River Flood Warning 18, NWS Mobile, AL

898 
WGUS84 KMOB 111610
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
1010 AM CST MON FEB 11 2013
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN MISSISSIPPI...
ALABAMA...FLORIDA...
 
  TALLAHALA CREEK NEAR RUNNELSTOWN AFFECTING PERRY COUNTY. 
  TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR COFFEEVILLE DAM AFFECTING CHOCTAW...CLARKE AND WASHINGTON 
  COUNTIES. 
  TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR LEROY AFFECTING CHOCTAW...CLARKE AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. 
  ALABAMA RIVER NEAR CLAIBORNE DAM AFFECTING CLARKE...MONROE AND WILCOX COUNTIES.
  
  ESCAMBIA RIVER NEAR CENTURY AFFECTING ESCAMBIA COUNTY. 
  CHICKASAWHAY AT LEAKESVILLE AFFECTING GEORGE...GREENE AND WAYNE COUNTIES. 
.
 
  MURDER CREEK AT BREWTON AFFECTING ESCAMBIA COUNTY. 
  ALABAMA RIVER NEAR MILLERS FERRY DAM AFFECTING DALLAS...MONROE AND WILCOX 
  COUNTIES. 
  CONECUH RIVER AT BREWTON AFFECTING COVINGTON AND ESCAMBIA COUNTIES. 
  SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW AFFECTING OKALOOSA COUNTY. 
  LEAF NEAR MCLAIN AFFECTING GEORGE...GREENE AND PERRY COUNTIES. 
  PASCAGOULA AT MERRILL AFFECTING GEORGE...GREENE AND JACKSON COUNTIES. 

.RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THESE RIVERS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

MSC039-041-111-121610-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0017.130212T0130Z-000000T0000Z/
/MCLM6.2.ER.130212T0130Z.130214T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1010 AM CST MON FEB 11 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE LEAF NEAR MCLAIN
* FROM THIS EVENING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
* AT 9AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.1 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO 
  NEAR 25.5 FEET BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.


$$

ALC053-121610-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0018.130212T2120Z-130214T1708Z/
/BWMA1.1.ER.130212T2120Z.130213T1800Z.130214T1108Z.NO/
1010 AM CST MON FEB 11 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MURDER CREEK AT BREWTON
* FROM TOMORROW AFTERNOON UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING
* AT 8AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.8 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO RISE 
  TO NEAR 23.3 FEET BY WEDNESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY MORNING.


$$

MSC111-121610-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-130213T0600Z/
/RNTM6.1.ER.130211T1800Z.130212T0600Z.130213T0000Z.UU/
1010 AM CST MON FEB 11 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES
FOR
  THE TALLAHALA CREEK NEAR RUNNELSTOWN
* FROM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
* AT 9AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 20.7 FEET 
* NONFLOOD FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 21 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO 
  NEAR 22 FEET BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD 
  STAGE BY TOMORROW EVENING.
* AT 21 FEET, LOWLAND FLOODING BEGINS.  

$$

ALC023-025-129-121610-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0011.130211T2317Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.130211T2317Z.130214T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1010 AM CST MON FEB 11 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR COFFEEVILLE DAM
* FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
* AT 9AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.8 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 29 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO RISE
  TO NEAR 34.5 FEET BY THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.

$$

ALC023-025-129-121610-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0012.130212T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.130212T0000Z.130214T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1010 AM CST MON FEB 11 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR LEROY
* FROM THIS EVENING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
* AT 9AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.8 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO 
  NEAR 28.2 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING.

$$

ALC047-099-131-121609-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0019.130212T2130Z-130215T0815Z/
/MRFA1.1.ER.130212T2130Z.130214T0000Z.130215T0215Z.NO/
1010 AM CST MON FEB 11 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALABAMA RIVER NEAR MILLERS FERRY DAM
* FROM TOMORROW AFTERNOON UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
* AT 9AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 56.8 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 66 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO RISE 
  TO NEAR 68.6 FEET BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  BY THURSDAY EVENING.


$$

ALC025-099-131-121609-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0015.130213T0730Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLBA1.1.ER.130213T0730Z.130215T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1010 AM CST MON FEB 11 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALABAMA RIVER NEAR CLAIBORNE DAM
* FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
* AT 9AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 35.5 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 42 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 44.7 FEET BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

$$

ALC039-053-121609-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0020.130216T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BWTA1.1.ER.130216T0000Z.130216T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1010 AM CST MON FEB 11 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONECUH RIVER AT BREWTON
* FROM FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
* AT 9AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.5 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 27 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO 
  NEAR 27 FEET BY FRIDAY EVENING.


$$

ALC053-FLC033-121609-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0014.130213T0800Z-000000T0000Z/
/CTYF1.1.ER.130213T0800Z.130216T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1010 AM CST MON FEB 11 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ESCAMBIA RIVER NEAR CENTURY
* FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
* AT 9AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.5 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 20.4 FEET BY THURSDAY EVENING.

$$

FLC091-121609-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0021.130213T2000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.130213T2000Z.130214T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1010 AM CST MON FEB 11 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW
* FROM WEDNESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
* AT 9AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 5 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE 
  TO RISE TO NEAR 8.6 FEET BY THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.


$$

MSC039-041-153-121609-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0013.130211T2328Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.130211T2328Z.130213T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1010 AM CST MON FEB 11 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CHICKASAWHAY AT LEAKESVILLE
* FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
* AT 9AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.5 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO RISE
  TO NEAR 27.5 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING.

$$

MSC039-041-059-121609-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0022.130213T0430Z-000000T0000Z/
/MRRM6.1.ER.130213T0430Z.130216T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1010 AM CST MON FEB 11 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PASCAGOULA AT MERRILL
* FROM TOMORROW LATE EVENING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
* AT 9AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.7 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW LATE EVENING AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 24.5 FEET BY FRIDAY EVENING.


$$

233 
WGUS84 KMOB 120221
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
821 PM CST MON FEB 11 2013
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ALABAMA...
 
  MURDER CREEK AT BREWTON AFFECTING ESCAMBIA COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

ALC053-120251-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-130214T1708Z/
/BWMA1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
821 PM CST MON FEB 11 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE MURDER CREEK AT BREWTON
* AT 7PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.5 FEET 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
529 AM CST MON FEB 11 2013

...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)..FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI...THROUGH
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 4 AM CST...THIS
BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF OUR CWFA.
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXITING
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT ADDITIONAL NUMEROUS
TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI...AND
ARE MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WHERE
STORM TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SAGGING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD TODAY...AND SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE ALL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUAL DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWFA AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. GIVEN THE EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA...AND THE EXPECTATION THAT HEAVY RAINS WILL
BECOME FOCUSED FARTHER SOUTH WITH TIME ALONG THE BOUNDARY TODAY...WE
HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO ENCOMPASS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWFA THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER 6 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS TO BE MUCH LOWER
TODAY...AS INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE ELEVATED...AND BECOMING MORE
FOCUSED NEAR THE COAST. WE WILL STILL HAVE PLENTIFUL DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...SO ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
STALLS NEAR THE COAST...AND ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES REMAIN TRENDED
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

ONE LAST MINUTE ADDITION...DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED INLAND ACROSS
BALDWIN...MOBILE...STONE AND GEORGE COUNTIES AND WE WILL ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 9 AM CST. /21

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MOVES QUICKLY EAST...WHILST THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT
FORMED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SWINGS EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS TO OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...OPENING AS IT MOVES EAST. AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY...IT FORMS A SURFACE LOW OVER
THE TX GULF COAST...THEN TAKES IT NE ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
PATH THE SURFACE LOW TAKES HELP TO SLOW DOWN THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
AS IT MOVES OVER THE FA WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE FORECAST...AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE FA TUESDAY...
THE BOUNDARY THAT STALLS ALONG THE GULF COAST TONIGHT RETREATS NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER
THE SE-ERN HALF OF THE FA ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...WITH CAPES FROM
MODIFIED SOUNDINGS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TOPPING OUT AROUND
500J/KG...ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HELICITY IS DECENT...AROUND
150M^2/S^2...SO THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A ROWDY THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO ATTM. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR POSSIBLE INCREASE IN
THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY OF THE SURFACE LOW TAKES A
PATH FARTHER WEST. FOR TEMPS HAVE WENT WITH A MAV/ET BLEND FOR
TEMPS...WHILST BUMPING UP THE POPS UP A BIT FROM GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON)...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC STALLS
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE NOW OPEN WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...THOUGH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEX/S-RN MEX. THIS DRIES OUT THE FA. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE LOW END
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE MEX GUIDANCE AS OUT TO LUNCH. FOR
TEMPS...ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT....SO HAVEN'T
DEVIATED.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS SET UP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
QUARTER OF THE CONUS. THIS SOUTHWARD DIVING ENERGY PUSHES ANOTHER
FRONT TOWARDS THE FA. GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH TEMPS...DO
DIDN'T DEVIATE AS FEEL THEY ARE IN PRETTY GOOD ORDER. GFS MEX POPS
CONTINUE BE TO HIGH...SO HAVE CUT THEM DOWN TOWARDS THE ECMWF.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GUIDANCE PUSHES THE RE-ENFORCING
FRONT ACROSS THE FA WITH LITTLE FAN-FARE OTHER THAN TO BRING IN
COOLER TEMPS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE SHORTWAVE IN THE EASTERN TROUGH
DIVES SOUTH...AS MORE ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...
DRAWING/PUSHING A SURFACE HIGH EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
THIS RESTORES ONSHORE FLOW BY MONDAY. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE ON THE
INCREASE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHRA
INCREASING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY
AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...[12Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...
IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY.
SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND IMPACT THE LOCAL TERMINALS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AND INTO TONIGHT. /21

&&

.MARINE...WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS AND
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. DENSE MARINE
FOG WILL IMPACT MOBILE BAY THROUGH MID MORNING...AND A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 9 AM CST.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY...AND WILL SLOW
AS IT MOVES JUST OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION OVER INLAND
BAYS AND SOUNDS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL REDEVELOP AND INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT. A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. /21

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
STALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT. NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
AREA ALONG WITH LOW MIXING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTH ACROSS THE FA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW PASSES OVER NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FA...WITH ONSHORE FLOW BEING RESTORED OVER SE-RN SECTIONS OF THE
FA FOR A PERIOD...BUT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE
MIXING LAYER WILL USHER IN COOLER...DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      68  52  62  58  67 /  80  80  70  90  60
PENSACOLA   70  53  63  60  70 /  70  60  60  90  70
DESTIN      69  54  63  61  68 /  70  60  60  90  70
EVERGREEN   68  50  59  53  67 /  80  80  80  90  70
WAYNESBORO  60  49  57  51  63 /  80  80  90  70  30
CAMDEN      64  48  56  50  65 /  80  80  90  90  50
CRESTVIEW   71  53  62  56  69 /  70  70  60  90  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...

&&

21/16

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION TO ADD FOG
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
636 AM CST MON FEB 11 2013

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-121200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
636 AM CST MON FEB 11 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AS A FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...REACHING THE COUNTIES
ALONG THE COAST BY EVENING. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS EVEN
HIGHER. OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS RANGING FROM NORTHERN PERRY
COUNTY...MISSISSIPPI TO WILCOX AND MONROE COUNTIES IN ALABAMA WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE WITH FLOODING PROBLEMS. AS THE FRONT
AND RAIN SAG SOUTH TODAY...THE PROBLEM WITH FLOODING WILL SPREAD
SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

DENSE FOG OCCURRING OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA WILL BEING TO RISE
AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
FLOODING PROBLEMS CONTINUING AS SOILS BECOME SATURATED OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE WATER IN THE SOILS
DRAIN INTO LOCAL CREEKS AND RIVERS...ALREADY HIGH STREAMS AND RIVERS
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE EVEN HIGHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY
BE REQUESTED.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-121200-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
636 AM CST MON FEB 11 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS A FRONT SAGS SOUTH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS REDUCING VISIBILITIES...ALONG WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS CREATING HIGHER SEAS AND WAVES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE MARINE AREA TUESDAY NEAR A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING FRONT MAY BRING
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
822 AM CST MON FEB 11 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 AM     DOWNBURST        THOMASVILLE             31.91N 87.74W
02/11/2013                   CLARKE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WIND DAMAGE TO TWO HOMES ON CRESTVIEW ROAD IN
            THOMASVILLE. REPORTED BY CALRKE COOUNTY EMA

0600 AM     HEAVY RAIN       GROVE HILL              31.71N 87.77W
02/11/2013  M7.75 INCH       CLARKE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            7.75 INCHES OF RAIN REPORTED ON ALLEN RD IN GROVE HILL BY
            CLARKE COUNTY EMA.

0600 AM     HEAVY RAIN       THOMASVILLE             31.91N 87.74W
02/11/2013  M6.00 INCH       CLARKE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            6 INCHES OF RAIN REPORTED ON PEACHTREE ROAD IN
            THOMASVILLE BY CLARKE COUNTY EMA.

0600 AM     HEAVY RAIN       GROVE HILL              31.71N 87.77W
02/11/2013  M6.50 INCH       CLARKE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            6.5 INCHES OF RAIN REPORTED SO FAR ENDING 8 AM AT CLARKE
            COUNTY EMAS OFFICE IN GROVE HILL.

0600 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GROVE HILL              31.71N 87.77W
02/11/2013                   CLARKE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ST STEPHEN ROAD WASHED OUT IN GROVE HILL. REPORTED BY
            CLARKE COUNTY EMA.

0600 AM     FLASH FLOOD      THOMASVILLE             31.91N 87.74W
02/11/2013                   CLARKE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CRESTVIEW ROAD IN THOMASVILLE ROAD WASHED OUT IN
            THOMASVILLE. REPORTED BY CLARKE COUNTY EMA.

&&

SAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
944 AM CST MON FEB 11 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0942 AM     FLOOD            PACKARDS BEND           31.78N 87.49W
02/11/2013                   MONROE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL AREAS FLOODED WITH WATER AROUND 2 HOUSES.

&&

CULLEN