Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
619 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013/

UPDATE...UPDATED TO EXPAND FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013/

CURRENTLY STORMS ARE GETTING THEIR ACT TOGETHER JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA..SO NOT MUCH TIME TO DISCUSS. LEADING
EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS SURGING INTO EAST TEXAS AND A
1000MB SURFACE LOW WAS JUST NOW ARKANSAS. TORNADO WATCH IN PLACE
FOR MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS
RIVER...WITH STRONG BACKED WINDS CURRENTLY IN THE DELTA. SEEMS
VERY PROBABLE FOR A STRONG/SIGNIFICANT TORNADO TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...AS MUCAPES MAY EXCEED 1500
J/KG. A WIND ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT TILL MIDNIGHT FOR THE AREA.

FURTHER WEST AND NORTH RAIN HAS BEEN HEAVY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
STALLED FRONT. LATEST RAIN AMOUNTS SHOW 4 TO 5 INCHES HAS ALREADY
FALLEN...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WHEN THE FLASHFLOOD WATCH EXPIRES. SOME REPORTS OF
FLOODING HAVE ALSO BEEN SENT TO THE OFFICE VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

STORM IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT LATE TONIGHT WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
DRY PUNCH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT
MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AND REMAIN BREEZY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
INTO THE MIDWEST. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MORNING HOWEVER. FOR
SUNDAY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES IN
THE EAST AND SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 40S AND 50S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES FALLING TO FREEZING FOR
POINTS NORTH OF INTERSTATE FORTY.

HOLIDAY WEEK...LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL AND DRY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE COLDEST DAY EXPECTED ON CHRISTMAS EVE...WHERE THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN COLD CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT WITH A BRIEF WARM UP ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AND ON THURSDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS
ANTICIPATED LATE THURSDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS FOR THE LAST
WEEKEND OF 2013.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH
THE BEGINNING TO MIDDLE PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. A SEVERE TSTORM
THREAT WITH POSSIBLE TORNADIC ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT MEM AND MKL
THROUGH AT LEAST 22/04Z...WITH THE THREAT SHIFTING EAST BY 22/05Z
AND AFFECTING TUP THROUGH 09Z. A MIX OF CIGS AND VSBYS RANGING
FROM VFR/MVFR/IFR AT TIMES DUE TO TSTORMS. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME AFTER 12Z AT
MEM...MKL..AND JBR...WITH TUP FOLLOWING SOMETIME AFTER 18Z
TOMORROW.

AC3

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  51  56  32  40 / 100  10  10   0
MKL  52  57  31  39 / 100  10  10   0
JBR  42  48  28  37 /  80  10  10   0
TUP  58  67  36  45 / 100  20  10   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CROCKETT-DYER-
     GIBSON-HAYWOOD-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-
     WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
     CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
502 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-230115-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
502 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF A
TIPTONVILLE TENNESSEE TO A FORREST CITY ARKANSAS LINE. THIS AREA
INCLUDES THE MAJORITY OF THE MIDSOUTH. PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE
TORNADOES... A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG...AND DAMAGING WINDS.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE A SECONDARY THREAT.

AREAS WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF TORNADOES INCLUDE SOUTHWEST
TENNESSEE...INCLUDING THE MEMPHIS METROPOLITAN AREA... EAST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND ALL OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. PEAK TORNADO
RISK TIMING WILL RANGE FROM NOW UNTIL MIDEVENING.

BEYOND MIDEVENING TO MIDNIGHT...THE TORNADO RISK WILL
DECREASE...WHILE DAMAGING WIND THREAT CONTINUES OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE.

AREAS NORTHWEST OF A TIPTONVILLE TO FORREST CITY LINE...A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF TORNADO.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THREE TO SIX INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE COMMON
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NECESSARY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
636 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SENATOBIA               34.62N 89.97W
12/21/2013                   TATE               MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREES DOWN. LOTS OF LIMBS BROKEN. ESTIMATED 50-60
            MPH WIND. POWER IS OUT.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
640 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     TSTM WND GST     GERMANTOWN              35.09N 89.79W
12/21/2013  E65 MPH          SHELBY             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GERMANTOWN PKWY AND POPLER ESTIMATED 65MPH WIND ALONG
            WITH DIME SIZE HAIL.

&&

JDS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
805 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     TSTM WND GST     CORINTH                 34.94N 88.52W
12/21/2013  M80 MPH          ALCORN             MS   STORM CHASER

            80 MPH WIND MEASURED BY A STORM CHASER. ANOTHER 68 MPH
            WIND REPORTED NEAR THE SAME LOCATION.

&&

JDS