Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Norman, OK

547 
WWUS84 KOUN 292009
RFWOUN

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
209 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING CANCELLED...

OKZ033>038-044-TXZ083>090-292115-
/O.CAN.KOUN.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130130T0000Z/
HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-COMANCHE-COTTON-HARDEMAN-FOARD-
WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
209 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. 

ALTHOUGH STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH 
WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL 
LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 20 TO 25 PERCENT.  SOME COOLER AIR IS ALSO
MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND A COOL FRONT.  


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1122 PM CST MON JAN 28 2013

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS... LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ALSO EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE BRIEF STRONG VARIABLE WIND GUSTS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL THEN
BE POSSIBLE TUES AFTN/EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF AREA.
RAIN/STORM CHANCES TOO LOW IN SOME LOCATIONS FOR MENTION IN TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 PM CST MON JAN 28 2013/

UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. WILL BACK OFF A BIT
ON PRECIP CHANCES THIS EVENING... WITH CHANCES INCREASING LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.

WITH HIGH PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR PART OF WHERE WE
CURRENTLY HAVE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL LEAVE IT A WATCH AND NOT
UPGRADE AT THIS POINT. IF PRECIP DOES NOT OCCUR... HIGHLY LIKELY
THAT AN UPGRADE TO WARNING WILL BE NEEDED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 PM CST MON JAN 28 2013/

AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING TO IFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUES MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF OK/WESTERN NORTH TX.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG AND VARIABLE WINDS. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL OK TUES AFTERNOON. WITH THE SCATTERED AND BRIEF NATURE OF
THE ACTIVITY... CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY TOO LOW FOR MENTION OF
STORMS/RAIN AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST MON JAN 28 2013/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FOR LATE JANUARY. LONG WAVE TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US...WILL PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/CENTRAL US TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DECENT CAP BELOW 8H SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH RATHER SUBSTAINTIAL HEIGHT FALLS.  VERY STRONG
SHEAR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF FA...AND
WEAK/MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-1 KM HELICITY AND LOW LEVEL
CAPE VALUES WILL ALSO SUPPORT A RISK OF A TORNADO OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 9-15Z TUESDAY.

MODELS MOVE BETTER RISK OF SEVERE STORMS INTO EASTERN AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE FA...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND
BEHIND AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

RATHER STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL ELEVATE FIRE DANGER BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE A LOT AS SUNSET APPROACHES
TUESDAY...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AS A FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL PROVIDE
DRY WEATHER WITH A SHOT OF COLD AIR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

SOUTH WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AROUND MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  69  34  49 /  40  60  20  10
HOBART OK         55  64  31  49 /  20  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  64  73  33  54 /  40  60   0   0
GAGE OK           48  55  21  47 /  10  40  30   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  66  30  46 /  30  60  30  10
DURANT OK         65  75  43  55 /  40  80  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR OKZ033>038-044.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

30/25/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
700 PM CST MON JAN 28 2013

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-291130-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
700 PM CST MON JAN 28 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 2 AM... MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-44...AND ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING EAST OF A
CROWELL TEXAS TO HOBART OKLAHOMA TO BLACKWELL OKLAHOMA LINE.
HOWEVER... NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH ANY ACTIVITY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...
VERY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING...
BUT CHANCES WILL INCREASE AFTER 2 AM TONIGHT AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY SEVERE STORM THROUGH 7 AM TUESDAY WOULD
BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS. DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 65 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST TUESDAY JAN 29.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...90 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...30 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-44 AS A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION.

THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 65 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AS WELL. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH NOON ON TUESDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLHAOMA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO A COMBINATION OF WINDY CONDITIONS...LOW HUMIDITY...
AND WARM TEMPERATURES. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.

STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NECESSARY.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY
5 AM TUESDAY.

MBS/30