Areal Flood Warning 1, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
529 AM CST MON FEB 11 2013

...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)..FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI...THROUGH
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 4 AM CST...THIS
BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF OUR CWFA.
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXITING
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT ADDITIONAL NUMEROUS
TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI...AND
ARE MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WHERE
STORM TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SAGGING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD TODAY...AND SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE ALL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUAL DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWFA AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. GIVEN THE EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA...AND THE EXPECTATION THAT HEAVY RAINS WILL
BECOME FOCUSED FARTHER SOUTH WITH TIME ALONG THE BOUNDARY TODAY...WE
HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO ENCOMPASS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWFA THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER 6 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS TO BE MUCH LOWER
TODAY...AS INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE ELEVATED...AND BECOMING MORE
FOCUSED NEAR THE COAST. WE WILL STILL HAVE PLENTIFUL DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...SO ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
STALLS NEAR THE COAST...AND ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES REMAIN TRENDED
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

ONE LAST MINUTE ADDITION...DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED INLAND ACROSS
BALDWIN...MOBILE...STONE AND GEORGE COUNTIES AND WE WILL ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 9 AM CST. /21

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MOVES QUICKLY EAST...WHILST THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT
FORMED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SWINGS EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS TO OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...OPENING AS IT MOVES EAST. AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY...IT FORMS A SURFACE LOW OVER
THE TX GULF COAST...THEN TAKES IT NE ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
PATH THE SURFACE LOW TAKES HELP TO SLOW DOWN THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
AS IT MOVES OVER THE FA WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE FORECAST...AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE FA TUESDAY...
THE BOUNDARY THAT STALLS ALONG THE GULF COAST TONIGHT RETREATS NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER
THE SE-ERN HALF OF THE FA ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...WITH CAPES FROM
MODIFIED SOUNDINGS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TOPPING OUT AROUND
500J/KG...ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HELICITY IS DECENT...AROUND
150M^2/S^2...SO THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A ROWDY THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO ATTM. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR POSSIBLE INCREASE IN
THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY OF THE SURFACE LOW TAKES A
PATH FARTHER WEST. FOR TEMPS HAVE WENT WITH A MAV/ET BLEND FOR
TEMPS...WHILST BUMPING UP THE POPS UP A BIT FROM GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON)...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC STALLS
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE NOW OPEN WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...THOUGH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEX/S-RN MEX. THIS DRIES OUT THE FA. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE LOW END
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE MEX GUIDANCE AS OUT TO LUNCH. FOR
TEMPS...ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT....SO HAVEN'T
DEVIATED.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS SET UP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
QUARTER OF THE CONUS. THIS SOUTHWARD DIVING ENERGY PUSHES ANOTHER
FRONT TOWARDS THE FA. GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH TEMPS...DO
DIDN'T DEVIATE AS FEEL THEY ARE IN PRETTY GOOD ORDER. GFS MEX POPS
CONTINUE BE TO HIGH...SO HAVE CUT THEM DOWN TOWARDS THE ECMWF.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GUIDANCE PUSHES THE RE-ENFORCING
FRONT ACROSS THE FA WITH LITTLE FAN-FARE OTHER THAN TO BRING IN
COOLER TEMPS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE SHORTWAVE IN THE EASTERN TROUGH
DIVES SOUTH...AS MORE ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...
DRAWING/PUSHING A SURFACE HIGH EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
THIS RESTORES ONSHORE FLOW BY MONDAY. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE ON THE
INCREASE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHRA
INCREASING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY
AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...[12Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...
IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY.
SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND IMPACT THE LOCAL TERMINALS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AND INTO TONIGHT. /21

&&

.MARINE...WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS AND
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. DENSE MARINE
FOG WILL IMPACT MOBILE BAY THROUGH MID MORNING...AND A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 9 AM CST.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY...AND WILL SLOW
AS IT MOVES JUST OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION OVER INLAND
BAYS AND SOUNDS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL REDEVELOP AND INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT. A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. /21

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
STALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT. NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
AREA ALONG WITH LOW MIXING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTH ACROSS THE FA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW PASSES OVER NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FA...WITH ONSHORE FLOW BEING RESTORED OVER SE-RN SECTIONS OF THE
FA FOR A PERIOD...BUT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE
MIXING LAYER WILL USHER IN COOLER...DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      68  52  62  58  67 /  80  80  70  90  60
PENSACOLA   70  53  63  60  70 /  70  60  60  90  70
DESTIN      69  54  63  61  68 /  70  60  60  90  70
EVERGREEN   68  50  59  53  67 /  80  80  80  90  70
WAYNESBORO  60  49  57  51  63 /  80  80  90  70  30
CAMDEN      64  48  56  50  65 /  80  80  90  90  50
CRESTVIEW   71  53  62  56  69 /  70  70  60  90  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...

&&

21/16

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1212 PM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-111300-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
1212 PM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...THOUGH HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES
MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE
65...WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 3
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXCESSIVE RAINS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS...AS WELL AS FLOODING OF RIVERS...CREEKS...AND
STREAMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY
BE REQUESTED.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-111300-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1212 PM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WIND GUSTS...LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES AND SEAS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY RAINFALL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE MARINE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEAR A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING FRONT MAY
BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT WEDNESDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1240 AM CST MON FEB 11 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     HEAVY RAIN       GROVE HILL              31.71N 87.77W
02/11/2013  M5.36 INCH       CLARKE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CLARKE COUNTY EMA REPORTS 5.36 INCHES OF STORM TOTAL
            RAINFALL AS OF MIDNIGHT CST IN GROVE HILL.

1205 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GROVE HILL              31.71N 87.77W
02/11/2013                   CLARKE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CLARKE COUNTY EMA REPORTS 5-6 INCHES OF WATER OVER
            ROADWAYS IN GROVE HILL.

1205 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GROVE HILL              31.71N 87.77W
02/11/2013                   CLARKE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CLARKE COUNTY EMA REPORTED A 50 YARD WIDE AREA OF FAST
            MOVING WATER OVER OLD GROVE HILL ROAD.

1205 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CAMPBELL                31.92N 87.98W
02/11/2013                   CLARKE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CLARKE COUNTY EMA REPORTED PORTIONS OF BLACKSMITH RD WERE
            WASHED OUT NEAR CAMPBELL.

&&

CL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
210 AM CST MON FEB 11 2013

ALZ051-053-110900-
CHOCTAW AL-CLARKE AL-
210 AM CST MON FEB 11 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN CHOCTAW AND NORTHERN
CLARKE COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THROUGH 300 AM CST...

AT 210 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
MONITORING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM THAT WAS LOCATED 21 MILES SOUTH OF
BUTLER...OR 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF SILAS...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  TOXEY...              SILAS...              GILBERTOWN...
  THOMASVILLE...        FULTON...             COFFEEVILLE...

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55
MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BLOW OFF TREE LIMBS AND ALSO BLOW
AROUND SMALL UNSECURED OBJECTS. PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND VERY HEAVY RAINS CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED. SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
217 AM CST MON FEB 11 2013

MSZ067-075-076-110900-
WAYNE MS-PERRY MS-GREENE MS-
217 AM CST MON FEB 11 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WAYNE...NORTHERN PERRY AND
NORTHERN GREENE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...THROUGH 300 AM
CST...

AT 216 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
MONITORING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE LOCATED FROM 11 MILES
NORTHWEST OF RICHTON...TO NEAR WAYNESBORO...AND MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WAYNESBORO...         STATE LINE...         CLARA...
  BUCKATUNNA...         RICHTON...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55
MPH...PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND VERY
HEAVY RAIN. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BLOW OFF TREE LIMBS AND ALSO
BLOW AROUND SMALL UNSECURED OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THIS STORM
HAS PASSED.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
258 AM CST MON FEB 11 2013

ALZ051-052-110930-
CHOCTAW AL-WASHINGTON AL-
258 AM CST MON FEB 11 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN CHOCTAW AND
NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THROUGH 330 AM
CST...

AT 255 AM CST...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WERE LOCATED FROM 5 MILES
NORTHEAST OF MILLRY...TO 9 MILES WEST OF CHATOM...AND WERE MOVING
EAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  TOXEY...              SILAS...              GILBERTOWN...
  MILLRY...             CHATOM...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55
MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BLOW OFF TREE LIMBS AND ALSO BLOW
AROUND SMALL UNSECURED OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THIS STORM HAS
PASSED.

SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND VERY HEAVY RAINS WILL
ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. SEEK SAFE SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THESE
STORMS HAVE PASSED.

&&

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