Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
546 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST TERMINALS THROUGH
LATE THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN ACCOMPANYING HAZARDS OF SMALL HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. EXPECT IFR CIGS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...STRONG WSW WINDS NEAR
25 TO 35 KT CAN BE EXPECTED AT SPS AND LAW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A
WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT
LATER THIS EVENING...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN OK NEAR WWR...GAG...AND PNC.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013/

DISCUSSION...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH HAS MADE IT NEAR
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. RAPID HEIGHT FALLS ARE
NOW BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A RESULT...AND
CONVECTION HAS INITIATED NEAR SOUTHWESTERN OK ALONG A DRYLINE.
LATER THIS MORNING...A PAC COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE DRYLINE
AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD LATE THIS
MORNING AS THIS OCCURS. IN ADDITION...A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL JET
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY LOW...SOME SEVERE LINEAR CLUSTERS MAY DEVELOP WITH A THREAT
OF DAMAGING WIND AND SMALL HAIL THE MAIN CONCERNS. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OK. MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END ACROSS OUR
FA...WITH A RED FLAG THREAT FOLLOWING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OK AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A
WARNING FOR THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOCATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE STRONG 20 FT WINDS AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH WILL
COMBINE WITH VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER AND LOW RH. A WIND ADVISORY HAS
ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SAME AREAS. LATER THIS EVENING AS THE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVER WEST CENTRAL OK...SOME SNOW MAY DEVELOP
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OK. AN INCH OF SNOW OR
SLIGHTLY MORE APPEARS REASONABLY SO AN ADVISORY CANNOT TOTALLY BE
RULED OUT. WILL PASS THIS ON TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST...WITH A
WARMUP THURSDAY AS THICKNESSES INCREASE A BIT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL SLIDE OVER THE FA LATE THURS EVENING AS A CANADIAN WAVE
DIVES SOUTH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...DROPPING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES FRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  34  47  29 /  60  10  10   0
HOBART OK         64  30  48  28 /  10  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  34  52  32 /  50  10   0   0
GAGE OK           54  25  45  24 /  30  30   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     65  31  44  27 /  70  30  10   0
DURANT OK         73  42  53  34 /  80  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ033>038-044.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ033>038-044.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ083>090.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

11/03/03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
518 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-301130-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
518 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR AND EAST OF A
LINE EXTENDING FROM SEYMOUR TEXAS...TO HOBART AND CLINTON...TO
MEDFORD OKLAHOMA.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING
THROUGH NOON. THE THREAT WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS.

IMPACTS...
THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PING-PONG
BALLS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 65 MPH OR GREATER...ALTHOUGH
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DISCUSSION...
VERY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...AND MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE ROCKIES. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO
IMPACT WESTERN NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER MAY CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH ANY SEVERE STORM THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PING
PONG BALLS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST WEDNESDAY JAN 30.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...90 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME WILDFIRE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
VERY STRONG WINDS...VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER...AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN NOW IN EFFECT. A WIND ADVISORY IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR THE SAME REGION FOR STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

AS THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SWITCH TO SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DUE TO INCREASING DEPTH OF COLD AIR. IT APPEARS
THAT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR AND NORTH OF ARNETT...FAIRVIEW...AND MEDFORD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE AROUND NOON TODAY.
UPDATES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THEN AS NEW DATA BECOMES
AVAILABLE.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
917 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0912 AM     HAIL             2 SSE WARR ACRES        35.50N 97.60W
01/29/2013  E1.00 INCH       OKLAHOMA           OK   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

FM