River Flood Advisory 76, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
532 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

.AVIATION 12Z DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE MID STATE THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE TAF PD. WITH THE HIGH SFC DEW POINTS AND
HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS IN PLACE...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD ON AN OFF AND ON BASIS. CIGS AT TIMES WILL DROP
BELOW 2KFT WITH VSBYS AS LOW AS 2-4SM WHEN THE CONVECTION OCCURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
DOWN INTO THE PLAINS. AIRMASS AHEAD REMAINS PLENTY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH BITS OF ENERGY PASSING
PERIODICALLY IN ML/UL N/NW FLOW WILL BE KEY PLAYERS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FRONT EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD TODAY...SETTING
UP ACROSS KY...AND THEN REMAINS IN THAT GENERAL VICINITY THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING DOWN AND HOLDING OVER THE MID-STATE.
UVV EXPECTED TO BE ENHANCED AS SERIES OF WEAK WAVES RIDES UP ALONG
BOUNDARY AND COMBINES WITH PASSING ML/UL IMPULSES. MODERATE/DEEP
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND GIVEN SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE
FEATURES...CURRENT TREND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERE POTENTIAL OF STORMS
REMAINS ON LOW SIDE BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING VERY POSSIBLE AS
TRAINING AFFECTS ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY QUITE FEASIBLE.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEEMS TO WORK BACK NORTH INTO KY LATE SUNDAY AS
ML/UL FLOW REMAINS MORE WESTERLY BUT SECONDARY FRONT DROPS OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES. KY BOUNDARY LOOKS TO WASH OUT LATER MONDAY WHILE
SECONDARY BOUNDARY BECOMES DOMINANT. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS MONDAY-
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL PUSH THIS FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER
TUESDAY. BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL MS/AL/GA
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. PASSING BOUNDARY WILL KEEP PCPN CHANCES
FAIRLY HIGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CHANCES WILL BE REDUCED MID-WEEK
WITH FOCUS SHIFTED SOUTH.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
540 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-091030-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
540 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AT
TIMES...PRODUCING GUSTY WIND AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. STRONGER
STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

07