Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1138 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO DAVIDSON COUNTY WITH SCATTERED STORMS
BACK ACROSS DICKSON INTO HUMPHREYS. CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN COOLING
LAST HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTICITY CENTER. LATEST SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THIS
FEATURE SLIDING EAST PRETTY MUCH ALONG INTERSTATE 40 NEXT FEW
HOURS. RAINFALL RATES ON THE ORDER OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH PER
HOUR HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS DICKSON AND
CHEATHAM COUNTIES.

ANOTHER MCV CAN BE SEEN IN DYING COMPLEX OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
THIS ONE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR LATER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE CLOSER TO THE
KENTUCKY BORDER.

BOYD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
CLUSTER OF STORMS NOW IN DICKSON COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTNORTHEAST AND INTO CHEATHAM COUNTY BY 11 AM...AND THEN WORK
ACROSS DAVIDSON COUNTY BETWEEN 11 AND 1130 AM.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER EASTERN HUMPHREYS COUNTY HAVE RANGED FROM ONE HALF TO ONE
INCH BASED ON KOHX DUAL-POLE AS THIS CLUSTER MOVED ACROSS THAT AREA.

BOYD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
AM CONTINUING TO SEE DESCENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS NORTH HALF
OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z
BEFORE WEAKING. SOME NEW CONVECTION HAS FIRED OVER WESTERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE IN HUMPHREYS COUNTY THAT WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO
DICKSON COUNTY BY 16Z. THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE ACROSS OR CLOSE TO
THE SAME AREA THAT HAD THE HEAVIEST RAINS OVERNIGHT (NORTH CENTRAL
DAVIDSON COUNTY). CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
ALONG UPPER CUMBERLAND WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EASTNORTHEAST THIS
MORNING.

BOYD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
SHOWERS/STORMS BEGINNING TO PULL AWAY FROM DAVIDSON...SUMNER AND
WILSON COUNTIES BUT RUNOFF INTO CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE AXIS EXTENDS DOWN
INTERSTATE 65 AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS.
THIS SHOULD SWEEP BULK OF CURRENT CONVECTION TOWARD UPPER
CUMBERLAND AND OFF THE PLATEAU BY AROUND 16Z. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING AND WORK
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY.

BOYD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013/

AVIATION 12Z DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE MID STATE THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE TAF PD. WITH THE HIGH SFC DEW POINTS AND
HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS IN PLACE...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD ON AN OFF AND ON BASIS. CIGS AT TIMES WILL DROP
BELOW 2KFT WITH VSBYS AS LOW AS 2-4SM WHEN THE CONVECTION OCCURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
DOWN INTO THE PLAINS. AIRMASS AHEAD REMAINS PLENTY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH BITS OF ENERGY PASSING
PERIODICALLY IN ML/UL N/NW FLOW WILL BE KEY PLAYERS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FRONT EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD TODAY...SETTING
UP ACROSS KY...AND THEN REMAINS IN THAT GENERAL VICINITY THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING DOWN AND HOLDING OVER THE MID-STATE.
UVV EXPECTED TO BE ENHANCED AS SERIES OF WEAK WAVES RIDES UP ALONG
BOUNDARY AND COMBINES WITH PASSING ML/UL IMPULSES. MODERATE/DEEP
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND GIVEN SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE
FEATURES...CURRENT TREND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERE POTENTIAL OF STORMS
REMAINS ON LOW SIDE BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING VERY POSSIBLE AS
TRAINING AFFECTS ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY QUITE FEASIBLE.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEEMS TO WORK BACK NORTH INTO KY LATE SUNDAY AS
ML/UL FLOW REMAINS MORE WESTERLY BUT SECONDARY FRONT DROPS OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES. KY BOUNDARY LOOKS TO WASH OUT LATER MONDAY WHILE
SECONDARY BOUNDARY BECOMES DOMINANT. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS MONDAY-
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL PUSH THIS FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER
TUESDAY. BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL MS/AL/GA
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. PASSING BOUNDARY WILL KEEP PCPN CHANCES
FAIRLY HIGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CHANCES WILL BE REDUCED MID-WEEK
WITH FOCUS SHIFTED SOUTH.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
540 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-091030-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
540 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AT
TIMES...PRODUCING GUSTY WIND AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. STRONGER
STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1037 AM CDT THU AUG 08 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 WSW MOUNT JULIET      36.19N  86.57W
08/08/2013  M5.15 INCH       WILSON             TN   COCORAHS

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1300646

11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1048 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

TNZ025>027-059-081645-
CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-DICKSON-WILLIAMSON-
1048 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEATHAM...DAVIDSON...DICKSON AND
WILLIAMSON COUNTIES...

AT 1045 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CHEATHAM
DAM TO BURNS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE DICKSON...CHARLOTTE...BURNS...
WHITE BLUFF...CHEATHAM DAM...FAIRVIEW...KINGSTON SPRINGS...
PEGRAM...ASHLAND CITY..FRANKLIN...BRENTWOOD...JOELTON...BELLEVUE
AND NASHVILLE.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...AND RAINFALL
RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3638 8673 3634 8672 3632 8669 3589 8672
      3598 8738 3632 8742 3631 8730 3637 8725
      3637 8697 3639 8690 3635 8682 3641 8675

SHAMBURGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1119 AM CDT THU AUG 08 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MADISON                 36.26N  86.71W
08/08/2013                   DAVIDSON           TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HOME SWEPT AWAY BY FLOOD WATERS ON MADISON BLVD

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1300647

11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1130 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

TNZ057-059-060-081730-
HICKMAN-MAURY-WILLIAMSON-
1130 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN HICKMAN...MAURY AND
WILLIAMSON COUNTIES...

AT 1126 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PRIMM SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT
20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE WILLIAMSPORT...SANTA FE...
THOMPSONS STATION...SPRING HILL AND FRANKLIN.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3567 8740 3583 8743 3600 8681 3570 8681
      3564 8682 3560 8682 3560 8683

SHAMBURGER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1143 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

TNZ007-008-027-028-081745-
DAVIDSON-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-WILSON-
1143 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN DAVIDSON...SOUTHERN
ROBERTSON...SUMNER AND NORTHERN WILSON COUNTIES...

AT 1143 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR JOELTON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE JOELTON...WHITES CREEK...
GREENBRIER...RIDGETOP...MADISON...GOODLETTSVILLE...MILLERSVILLE...OLD
HICKORY...WHITE HOUSE...HENDERSONVILLE...COTTONTOWN AND GALLATIN.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3636 8628 3635 8629 3635 8627 3620 8626
      3625 8690 3633 8692 3637 8691 3643 8692
      3659 8630

SHAMBURGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1151 AM CDT THU AUG 08 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 AM     TSTM WND DMG     6 NE ASHLAND CITY       36.34N  86.98W
08/08/2013                   CHEATHAM           TN   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ALONG BEARWALLOW ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1300648

11