River Flood Warning 23, NWS Mobile, AL

193 
WGUS84 KMOB 120226
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
826 PM CST MON FEB 11 2013
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ALABAMA...
 
  MOBILE RIVER AT BARRY STEAM PLANT AFFECTING BALDWIN AND MOBILE COUNTIES.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

ALC003-097-120256-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-130212T0226Z/
/BCKA1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
826 PM CST MON FEB 11 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE MOBILE RIVER AT BARRY STEAM PLANT
* AT 8PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.6 FEET 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
330 PM CST MON FEB 11 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA/WESTERN PLAINS ADVANCES INTO THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY.  A STRONG SHORTWAVE EJECTS
FROM THIS SYSTEM AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ADVANCING EASTWARD TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  A 140+ KNOT 300 MB JET PERSISTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES MEANWHILE WITH SEVERAL OTHER LESSER EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WITH PERIODS OF ENHANCED DEEP
LAYER LIFT.  A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW
APPROACHES AND SETTING UP AN EXTENSIVE PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.  THERE APPEAR TO BE TWO PERIODS DURING WHICH DEEP
LAYER LIFT IS THE STRONGEST...THE FIRST BEING THIS EVENING WHEN THE
RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET IS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
COMBINED WITH MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 295-305K LAYER...AND
THE SECOND BEING LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO
POSSIBLY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE SURFACE LOW NEARS THE AREA.

WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINS OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AREA RESULTING IN
SATURATION SOIL CONDITIONS AND THE EXPECTED PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CURRENTLY IN EFFECT
HAS BEEN EXTENDED IN TIME THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.  HPC CURRENTLY
HAS A MODERATE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS WELL.  ONE CONCERN IS THAT 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES ARE IN
EXCESS OF 200 M2/S2 ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE
VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 400 J/KG OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
DESPITE THIS...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE EFFECTIVE
HELICITY AVAILABLE TO CONVECTION.  SO...AT THIS TIME WILL ALSO ADD
MENTION OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84 TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LET NEXT SHIFTS REASSESS.
/29

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL
MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SFC LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. SOME
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN MAY PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO CLEAR WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL BE REACHED VERY
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN DURING
THE DAY. DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS THE AREA WILL BE IN THE BASE OF AN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S FOR THE HIGHS AND LOW/MID 30S
INLAND TO LOW 40S ALONG THE COAST FOR LOWS. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL
DIVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY CAUSING THE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY AND SENDING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH
THIS FRONT DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
IT. HOWEVER...IT SERVE TO BRING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE 20S ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AND MID/UPPER 30S NEAR
THE COAST. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ZONAL THEN SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODIFY
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. /13

&&

.AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH MOB/BFM AND PER WRF-NMM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH PNS BY
21Z.  DURING THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SHOWERS.  MVFR CEILINGS WITH LIGHT RAIN WILL BE PREVAILING BY 21Z
THEN CEILINGS LOWER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TO LIFR
CONDITIONS BY 01Z.  DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN WHEN THE BEST SUPPORT FOR
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE AND FOR NOW HAVE SETTLED ON THE 03-07Z TIME
PERIOD BASED ON A GFS/ECMWF BLEND...AND DURING THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE
A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN.  WILL HAVE LOWER
VISIBILITIES AT BFM DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS BASED ON PERSISTENCE
AND GOOD SUPPORT FROM GUIDANCE.  THE SURFACE WINDS VEER TO AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION BY 15Z TUESDAY...WITH LIFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
BE PREVAILING...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO RETURN NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT...BUT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.MARINE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE MARINE
AREA WILL BECOME STATIONARY TONIGHT THEN RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT ON TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCES FROM THE WEST.
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY ON
TUESDAY AND INCREASE.  THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE MARINE AREA WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  THE OFFSHORE FLOW GRADUALLY SUBSIDES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.  A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. /29

&&

.HYDROLOGY...EXPECT THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TO SHIFT SOUTH AND
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT THE NEXT 24 H...REGION REMAINS IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG OUR COAST AND SHOULD PUSH
JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS EVENING. IMPRESSIVELY...VERY HIGH PW AIR
(1.3-1.5") IS BEING OBSERVED ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION AND WITH
ABUNDANT LOW- AND MID-TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENESIS (ALONG WITH
DEEP-LYR MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE) IN THE UPSTREAM FLOW. DEVELOPING
UPDRAFTS ARE APPARENT AS FAR WEST AS EAST TEXAS AND THESE ARE MOVING
EAST TOWARDS OUR REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE NET RESULT
IS THAT A GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL OVER A WIDE AREA
THROUGH SUNSET TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED TOTALS BETWEEN 6-8" (EXPECT
EXPANSION IN AREAL RAINFALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT). AN APPROACHING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE CURRENT COLD FRONT TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH...AND AS A
RESULT...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHWARD SLOWLY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER DEVELOPS. AGREE WITH
HPC'S ASSESSMENT OF A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THAT WILL
EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT A
CONTINUATION OF AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE
ALREADY RECEIVED HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE LAST EVENING.  NEWER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...DEPENDING ON OBSERVED 1- 3- AND 6H RAINFALL RATES
WHICH MAY PROMPT A FEW ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. AS THE RAIN
TAPERS FROM W TO E TOMORROW EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AREA RIVERS WILL
RESPOND WITH CONTINUED RISES THROUGH LATE WEEK...SOME PERHAPS
REACHING MODERATE FLOODING LEVELS IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
RESIDENTS IN THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MS COUNTIES AND CHOCTAW...CLARKE
AND MONROE COUNTIES OF ALABAMA MAY SEE ADDITIONAL WATER RISES OVER
THE NEXT DAY. THOSE RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG CREEKS AND RIVERS NEED TO
TAKE PRECAUTIONS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID
TUESDAY EVENING. /23 JMM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  66  58  64  38 / 100  90  90  40  10
PENSACOLA   57  65  62  65  42 /  80  80  90  60  20
DESTIN      57  65  64  64  47 /  80  80  90  70  20
EVERGREEN   52  62  59  63  36 / 100  80  90  50  10
WAYNESBORO  51  58  53  60  33 / 100 100  70  20  05
CAMDEN      51  57  55  61  34 / 100 100  90  50  10
CRESTVIEW   53  66  65  65  37 /  80  80  90  70  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
350 PM CST MON FEB 11 2013

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-121200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
350 PM CST MON FEB 11 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID EVENING TUESDAY.
OVER THE NEXT DAY...A GENERAL THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE ACROSS THE SAME LOCATION. THE RAIN
AREA WILL EXPAND IN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A NUMBER OF STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THEIR
BANKS.

AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION...THE AIRMASS MAY ONCE AGAIN BECOMES
UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA. THE THREAT THEN SHIFTS EAST OF I-65 AND INTO THE
NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS ALONG BOWING ECHO SEGMENTS.
GIVEN A DEEP LAYER OF CLOUDS AND RAINFALL OVERNIGHT...ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER GRADUALLY FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TOMORROW
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. AREA RIVERS WILL EXPERIENCE STEADY RISES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MANY RISING INTO THE MINOR FLOODING CATEGORY
THROUGH LATE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY
BE REQUESTED.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-121200-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
350 PM CST MON FEB 11 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NUMEROUS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES FROM SHORE...AS A
FRONT SAGS SOUTH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS REDUCING VISIBILITIES...ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS CREATING HIGHER SEAS AND WAVES. SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION FROM TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TAPERING FROM THE WEST TOMORROW NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.