Tornado Warning 44, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
203 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...HIGH SHEAR...AND INSTABILITY
PRESENT. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...AND A TORNADO WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 02Z. SOME STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL...GIVEN THE SLOW MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR...AND
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER.

ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY TRANSLATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...DIMINISHING A BIT AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES
THROUGH...AND THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. THESE WILL MOST LIKELY
AFFECT NORTHERN ARKANSAS.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF BREAK DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...
COLD FRONT WILL START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THE
NORTHWEST. DUE TO ALREADY WET GROUND...THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
EXPECTED COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE...WITH HIGHER TOTALS OF FIVE INCHES OR MORE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH MID DAY SATURDAY. IF MODEL TRENDS ARE ANY INDICATION...
THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD A BIT IN THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS MID DAY INTO
LATE SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING. WHILE LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL IS A POSSIBILITY THEN...IT/S NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
WIDESPREAD.

FRONT SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY LATE SATURDAY...WITH COOLER WEATHER IN
THE OFFING.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     70  81  71  81 /  60  30  50  70
CAMDEN AR         70  85  71  88 /  50  10  20  60
HARRISON AR       67  82  68  78 /  60  30  80  80
HOT SPRINGS AR    71  85  73  83 /  50  10  20  70
LITTLE ROCK   AR  71  86  72  84 /  40  20  20  70
MONTICELLO AR     72  90  73  89 /  30  10  20  60
MOUNT IDA AR      72  84  74  83 /  50  10  30  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  68  82  68  81 /  60  30  80  80
NEWPORT AR        71  83  71  81 /  60  30  30  70
PINE BLUFF AR     71  85  72  85 /  30  10  20  70
RUSSELLVILLE AR   70  83  71  81 /  50  20  50  80
SEARCY AR         70  83  70  82 /  50  20  30  70
STUTTGART AR      71  85  72  86 /  40  20  20  70
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR BAXTER-BOONE-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY.
&&

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...62

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
335 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-311000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
335 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THERE IS A THREAT FOR
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IN WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL SECTIONS...
THROUGH 9 PM. ALSO... DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED... ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
NATIONS MID SECTION. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY AND SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BUT THE TORNADO
THREAT CAN NOT BE DISCOUNTED ENTIRELY.

IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS...THE MOISTURE LADEN
AIR MASS COULD ALSO LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY FINALLY ALLOWING A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TO ADVANCE INTO
THE STATE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN CONCERN. THE AREA
OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG THE BOUNDARY ITSELF AND WILL COVER A MUCH
LARGER AREA THAN TODAY OR FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

56

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
728 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

ARZ031-032-039-310115-
CONWAY AR-FAULKNER AR-PERRY AR-
728 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN PERRY...
FAULKNER AND SOUTHEASTERN CONWAY COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

AT 725 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TOAD SUCK...OR 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CONWAY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CONWAY...             WOOSTER...            TWIN GROVES...
  TOAD SUCK...          SPRINGHILL...         PICKLES GAP...
  MENIFEE...            GUY...                GREENBRIER...
  ENOLA...              HOLLAND...            BEAVER FORK LAKE...
  WOOLLY HOLLOW SP...   SODA VALLEY...        SHADY GROVE...
  ROUND MTN...          REPUBLICAN...         NOGAL...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 116 AND 130.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN!

LAT...LON 3537 9239 3521 9217 3497 9251 3508 9266
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 222DEG 24KT 3507 9253

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
735 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SE NORMAN             34.44N 93.65W
05/30/2013                   MONTGOMERY         AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 8 WAS REPORTED TO BE FLOODED.

&&

55

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
754 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0747 PM     HAIL             1 E GLENWOOD            34.33N 93.53W
05/30/2013  E1.00 INCH       PIKE               AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

55