PM AKDT TUE JUN 17 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.THU...E WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ352-181345-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
319 PM AKDT TUE JUN 17 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS
.WED...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND UP TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

030 
FZAK61 PAFC 181200
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT WED JUN 18 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-190115-
400 AM AKDT WED JUN 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 999 MB LOW NEAR 59N 146W WILL WEAKEN IN PLACE TO 1008 MB THIS 
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. A 1006 MB LOW WILL MOVE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND INTO THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 54N 148W 
ON THU AFTERNOON. ITS STRENGTH WILL REMAIN STEADY AS IT MOVES
NEAR 52N 143W BY FRI MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-190115-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
400 AM AKDT WED JUN 18 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ352-190115-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
400 AM AKDT WED JUN 18 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND UP TO 15 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND UP TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
152 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN RUSSIA TO THE ROCKIES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH EMBEDDED LOWS OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND
SOUTHEAST AK. A RIDGE IS CENTERED JUST EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND. A
JET MAX HAS ROUNDED THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN LOW AND IS PUSHING INTO
THE RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS IS WEAKENING WHILE A SECOND LOW BENEATH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET IS FORMING WELL SOUTH OF THE AKPEN. A
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET IS BEGINNING
TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE AKPEN. A THERMAL TROUGH IS DRAPED
ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER MOST OF THE BERING
AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS...WHICH HAVE BEEN WAVERING THE PAST FEW DAYS AND GENERATING
LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HAVE COME TOGETHER OVER THE LAST FEW
RUNS. THE MAIN PLAYER WILL BE THE LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE
AKPEN. IT WILL MOVE UP THE AKPEN AND INTENSIFY DUE EAST OF KODIAK
MON EVENING...AND THEN DRIFT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF TUE NIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING WED AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL ENTER
THE GULF MON MORNING AND STRENGTHEN UNTIL IT REACHES THE NORTH
GULF COAST MON AFTERNOON. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM THEN WEAKENS IN PLACE
OVER THE GULF THROUGH WED.

WHILE THIS IS HAPPENING...THE THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE ALASKA
RANGE TODAY WILL DRIFT NORTHWEST AND BEGIN TO PIVOT SO THAT BY WED
IT IS DRAPED BETWEEN THE KUSKOKWIM MOUNTAINS AND THE
ALASKA/ALEUTIAN RANGE. THE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL CROSS
SOUTHWEST AK TONIGHT...BUT WILL INTERSECT THE THERMAL TROUGH
DURING PEAK HEATING MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING JUST NORTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS DISSIPATES
BY MON MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE BERING INTO WED.
A SHORT WAVE LOW DIVES OUT OF EASTERN RUSSIA TUE AFTERNOON AND
REACHES THE THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WITH A FRONT ON WED.

THE EC STILL SEEMS TO BE BRINGING THE INITIAL LOW TOO CLOSE TO
KODIAK ISLAND AND THEN TOO FAR NORTH...WHILE THE GFS AND NAM
REMAIN A BIT MORE TO THE EAST WITH THE LOW AND THEN BRING IT
ACROSS THE GULF AFTER THE ASSOCIATED FRONT HAS DISSIPATED. THE
FORECAST UTILIZE A FAIR AMOUNT OF GFS AND NAM IN THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...

SHOWERY ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH SOME EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED NEAR THE
TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS AND ALASKA RANGE. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST ON MON AND INLAND AREAS BY TUE AND
WHERE IT WILL PERSIST INTO WED.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK WITH POSSIBLE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THIS
EVENING AND ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM MOUNTAINS AND EAST OF BETHEL ON
MON. A BRIEF BREAK TUE NIGHT WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH THE APPROACHING EASTERN RUSSIA LOW ON WED.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

THE LOW MOVING ACROSS ALEUTIANS WILL BRING RAIN AND SHOWERS
THROUGH MON NIGHT TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CHAIN....WITH DRY
CONDITIONS TRAILING THE LOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SHOWERS LIMITED TO COASTAL LOCATIONS AS THE EASTERN
RUSSIA LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST WED.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SHAPED BY A SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC...SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATING AROUND
IT. THE RESULT WILL BE WETTER AND COOLER TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK THEN TRANSITIONING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE CIRCULATION ALOFT STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK MAKING THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW...WHICH USUALLY AREN'T
HANDLED QUITE WELL BY GUIDANCE EVEN IN THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...120 125 130 131 139 150 155
         STORMS...119 FIRE
WEATHER...NONE.

&&

DS/ML JUN 14