Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
448 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

.DISCUSSION...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH HAS MADE IT NEAR
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. RAPID HEIGHT FALLS ARE
NOW BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A RESULT...AND
CONVECTION HAS INITIATED NEAR SOUTHWESTERN OK ALONG A DRYLINE.
LATER THIS MORNING...A PAC COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE DRYLINE
AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD LATE THIS
MORNING AS THIS OCCURS. IN ADDITION...A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL JET
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY LOW...SOME SEVERE LINEAR CLUSTERS MAY DEVELOP WITH A THREAT
OF DAMAGING WIND AND SMALL HAIL THE MAIN CONCERNS. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OK. MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END ACROSS OUR
FA...WITH A RED FLAG THREAT FOLLOWING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OK AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A
WARNING FOR THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOCATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE STRONG 20 FT WINDS AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH WILL
COMBINE WITH VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER AND LOW RH. A WIND ADVISORY HAS
ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SAME AREAS. LATER THIS EVENING AS THE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVER WEST CENTRAL OK...SOME SNOW MAY DEVELOP
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OK. AN INCH OF SNOW OR
SLIGHTLY MORE APPEARS REASONABLY SO AN ADVISORY CANNOT TOTALLY BE
RULED OUT. WILL PASS THIS ON TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST...WITH A
WARMUP THURSDAY AS THICKNESSES INCREASE A BIT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL SLIDE OVER THE FA LATE THURS EVENING AS A CANADIAN WAVE
DIVES SOUTH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...DROPPING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES FRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  34  47  29 /  60  10  10   0
HOBART OK         64  30  48  28 /  10  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  34  52  32 /  50  10   0   0
GAGE OK           54  25  45  24 /  30  30   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     65  31  44  27 /  70  30  10   0
DURANT OK         73  42  53  34 /  80  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ033>038-044.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ033>038-044.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ083>090.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

11/03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
700 PM CST MON JAN 28 2013

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-291130-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
700 PM CST MON JAN 28 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 2 AM... MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-44...AND ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING EAST OF A
CROWELL TEXAS TO HOBART OKLAHOMA TO BLACKWELL OKLAHOMA LINE.
HOWEVER... NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH ANY ACTIVITY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...
VERY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING...
BUT CHANCES WILL INCREASE AFTER 2 AM TONIGHT AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY SEVERE STORM THROUGH 7 AM TUESDAY WOULD
BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS. DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 65 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST TUESDAY JAN 29.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...90 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...30 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-44 AS A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION.

THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 65 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AS WELL. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH NOON ON TUESDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLHAOMA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO A COMBINATION OF WINDY CONDITIONS...LOW HUMIDITY...
AND WARM TEMPERATURES. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.

STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NECESSARY.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY
5 AM TUESDAY.

MBS/30