Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
600 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

SEE MESO AFD FOR MORE DETAILS THROUGH TONIGHT. MAIN CONCERN LATE
TONIGHT WILL BE FLOODING/HYDRO ISSUES. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET WILL IMPINGE ON APPROACHING MESOSCALE SFC BOUNDARY. PROGGED
PWATS AROUND 1.75 INCHES WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING ON THE OUTFLOW DOMINATE PORTION OF THE
MCS SOMEWHERE OVER THE REGION WHERE STORMS CAN TRAIN ALONG A WSW-
ENE ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. FCST GUIDANCE HAS TARGETED THE MO
OZARK PLATEAU FOR THIS SCENARIO WITH AN EXCESS OF 3-4 INCHES OF
RAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE PRECISE LOCATION OF THE EXCESSIVE/HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE AN UNFOLDING STORM AND MESOSCALE ISSUE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. MAY
HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
EXITS...BUT WILL TACKLE THAT LATER ON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE QUIET AND COOL WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
SOUTH INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER
PLAINS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE W-E UPPER LEVEL FLOW TOWARD
THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

CONVECTION CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES AT 23Z. WILL
GRADUALLY SEE THIS TRANSITION SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...BUT
TRANSITION WILL BE A SLOW ONE. HRRR SEEMS TO HANDLE THIS THIS BEST
AND HAVE USED AS GUIDANCE ON TAKING PRECIPITATION SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION
AND MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN THE CONVECTION. COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...DSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
154 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-011900-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
154 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED TORNADO RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.

DISCUSSION...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AFTER 4 PM INTO THIS EVENING. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
BASEBALLS...DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH...AND TORNADOES.

THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 4 PM AND
MIDNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST RISK FOR TORNADOES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI WEST OF MISSOURI HIGHWAY 5.

ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 4 INCHES COULD LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING. THE GREATEST RISK
FOR SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING WILL BE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 MPH AT TIMES ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE RISK FOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL CONTINUES.

THERE IS A LIMITED TO ELEVATED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN OZARKS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI SATURDAY.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN
MISSOURI AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND OVER ALL THE AREA THIS
EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

DSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
548 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             1 E GREENBUSH           37.51N 94.97W
05/31/2013  U0.75 INCH       CRAWFORD           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

KARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
553 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0546 PM     HAIL             10 SSW STOVER           38.31N 93.06W
05/31/2013  E1.75 INCH       MORGAN             MO   911 CALL CENTER

&&

SRUNNELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
557 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0557 PM     HAIL             GIRARD                  37.51N 94.84W
05/31/2013  E1.00 INCH       CRAWFORD           KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

KARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
622 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HAIL             2 S GIRARD              37.48N 94.84W
05/31/2013  E2.50 INCH       CRAWFORD           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

LDOOLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
627 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0626 PM     HEAVY RAIN       FLORENCE                38.59N 92.98W
05/31/2013  E3.00 INCH       MORGAN             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            THREE INCHES OF RAIN IN ABOUT 2.5 HOURS.

&&

LINDENBERG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
650 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

MOZ055-056-010015-
BENTON MO-MORGAN MO-
650 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BENTON AND NORTHERN
MORGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

AT 647 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTH OF EDMONSON...OR 13 MILES NORTHEAST
OF WARSAW...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE COLE CAMP...CROCKERVILLE...EDMONSON...
FLORENCE...MORA...STOVER...SYRACUSE AND VERSAILLES.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN BENTON AND NORTHERN MORGAN COUNTIES...
INCLUDING STOVER AND VERSAILLES...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3869 9284 3868 9283 3860 9283 3844 9264
      3826 9322 3842 9331 3854 9320 3854 9307
      3868 9307 3870 9306
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 243DEG 46KT 3839 9314

BOXELL