Severe Thunderstorm Warning 134, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
107 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

...RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING PERSIST OVERNIGHT...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO TRACK ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAD PUSHED SOUTH AND BECOME WEST TO EAST ORIENTED
NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER. A SUPERCELL WAS TRACKING EAST NEAR OR
JUST NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WHILE MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION
CONTINUED TRAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND THE REGION BECOMES POSITIONED WITHIN
THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THESE FEATURES WILL ALSO
INTERACT WITH LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGING UPON THE BOUNDARY TO SUPPORT
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.

WHILE THE RISK OF SEVERE HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT THE STRONGER
CELLS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ANY STORMS
CLOSER TO THE ARKANSAS BORDER WHERE THE AIRMASS IS LESS
CONTAMINATED WILL HAVE THE GREATER CHANCE OF BECOMING SEVERE
INCLUDING THE RISK OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONVECTION SURGING NORTHEAST FROM EAST
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY COULD BRING ENHANCED SEVERE RISK
PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WINDS TO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT RISK AS STORMS CONTINUE TO
TRAIN ACROSS THE REGION. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION MAY INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER AND LOW LEVEL JET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

SEE MESO AFD FOR MORE DETAILS THROUGH TONIGHT. MAIN CONCERN LATE
TONIGHT WILL BE FLOODING/HYDRO ISSUES. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET WILL IMPINGE ON APPROACHING MESOSCALE SFC BOUNDARY. PROGGED
PWATS AROUND 1.75 INCHES WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING ON THE OUTFLOW DOMINATE PORTION OF THE
MCS SOMEWHERE OVER THE REGION WHERE STORMS CAN TRAIN ALONG A WSW-
ENE ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. FCST GUIDANCE HAS TARGETED THE MO
OZARK PLATEAU FOR THIS SCENARIO WITH AN EXCESS OF 3-4 INCHES OF
RAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE PRECISE LOCATION OF THE EXCESSIVE/HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE AN UNFOLDING STORM AND MESOSCALE ISSUE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. MAY
HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
EXITS...BUT WILL TACKLE THAT LATER ON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE QUIET AND COOL WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
SOUTH INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER
PLAINS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE W-E UPPER LEVEL FLOW TOWARD
THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

ANOTHER WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS PUSHING INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES OVER THE
INITIAL 3 TO 4 HOURS OF THE TAFS. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
THE CONVECTION AND VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION.
SHOULD SEE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS SATURDAY FOR JLN/SGF AND BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON AT BBG.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

MESOSCALE...FOSTER
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...LINDENBERG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1031 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-020345-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1031 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED TORNADO RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
  EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
  A JOPLIN TO ROLLA LINE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
  DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...HAIL TO THE
  SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

  IN ADDITION...TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
  CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
  INCHES AND ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL LIKELY
  LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND NEAR
  CREEKS AND STREAMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

  THE RISK FOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AS RUNOFF FROM
  HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES.

  THERE IS A LIMITED TO ELEVATED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
  THE EASTERN OZARKS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI SATURDAY.

  A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
  THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
  INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

LINDENBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1102 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1056 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HARTVILLE               37.25N 92.51W
05/31/2013                   WRIGHT             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            SEVERAL LOW WATER CROSSINGS THROUGHOUT COUNTY ARE FLOODED
            AT THIS TIME.

&&

GAEDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1126 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 PM     HAIL             5 S MANSFIELD           37.03N 92.58W
05/31/2013  E1.00 INCH       DOUGLAS            MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            QUARTER HAIL

&&

GAEDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1247 AM CDT SAT JUN 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1246 AM     HAIL             1 S ROCKY COMFORT       36.73N 94.09W
06/01/2013  E2.00 INCH       MCDONALD           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

GAEDE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
103 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

MOZ071-081>083-092-010645-
DENT MO-LACLEDE MO-PHELPS MO-TEXAS MO-WRIGHT MO-
103 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PHELPS...
SOUTHEASTERN LACLEDE...SOUTHWESTERN DENT...TEXAS AND WRIGHT COUNTIES
UNTIL 145 AM CDT...

AT 101 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM COMPETITION TO 5
MILES NORTHEAST OF HARTVILLE TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HARTVILLE...
MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BENDAVIS...BEULAH...BUCYRUS...
COMPETITION...DARIEN...DAWSON...EXTREME SOUTHERN FORT LEONARD WOOD...
GRAFF...HARTVILLE...HAZELTON...HOUSTON...HUGGINS...LENOX...LICKING...
LYNCHBURG...MANES...MONTAUK...PLATO...PRESCOTT...RAYMONDVILLE...
ROBY...SALEM...SIMMONS...SOLO...SUCCESS AND YUKON.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY INCLUDE MONTAUK
STATE PARK.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN LACLEDE...SOUTHWESTERN DENT...SOUTHWESTERN
PHELPS...TEXAS AND WRIGHT COUNTIES...INCLUDING HARTVILLE...LICKING...
HOUSTON AND RAYMONDVILLE...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING NEARLY CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS IMMEDIATELY AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3742 9161 3742 9165 3738 9165 3722 9180
      3712 9268 3717 9268 3730 9256 3757 9245
      3761 9216 3760 9204 3762 9203 3768 9151
TIME...MOT...LOC 0603Z 261DEG 44KT 3750 9236 3732 9244
          3719 9256

LINDENBERG

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
138 AM CDT SAT JUN 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0137 AM     HAIL             1 S HIGHLANDVILLE       36.92N 93.28W
06/01/2013  E1.00 INCH       CHRISTIAN          MO   PUBLIC

            NICKEL TO QUARTER HAIL

&&

GAEDE