Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1223 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
CONVECTION CURRENTLY ON-GOING IN CENTRAL TENNESSEE TIED TO VERY WEAK
MESO CONVECTIVE VORTICITY CENTER WILL WORK SLOWLY EASTWARD AS GO
INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER MCV CAN BE SEEN IN LATEST SATELLITE
LOOP OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

BOYD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO DAVIDSON COUNTY WITH SCATTERED STORMS
BACK ACROSS DICKSON INTO HUMPHREYS. CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN COOLING
LAST HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTICITY CENTER. LATEST SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THIS
FEATURE SLIDING EAST PRETTY MUCH ALONG INTERSTATE 40 NEXT FEW
HOURS. RAINFALL RATES ON THE ORDER OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH PER
HOUR HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS DICKSON AND
CHEATHAM COUNTIES.

ANOTHER MCV CAN BE SEEN IN DYING COMPLEX OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
THIS ONE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR LATER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE CLOSER TO THE
KENTUCKY BORDER.

BOYD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
CLUSTER OF STORMS NOW IN DICKSON COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTNORTHEAST AND INTO CHEATHAM COUNTY BY 11 AM...AND THEN WORK
ACROSS DAVIDSON COUNTY BETWEEN 11 AND 1130 AM.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER EASTERN HUMPHREYS COUNTY HAVE RANGED FROM ONE HALF TO ONE
INCH BASED ON KOHX DUAL-POLE AS THIS CLUSTER MOVED ACROSS THAT AREA.

BOYD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
AM CONTINUING TO SEE DESCENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS NORTH HALF
OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z
BEFORE WEAKING. SOME NEW CONVECTION HAS FIRED OVER WESTERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE IN HUMPHREYS COUNTY THAT WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO
DICKSON COUNTY BY 16Z. THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE ACROSS OR CLOSE TO
THE SAME AREA THAT HAD THE HEAVIEST RAINS OVERNIGHT (NORTH CENTRAL
DAVIDSON COUNTY). CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
ALONG UPPER CUMBERLAND WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EASTNORTHEAST THIS
MORNING.

BOYD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
SHOWERS/STORMS BEGINNING TO PULL AWAY FROM DAVIDSON...SUMNER AND
WILSON COUNTIES BUT RUNOFF INTO CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE AXIS EXTENDS DOWN
INTERSTATE 65 AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS.
THIS SHOULD SWEEP BULK OF CURRENT CONVECTION TOWARD UPPER
CUMBERLAND AND OFF THE PLATEAU BY AROUND 16Z. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING AND WORK
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY.

BOYD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013/

AVIATION 12Z DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE MID STATE THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE TAF PD. WITH THE HIGH SFC DEW POINTS AND
HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS IN PLACE...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD ON AN OFF AND ON BASIS. CIGS AT TIMES WILL DROP
BELOW 2KFT WITH VSBYS AS LOW AS 2-4SM WHEN THE CONVECTION OCCURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
DOWN INTO THE PLAINS. AIRMASS AHEAD REMAINS PLENTY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH BITS OF ENERGY PASSING
PERIODICALLY IN ML/UL N/NW FLOW WILL BE KEY PLAYERS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FRONT EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD TODAY...SETTING
UP ACROSS KY...AND THEN REMAINS IN THAT GENERAL VICINITY THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING DOWN AND HOLDING OVER THE MID-STATE.
UVV EXPECTED TO BE ENHANCED AS SERIES OF WEAK WAVES RIDES UP ALONG
BOUNDARY AND COMBINES WITH PASSING ML/UL IMPULSES. MODERATE/DEEP
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND GIVEN SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE
FEATURES...CURRENT TREND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERE POTENTIAL OF STORMS
REMAINS ON LOW SIDE BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING VERY POSSIBLE AS
TRAINING AFFECTS ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY QUITE FEASIBLE.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEEMS TO WORK BACK NORTH INTO KY LATE SUNDAY AS
ML/UL FLOW REMAINS MORE WESTERLY BUT SECONDARY FRONT DROPS OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES. KY BOUNDARY LOOKS TO WASH OUT LATER MONDAY WHILE
SECONDARY BOUNDARY BECOMES DOMINANT. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS MONDAY-
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL PUSH THIS FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER
TUESDAY. BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL MS/AL/GA
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. PASSING BOUNDARY WILL KEEP PCPN CHANCES
FAIRLY HIGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CHANCES WILL BE REDUCED MID-WEEK
WITH FOCUS SHIFTED SOUTH.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
540 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-091030-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
540 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AT
TIMES...PRODUCING GUSTY WIND AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. STRONGER
STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
106 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

TNZ093-094-081900-
LAWRENCE-WAYNE-
106 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LAWRENCE AND EASTERN WAYNE
COUNTIES...

AT 100 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES WEST OF LAWRENCEBURG...MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE LEOMA...LAWRENCEBURG AND ETHRIDGE.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3514 8765 3533 8766 3542 8722 3530 8721
      3529 8723 3529 8721 3521 8722 3521 8721
      3517 8722 3516 8720 3513 8720 3512 8721
      3508 8722

SHAMBURGER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
130 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

TNZ062>064-075-077-078-081915-
BEDFORD-CANNON-COFFEE-DE KALB-RUTHERFORD-WARREN-
130 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BEDFORD...CANNON...COFFEE...DE
KALB...EASTERN RUTHERFORD AND WARREN COUNTIES...

AT 125 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MILTON TO NEAR
SHELBYVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE MILTON...READYVILLE...DEASON...
FOSTERVILLE...CHRISTIANA...BELL BUCKLE...AUBURNTOWN...WARTRACE...
BRADYVILLE...WOODBURY...BEECHGROVE AND SMITHVILLE.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3553 8658 3597 8627 3596 8566 3590 8564
      3589 8567 3588 8564 3585 8567 3585 8563
      3583 8568 3579 8560 3576 8561 3575 8560
      3562 8560 3553 8556 3553 8571 3550 8582
      3552 8588 3540 8589

SHAMBURGER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
132 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

TNZ005-081915-
STEWART-
132 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STEWART COUNTY...

AT 130 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM AURORA TO
SPRINGVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES...DOVER...
BIG ROCK...INDIAN MOUND AND CUMBERLAND CITY.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3667 8786 3664 8784 3664 8764 3637 8759
      3637 8771 3634 8775 3633 8781 3636 8800
      3644 8807 3649 8806 3654 8804 3667 8808
      3668 8799

SHAMBURGER

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