River Flood Warning 101, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1034 AM CST SUN DEC 22 2013

.UPDATE...

AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH HANGS BACK
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AS OF MID MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A
COLD FRONT WAS STRETCHED ACROSS THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL ACROSS
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS BACK INTO THE ARKLATEX AS OF 16Z. UPPER LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTWARD MOVING TROUGH HAS SUPPORTED
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
ACROSS THE LINGERING HIGHER DEWPOINT AIRMASS. SHOWERS SHOULD
CONTINUE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS
EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO REFLECT ONGOING TRENDS AND
ANTICIPATED CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
OVERALL WERE FAIRLY CLOSE AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CST SUN DEC 22 2013/

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST SUN DEC 22 2013/

DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS WEEK.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY TODAY...WITH MOISTURE EMBEDDED
IN A SHALLOW ELEVATED POST FRONTAL THERMAL INVERSION. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND ADDITIONAL PUSH OF COOLER AIR THIS AFTERNOON...
HAVE UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES.

CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR THIS EVENING... AS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES
TO SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DROP FROM
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON
MONDAY...LIKELY BRINGING INCREASED MIDLEVEL CLOUDS TO THE MIDSOUTH.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY TUESDAY... AS
THE CENTER OF THE 1038MB ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES INTO THE MIDSOUTH.
DESPITE SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY... HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB
OUT THE 30S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR.

A MORE POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL PASS OFF TO THE NORTH...WITH
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE FOR THE MIDSOUTH OTHER THAN A REINFORCEMENT OF
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A BRIEF TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN WILL LIKELY OCCUR THE EARLY WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND MILDER TEMPS.

LOOKING BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECAST...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BRING A RETURN OF NORTHWEST FLOW AND
AN ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO THE MIDSOUTH LATE SUNDAY...
INTO THE FOLLOWING MONDAY.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF FORECAST AS MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON WHEN LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIFT. HAVE GONE MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST KEEPING IFR/MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. W WINDS
AROUND 8 KTS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AT 10-12 KTS BY THIS EVENING.

KRM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  57  30  39  24 /  30  10   0   0
MKL  57  31  38  22 /  30  10   0   0
JBR  48  28  36  20 /  10  10  10   0
TUP  63  36  45  24 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
303 AM CST SUN DEC 22 2013

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-231115-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
303 AM CST SUN DEC 22 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

PWB