Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Springfield, MO

927 
WGUS73 KSGF 010457
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1157 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

MOC011-029-039-057-059-085-105-125-131-167-169-185-010507-
/O.CAN.KSGF.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-130601T0700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BARTON MO-CAMDEN MO-CEDAR MO-HICKORY MO-LACLEDE MO-MARIES MO-
MILLER MO-POLK MO-PULASKI MO-ST. CLAIR MO-DADE MO-DALLAS MO-
1157 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR CAMDEN...EASTERN
CEDAR...HICKORY...MARIES...MILLER...NORTHERN DADE...NORTHERN
DALLAS...NORTHWESTERN LACLEDE...NORTHWESTERN PULASKI...POLK...
SOUTHEASTERN BARTON AND SOUTHERN ST. CLAIR COUNTIES...

FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. 
HOWEVER...MANY STREAMS AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA REMAIN 
FLOODED.  FOR THIS REASON...A FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND 
SMALL STREAMS HAS BEEN ISSUED...REPLACING THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING.

LAT...LON 3834 9220 3830 9218 3829 9163 3805 9163
      3804 9195 3769 9285 3745 9369 3736 9435
      3782 9369 3792 9407 3806 9351 3806 9303
      3834 9228

$$

KARDELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
723 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 712 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

THE TORNADO WATCH THAT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR AREAS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 44 HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTH TO THE ARKANSAS BORDER
AND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. SEVERAL STRONG SUPERCELLS HAVE
FORMED OVER NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND ARE TRACKING TOWARD THE
NEWLY WATCHED AREA. IN PARTICULAR...ONE PARTICULARLY WELL
ORGANIZED SUPERCELL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE OKLAHOMA
KANSAS BORDER INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. ADDITIONAL STORMS
MAY FOLLOW IT INTO THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT. MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
3000 J/KG...LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
VALUES NEAR 200...AND SUFFICIENTLY LOW LCL HEIGHTS ALL FAVOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WITH THESES SUPERCELLS. THE 00Z SOUNDING
FROM SPRINGFIELD SHOWS A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH NO CAPPING
AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS. LARGE HAIL AND A
FEW STRONG TORNADOES ARE SUPPORTED BY THIS SOUNDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

SEE MESO AFD FOR MORE DETAILS THROUGH TONIGHT. MAIN CONCERN LATE
TONIGHT WILL BE FLOODING/HYDRO ISSUES. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET WILL IMPINGE ON APPROACHING MESOSCALE SFC BOUNDARY. PROGGED
PWATS AROUND 1.75 INCHES WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING ON THE OUTFLOW DOMINATE PORTION OF THE
MCS SOMEWHERE OVER THE REGION WHERE STORMS CAN TRAIN ALONG A WSW-
ENE ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. FCST GUIDANCE HAS TARGETED THE MO
OZARK PLATEAU FOR THIS SCENARIO WITH AN EXCESS OF 3-4 INCHES OF
RAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE PRECISE LOCATION OF THE EXCESSIVE/HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE AN UNFOLDING STORM AND MESOSCALE ISSUE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. MAY
HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
EXITS...BUT WILL TACKLE THAT LATER ON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE QUIET AND COOL WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
SOUTH INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER
PLAINS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE W-E UPPER LEVEL FLOW TOWARD
THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

CONVECTION CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES AT 23Z. WILL
GRADUALLY SEE THIS TRANSITION SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...BUT
TRANSITION WILL BE A SLOW ONE. HRRR SEEMS TO HANDLE THIS THIS BEST
AND HAVE USED AS GUIDANCE ON TAKING PRECIPITATION SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION
AND MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN THE CONVECTION. COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

MESOSCALE...KARDELL
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...DSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
754 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-020100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
754 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED TORNADO RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
  EVENING...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR
  EARLY...THEN SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
  MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT.

  ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE EXPECTED WITH LARGE HAIL TO THE
  SIZE OF BASEBALLS...WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH AND ISOLATED
  TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
  WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO
  THREE INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE...AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLASH
  FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE RISK FOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL CONTINUES.

THERE IS A LIMITED TO ELEVATED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN OZARKS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI SATURDAY.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO
CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH 11 PM...AND THEN ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE OZARKS OVERNIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

LINDENBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
752 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 N VERSAILLES          38.50N 92.84W
05/31/2013                   MORGAN             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY E FLOODED BY RUNOFF.

&&

KARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
753 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             3 N STOCKTON            37.74N 93.80W
05/31/2013  E1.75 INCH       CEDAR              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

LDOOLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
755 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             CAPLINGER MILLS         37.79N 93.80W
05/31/2013  E2.50 INCH       CEDAR              MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

LDOOLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
758 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     HAIL             4 W PITTSBURG           37.83N 93.37W
05/31/2013  E0.50 INCH       HICKORY            MO   PUBLIC

&&

LINDENBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
805 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             5 W MELROSE             37.03N 95.05W
05/31/2013  E0.75 INCH       CHEROKEE           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

LDOOLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
810 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 W MELROSE             37.03N 95.05W
05/31/2013                   CHEROKEE           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE LIMBS OF 12 INCHES SNAPPED

&&

LDOOLEY